[Trpltrbl]

fred, on Oct 8 2005, 06:32 PM, said:

Jlall, on Oct 8 2005, 06:28 PM, said:

To answer fred's, I think low to the 9 then low to the Q. Because of the spots, we cannot pick up any 4-1 breaks, so 3-2's are the only relevant cases. A then low to the 9 if T/J drops wins against KT and KJ off, but loses to Kx(2 cases) off, and also JT off. So low to the 9 is better by 3-2 in terms of cases (could look up percentages).

You may be wondering why A then low up to the Q9 loses to Kx offside since you could duck, but if that was your plan you'd lose to Jx and Tx off.

Suppose you start by playing low to the 9 (the correct play). This loses to the 10 or J. On the second round, LHO follows with the only remaining small spot card.

You sure it is right to play the Queen now?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Yes, even though it is only 44,0870% of getting 4 tricks.
But playing the Q is correct play now.

GBB

[han]

Please provide more digits next time so that we can learn something from it Mike.

[fred]

Stephen Tu, on Oct 9 2005, 05:40 PM, said:

Is it really 95% of players? I often have trouble with deciding how much credit to give opponents. At what level of competition does it stop being right to deviate from the "book" line to cater to bad play when encoutering an unknown opponent? 1st day Blue Ribbon, 2nd day, 3rd day? Bracket 1 in a typical regional? Bracket 2?

I was trying to be conservative when I used 95%.

I think that if you consider all of the world's bridge players, the number would be well over 99%.

I would suggest that you never assume that anyone has made a play like this unless:

1) You have heard of this person before
2) You have reason to believe that they are strong player
3) They appear to be paying attention

Or unless you know the person habitually gives remainder count of course

Probably most of the players who make it to the last day of the Blue Ribbon Pairs are capable of this play, but it is the sort of play that anyone could miss if they were not paying attention. I suspect that at least half of the players who made it to the last day of the Blue Ribbons would miss this play more often than not in practice.

You have to judge each situation as it arises. Some book plays are obviously harder than others and the very notions of "hardness" varies from person to person. In my experience the principle of "don't give your opponents a lot of credit unless they have given you reason to think otherwise" has worked well.

I think you will find that mistakes are a lot more common than good plays when you are playing against strangers.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[kfay]

Good thread

[nigel_k]

han, on Oct 8 2005, 05:54 AM, said:

AQ98

xxxx

(Motivated by a recent comment of hrothgar)

edit: must win 3 tricks.

If you start with the 8 off dummy, how often do they smoothly play low from Kx?

[JLOGIC]

kfay, on Jul 18 2010, 01:39 PM, said:

Good thread

lol I was like what was I on during this thread then I saw it was 5 years old

[655321]

nigel_k, on Jul 18 2010, 03:22 PM, said:

If you start with the 8 off dummy, how often do they smoothly play low from Kx?

If they don't duck smoothly you can break even with the low to 9, low to 8 line.
If they do duck smoothly you lose an extra trick.

[nige1]

Thank you Fred, I learned something new