I do not know what I would lead at the table: heck, I barely know what I want to lead after almost twenty minutes of thought
I was going with the
♥ lead, and probably would at the table. Certainly, it is the 'safer' lead, in terms of the post-mortem. Failing to lead partner's suit when doing so is the only way to set a contract is one of the worst bridge sins.
But we have some clues as to how the cards lie.
RHO seems happy to blast slam with no support from partner, no effort to cue bid or use keycard. So he should be ready for a
♥ lead, altho being both young and crazy he may (1) assume that he can bluff me out of my normal lead (he can, he can!) or (2) assume that unsupported trump suits of AKQxxxx are no-loser suits.
If RHO's gamble was the only clue, I'd join with Justin.
The second clue gets me to lead a
♠.
No, I'm not trying for a ruff
Where is the
♠ suit?
Partner will not hold 5 decent
♠ (no michaels) Partner will not usually hold 5 poor
♠: might michaels then with 5=5 and might (should) blast 4
♥ with 5=6, over my 2
♥ overbid (I would bid 3
♥)
So
♠ rate to be 444 around the table and LHO will not likely hold 4 good ones: no easy 2
♠ bid over my 2
♥. Similarly, RHO could have bid 3
♠ over 3
♥ with a good hand and 4 good
♠: if only to hear partner's bid.
So I think that RHO is ready for a
♥ lead and that he is gambling that he will get one.
QJxx xx AKQJxx x opp Kxxx void x AKQxxxxx or QJxx Ax AKJxxx x opp Kxxx void Qx AKQxxxx
Yes, the constructions are strained, but the bidding is odd, and that suggests odd hands.
I have absolutely no confidence in any of this
♠ 100,
♥ 98, others -20, is my ranking.
PS I hate playing young and crazy... I have no idea what is going on, because I don't think like they do. Make them old and crazy, and I have no such problem...
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari