[Rebound]

Scoring: IMP

5 BRD match, swiss.

---

The auction has gone: 1♥ - (2♦) - 4♠* - (5♦) -

What do you do now?

I ask because I was given some quite strident advice regarding this hand by our teammates, espousing a view with which I whole-heartedly disagree.

*Incidentally, I took this as natural. EKB was not in play and I have not been able to think of any other useful treatment, but I welcome your comments.

[Winstonm]

This is brutal. Seems to me the question to ask is whose hand will be more valuable to whom. Will South's be of more value in a spade fit or will North's be more valuable in 5 hearts? There may be a good and valid reason to either pass or double but someone will have to explain it to me because I know at the table I wouldn't pass or double. My choices would be between 5H and 5S. Unless partner holds the K of hearts my hand isn't that good for him, especially with a spade lead; however, his KJ, KQ, AJ or whatever of spades with one baby heart may well be enough in hearts.

I can't find a better call right now that 5H. This bid doesn't have to end the auction and partner is entitled to find another call if he thinks his hand warrants that action.

Whether this direct action shows a diamond control is unsure, but it seems if partner had all the cover cards necessary for 6H/6S to be laydown he could have found a better bid than 4S. I really wouldn't think he has to hold much more than:
KQJxxxx, x, xx, Jxx or similar.

Wrong again, I'm sure. But also sure someone here will show me the errors in my thinking.

Winston

[FrancesHinden]

First of all, this is not a forcing pass auction for me. Partner's 4S bid showed a desire to play in 4S, with no further comment on his hand. If he had a serious spade hand, he would have bid 2S (if that were forcing), or 3S if necessary. That means I don't have enough to bid a slam.

So my choices are double, pass, 5H, or 5S.

Double is insane. It could be making.
I'm not that keen on 5S, although obviously it could work. I can see spades playing very badly when we can't control diamonds.

I think I'm a reluctant 5H bidder. Though it's clear this could go horribly wrong.

[whereagles]

5♥ for me too.

[TheoKole]

Great hand, you have a very tough decision, and I hope you have an understanding partner!

I read most of the opponents strength as being on my left, as I believe my partner will and he will probably will not be inclined to take any finesses into LHO (I hope the opponents don't lead a club . Maybe a ruffing finesse in ♥ will work.

I will not double this since LHO may have a major 2 suiter in the the reds 0-4-6-3 would not surprise me. I assume with 5-5 and 6-5 in the minors he has Unusual 2NT available.

The only question is whether I bid 5 ♥ or 5 ♠ and this will depend on how I believe each suit will play as trumps.

The opponents have at least 10 diamonds between them so partner has at most 2 diamonds. As a result I am not that worried about getting tapped as dummy or declarer. While both hearts and spades rate to lose a trick as trump, the hearts may be able to be brought in without a loser as a side suit , which will be critical to making game.

As a result I would bid 5 ♠.

Theo

[mike777]

Between 5S or 6S for me. Hopefully I have not hesitated too long and can bid a confident sounding 6S now..

If I have hestiated too long then I X.

[Fluffy]

Whatever your team mates said, it seems wrong, because the decision here is far from clear whatever the action you took.

I am in the darkness here, I taste for a double withoutconviction, but knowing my opponents would change my decision.

[joker_gib]

Yes this is darkness !

We are NV, I have ♥ and ♣ and partner has ♠, I think I will take the money (I hope) and just double.

Alain

[TheoKole]

Jlall, on Oct 3 2005, 09:22 AM, said:

X.

Tryin to give up a double game swing lol. Seriously, I have spent a long time thinking about this hand and a make is quite unlikely given our club holding. If LHO has the KJ of clubs they still may not be home, we could get a heart ruff or we may be able to cash a spade.

Making 5 of a major seems like a stretch. First we have to guess which one, then we have to play it despite obvious problems playing in both majors. In spades, if we are able to set up hearts then partner probably has a stiff which means good news for defending 5D X, and we still arent out of the woods in 5S. In hearts it's not hard to envision never getting to dummy to enjoy the spades and take all of our finesses. In fact I find it hard to construct a hand where we can make 5H. Maybe AQJ seventh of spades and the king onside but then the opponents can lead spades after cashing a diamond to kill the dummy, so we'd also need to be able to pull all the trumps before they could lead 2 spades...in which case we were getting at least 300 vs 5D. Bidding 5H seems like a save to me, and I see no reason to expect to go minus in the long run against 5D.

BTW Winston, I agree with the hand you constructed, but does that really argue for a 5H bid? Even 5S would be a lucky make, but 5H appears to be hopeless, while chances against 5D are good (especially in the layouts where 5S makes).

Justin, I agree that 5 hearts seems hopeless, but 5 spades has real chances.

You are right that if we can make 5 spades that we can also beat 5 Diamonds X but can we beat it by enough, this is what makes it a very tough decision.

Perhaps I should have stated that I would bid 5 ♠ with my regular partner, (I have not seen him even once make a 4 spade call like this and losing 2 tricks in the trump suit), if he loses a trick in trumps then he will have KQJxxxxx
or AKJxxxxx or AQJxxxxx. It helps to know your partners style in these situations.

If we cannot make 5 ♠I expect it indeed to be a good save against 5 ♦.

However I am still worried about a club lead .

Theo

[Walddk]

FrancesHinden, on Oct 3 2005, 10:34 AM, said:

Double is insane. It could be making.

Well, I guess Justin, Alain and I must live with being called insane. I would double too. Too much guesswork as to whether 5♥ or 5♠ will be right (or wrong), so I will go for what I think is the sure plus.

Like Justin, looking at my club holding, I think it's unlikely that they will make 5♦. If I really have ♣AQ on my left, it will surely not make the prospect of making 5 of a major any better.

Yes, 5♥ and/or 5♠ could be profitable saves, but they might as well be phantom saves. I am a subscriber to Ron Klinger's theory:

"The 5-level belongs to the opponents".

Roland

[pclayton]

Well I guess I pass, but I'm a lot closer to doubling than I am to bidding.

After a lot of thought on this one, I don't want to shut up partner holding AK-8th of spades with a double. But I give double a 9/10.

[pigpenz]

i think i would pass, partner knows i have two quicks, leave the dec up to him

[Walddk]

Jlall, on Oct 3 2005, 04:51 PM, said:

On a side note, is AK eigth really possible? Two people have mentioned this, but it seems like a very strong holding opposite an opener. I think I would start with 2 with that, but I could be a minority.

Add me to the minority then. Too good for 4♠ with 7 likely tricks opposite an opener. 2♠ is fine; spades will win the battle later anyway if you feel like it.

Roland

[mikeh]

5♠

Partner will probably have nothing outside the ♠ suit, and will probably have a ♠ loser: altho we may get lucky (AQJxxxxx with the K onside is one possibility)

I will be hoping for a small ♦ lead: I would not worry about a ♣ lead on this auction: my concern would be the ♦Q or such, followed by a ♣ switch.

My best guess is that both contracts (5♠ and 5♦) are down one, but 5 imps is a small premium to pay if that is the case.

Double is a very close second. 5♥ a distant 4th (because I may never see dummy, and may end up leading both ♥ and ♣ from my hand)

Pass is always a possibility (and my 3rd choice in real life) for a certified chicken such as me, but I would never admit to it in print

BTW, it is getting these consistently right that is probably the greatest single factor that separates the truly great pairs (players) from the merely technically competent experts. Watch the Italians, in particular: their ability to go right at this level is astounding. So long as you have the right basic thinking in place, you ought not to be criticized for making a decision that did not work well here.

[Winstonm]

Jlall, on Oct 3 2005, 09:22 AM, said:

X.

Tryin to give up a double game swing lol. Seriously, I have spent a long time thinking about this hand and a make is quite unlikely given our club holding. If LHO has the KJ of clubs they still may not be home, we could get a heart ruff or we may be able to cash a spade.

Making 5 of a major seems like a stretch. First we have to guess which one, then we have to play it despite obvious problems playing in both majors. In spades, if we are able to set up hearts then partner probably has a stiff which means good news for defending 5D X, and we still arent out of the woods in 5S. In hearts it's not hard to envision never getting to dummy to enjoy the spades and take all of our finesses. In fact I find it hard to construct a hand where we can make 5H. Maybe AQJ seventh of spades and the king onside but then the opponents can lead spades after cashing a diamond to kill the dummy, so we'd also need to be able to pull all the trumps before they could lead 2 spades...in which case we were getting at least 300 vs 5D. Bidding 5H seems like a save to me, and I see no reason to expect to go minus in the long run against 5D.

BTW Winston, I agree with the hand you constructed, but does that really argue for a 5H bid? Even 5S would be a lucky make, but 5H appears to be hopeless, while chances against 5D are good (especially in the layouts where 5S makes).

I'm sure you are right, Justin. We should have a club trick and a heart trick with reasonable prospects of more. The queston to me is will partner pull the double if he has bid on QJ10xxxxx, Kx, x, Jx and we find dummy with Ax, x, KJxxx, xxxxx and declarer with K, xxx, AQ10xxx, Kxx?

I don't think there is anyway to know which hand he holds - although the 5-level usually belongs to the opponents, we are guessing at the point and off 300 should be the worst for us.

But I'm probably wrong here - maybe the right question to be asking is were we strongly the favorite to make 4S? I don't think so.

Maybe with all this doubt the right call is pass - after all, if you don't have a pretty clear idea of the right thing to do why do anything?

Winston

[Rebound]

Thank you for your comments, everyone. Our teammate trotted out the maxim mentioned by Roland (err may I call you Roland ? ) , i.e. that the 5-level is for the opponents, but in such a way as to blindly assert that I should have passed regardless of my hand. I believe the above discussion is sufficient evidence that it is not a clear-cut as all that.

As it happens, I have been giving this hand a lot of thought and have come to the conclusion that I agree now with the doublers whereas I called 5♠ on the actual hand. Frankly, though, it was my teammate's notion that I should pass regardless of my hand that prompted me to post. One suggested double would be ok, but the other was insistent I ought to have passed in any event, a rather silly notion if you ask me.

Here's my reasoning: I believe it is unlikely we can make 5 hearts or spades since I think partner will take a 2♠ call with such a hand. I picture a hand which would have opened a minimum-type 3 or 4 spades. AQJ or KQJ +xxxx with nothing outside, for example. Partner's actual hand was something like AQJxxxx xx xx xx.

Incidentally, in the actual event, LHO doubled after I bid 5♠ and all passed. The opening lead was a low club. Partner went up A. I agreed with this play.

The spade hook won but my RHO showed out. As a result, partner was down 1 even tho the heart K was also onside . It turns out that if she takes the club finesse at t-1, it wins and she has an extra entry to dummy to play hearts at my LHO for no spade losers. (Hearts were split 7-2-2-2) So, even with three onside kings the contract still went down.

BTW, would you finesse at t-1?

I forgot to mention that our chickens**t teammates let them play in 4♥. I think they were trying to make themselves feel better. We lost that round to the team that eventually beat us for 1st overall. The other large swing on the round was due to misdefense by them which allowed the opponents to make an unmakeable game.

This post has been edited by Rebound: 2005-October-03, 12:56

[Walddk]

Rebound, on Oct 3 2005, 08:50 PM, said:

Thank you for your comments, everyone.  Our teammate trotted out the maxim mentioned by Roland (err may I call you Roland ? ) , i.e. that the 5-level is for the opponents

By all means, that's my name after all (blame it on my parents)

I and others were deemed "insane" by one, and yet double was the winning bid. I much prefer to be called Roland than insane.

Roland