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Misfitting 11 count Go for it?

#21 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 14:43

Hannie, on Sep 20 2005, 01:40 PM, said:

Agree, even though I chose not to force to game after 1S-2H-2S, I would make a GF 2H bid playing 2/1. I don't think that this is a contradiction.

Interesting in Acol you do not force to game but with 2/1 and less info you do. In Acol I take the risk and force to game but with 2/1 and less info I prefer a semiforce 1nt :).

Perhaps because I hope my Acol partners open more soundly than my 2/1?:)
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#22 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 14:53

You are absolutely right Mike. In the Acol auction I have more information, namely that partner is minimal, no heart support and extra spade length. In 2/1 I have to make a decision right away and I don't have all this negative news yet.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#23 User is offline   MickyB 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 14:55

Agreed Hannie, this is a 2 bid playing 2/1. It is just too hard to express your values otherwise.
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#24 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-20, 15:00

This seems like a 2/1 in any system unless you open reallllly light. Even then...its close.
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#25 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 15:28

MickyB, on Sep 20 2005, 04:55 PM, said:

Agreed Hannie, this is a 2 bid playing 2/1. It is just too hard to express your values otherwise.

Now for something completely different (aka an alternative view).... I will try to express it using ZAR but you guys already know this without ever mentioning ZAR.. what do you do with 11 misfit?

What would ZAR say? Partner has at least 5, we have one, that is a difference of four. We have six hearts, partner rates to have on average 2 or 3, that is difference of 4 or so. And if partner is 5-2 in the majors, there is at least one more difference in the minors, if 6-2 or 5-3, difference of at least two in the minors. So his "mifit points" are in the range of 7 or 8 points.

Can you use this? Perhaps. You have 29 ZAR points (11 hcp, 3 Control points, 15 DP). So your partners 25 minimum (he opened ), your 29 comes to a minimum of 54 points. This suggest game. On the other hand, if partner lacks hearts, you have to subtract the misfit points (average 8), giving a total of 54-8 = 46.

But instead of subtracting the misfit points, you can add them if (and only if), you have a superfit. If you think this way, you might play 1S-3H as invitational with 6 card suit. This way, if your partner happens to hold a heart fit, he will carry on. Without it, he will pass. The DANGER here, however is if partner has and . You could have a modest fit (4-4) or a superfit (5-4). Does that make a difference? Well, without superfit, no, not really. If partner has 4, according to zar, you get 2 pts for KQ, and 2 points for x of spades (bringing your total to 31). To make 5, your partner needs only 26....So, if you bid 3, you risk your partner passing with 4 or 5 and a minimum hand, which might be just what you need for game in clubs.

So, according to ZAR analysis, you should bid 3 when you know you have no fit, and bid 2 when you have one. Sigh. Fortunately, I have learned from the foot of the master (Ritong) that the right bid with north is 2 (minimum hcp with five plus spades and four plus clubs). So right or wrong, my auction would be...

2 - 2NT (asking, gf - we might be 6=3 in )
3 - 5 (3 = five clubs), 5, well, it turns out not to be so wonderful)
Pass

The ZAR point counters would say, partner wth 5-5 in blacks gives you at least 10 misfit points, to go with your original 29 (count fit or misfit points, not both), that comes to 39+25 for partner or minimum 64.. why not blackwood, why not slam. Another advantage of Roman 2. It has limited value. Partner with 5-5 (or better), has at least 14 DP, if he has two ACES (12 more) for 26 total, he could not have more than one king. There just isn't enough room in has hand for enough honors (AQxxx x Kx Axxxx for example is maximum he could hold in hcp with this bid. So I would try game.

BTW, since I play this roman 2 bid, if partner opened 1, I WOULD bid 3 invitational with this hand. The reason being, if partner has he has extra values, and he will bid again, and if he has fit, he will not pass. The Roman 2 provides some safety in the 3 bid with this hand.. reverse the minors, and, sigh, I would have to respond 2 as well.... :-(
--Ben--

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Posted 2005-September-20, 16:11

Does ZAR take into account the T98 of hearts? From your analysis it would seem not.
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Posted 2005-September-20, 16:16

Jlall, on Sep 20 2005, 06:11 PM, said:

Does ZAR take into account the T98 of hearts? From your analysis it would seem not.

As I said in the ZAR post a few days ago, one problem with ZAR is it treats, KJ5432 the same as KJ9876.... so no, just like three days ago, Zar still ignores the T98 of hearts.
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Posted 2005-September-20, 16:19

inquiry, on Sep 20 2005, 05:16 PM, said:

Jlall, on Sep 20 2005, 06:11 PM, said:

Does ZAR take into account the T98 of hearts? From your analysis it would seem not.

As I said in the ZAR post a few days ago, one problem with ZAR is it treats, KJ5432 the same as KJ9876.... so no, just like three days ago, Zar still ignores the T98 of hearts.

Sorry I stopped reading the thread (for obvious reasons). I did not know if there was some adjustment from the base count for the T98.

I think the T98 is what makes this hand really powerful. Even opposite a stiff you have a decent shot at a 1 loser suit, and opposite something like Jx or xx they really come into play.
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