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rhm, on 2014-August-04, 02:28, said:
Sorry but I do not understand this analysis. Maybe somebody can enlighten me.
I did not mean that running the club jack to be a terrible play. That play is fine.
What I do not understand even with your explanation is, what ducking with QT8x was supposed to accomplish.
Not covering the jack still looks to me poor.
When holding ♣QT8x the ♣J is an unusual play obviously designed to avoid that South gets the lead to push spades through.
It seems to me obvious (from South perspective) once declarer plays the jack, he has made up his mind and will let it run if it is not covered.
South can see that declarer's efforts are bound to fail if only he covers.
I can not come up with a layout from South perspective where ducking puts declarer even to a losing guess he might get wrong in clubs when South holds ♣QT8x.
You claim declarer might rise with the king to try his fortunes in hearts.
But rising with the king can never be right.
The heart option is open to declarer even if the jack loses to North's hypothetical queen.
And running the jack, even if it looses to North hypothetical queen, gives declarer time to test the clubs before committing himself to the heart option.
So rising with the king is a losing play, which can never gain.
Rainer Herrmann
I did not mean that running the club jack to be a terrible play. That play is fine.
What I do not understand even with your explanation is, what ducking with QT8x was supposed to accomplish.
Not covering the jack still looks to me poor.
When holding ♣QT8x the ♣J is an unusual play obviously designed to avoid that South gets the lead to push spades through.
It seems to me obvious (from South perspective) once declarer plays the jack, he has made up his mind and will let it run if it is not covered.
South can see that declarer's efforts are bound to fail if only he covers.
I can not come up with a layout from South perspective where ducking puts declarer even to a losing guess he might get wrong in clubs when South holds ♣QT8x.
You claim declarer might rise with the king to try his fortunes in hearts.
But rising with the king can never be right.
The heart option is open to declarer even if the jack loses to North's hypothetical queen.
And running the jack, even if it looses to North hypothetical queen, gives declarer time to test the clubs before committing himself to the heart option.
So rising with the king is a losing play, which can never gain.
Rainer Herrmann
I think the previous two threads explained why declarer might rise with the king, as he would expect to be able to block the spades when North has ♣Qx. Against you I would have risen with the king, but then you would have covered with QT8x, so that I would have been home. One thing that is certain is that covering is not going to work as declarer will block the spades, and rising is good enough against Qx,Tx,8x,Q,T,8 is the spades can be blocked, or if the lead is from a doubleton.