Fluffy, on Apr 22 2004, 07:39 AM, said:
It seems nobody agress with my restricted choice deductions, so even without them:
Actually, I am firm believer in restricted choice applying to the opening lead. The fact that WEST made a safe club lead increases the chances that the
♥Q will be onsides. So both of my first lines are actually higher than the precentages quoted, since both fall back on the
♥Q being onside. It will, however, affect both of those lines roughly equally, so can be ignored from a practical point of view.
Now, for some of your other comments...
Quote
rectifyinge count in ♠ is worthless, the ONLY squeeze you can manage after that is the show-up squeeze, since on the other cases finding the ♥Q with the ♠ is just as good as the finese.
Well, "rectifying" the count in
♠ makes the slam if
♠ are 3-3, or if in ducking a
♠ to the ten to rectify, you catch EAST with Jx or Qx of spades. The total odds of either of these (3-3 or doubleton/singleton spade honor on sides) is a respectiful 52.5%. So to suggest that it is "worthless" is a horrible understatement. It actually has slightly better odds than cashing the AK and hoping to catch the an honor. After that fails, you can still try cashing the high
♥ from hand for the unlikely event that EAST has the stiff
♥Q (West having stiff helps, but falls into the same odds as hook), which as you said is about 1.2%. Failing that you can fall back on the
♥ hook, with the added benefit if WEST has the long spade, you have a showup squeeze that will allow you to make if EAST happens to have doubleton
♥Q, of if he has three
♥ to Q and for reason know to him only, thinks he has to hold onto long
♦ to the JACK and figures you might hook the
♥ anyway so he pitches one (a pseudo squeeze).
Now for your odds....
Quote
♥Q bare= 1%
♥ finese= 50%
♠honor drops=8%
♥ 3-3= 37.5%
♠+♥ squeeze = about 27% (it doesn´t apply when ♥=3-3 on the calculating, assuming ♥4-2 or worse is about 40%)
Well, technically, the odds of 3-3 split is 35.528, not 37.5, and we probabably should round bare queen off to 1.2. The odds of dropping a spade honor is 8.1. But these changes have little effect on your estimate of 78%, I calculate it as 78.75% For those who need to see how this is done, this is how you combine the chances....
Odds of dropping spade honor, 8.1, that leave 91.9% remaining. Try to drop the singleton
♥Q, is 1.2%x91.9%, so that improve your odds of making to 9.01%. Of the roughly 91% of the time the first two ploys fail, you will make on the
♥ hook (this will be actually higher because restricted choice will apply, see above, but we will ignore for this calculation).. so 0.5x.90 which is 45.5% additional, raising the odds to 54.5%. Now the chance of 3-3 split is 35.5%, but this only helps after all the above feails, so this is 35.5 of the reaming 45.5% when earlier lines fail, this raises the odds to 70.67% of success. Now, you have your squeeze possibility. If the hand holding 4+
♥ also happens to hold either 4+
♠ or QJx of
♠, he will be squeezed. I calculate the odds of this as being, 27.59%, raising the odds of this line to 78.8%.
Of course to be technical, the line of playing off two top hearts, will include cashing one
♠, so you get that 8.1% chance as well, and if you happen to catch a 6-0
♥ split, you can chance horses after the first round of
♥. So the minimum odds of that line are, 79.7. And again, both these lines have a better chance because of restricted choice as it relates to the opening lead, but what ever effect it has on the odds, it will affect both nearly equally.
Ben
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ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
