[pclayton]

I hope all of you got to tune in for the Youth Championships from Sydney last night.

USA1 was trailing by about 30 going into the last segment. Joe Grue played 6♥ with this trump suit after already losing a trick to the A♦:

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(sue me if the small spots aren't perfect)

He played the ♥6 to the Q, observing the 9, and ran the ♥5 on the way back! Truely amazing.

I'd lke to hear other's opinion of this play. Certainly he needed a swing on the board, but I'm curious about the restricted choice ramifications of this combination.

This differs from the classic combination:

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After a lead to (say the King), the Q/J appears on your right. Finessing offers approximately 2:1 odds.

In the subject hand, the 10 / 9 and even the J from J-9 are all 'equals'. How does this fact affect the relevant odds of the card combination?

[glen]

I'll repeat what I posted on rec.games.bridge:

Great hand. Grue knows that:

- EW play polish club, and 1C often weak notrump with 2+Cs
- East doesn't have much in points
- East has at least five clubs for raising to 2C, and since quite weak,
highly likely 6 or 7 clubs
- so West has 3 or 4 clubs
- West didn't return a D at trick 2, to give partner ruff, so not 3Ds, and
either 1 or 2
- so West is 4=4=1=4/4=3=2=4/3=4=2=4/4=4=2=3
- 3=4=2=4 is less likely give East didn't show 4Ss
- there was no attempt to cash club A which West is known to have - for
example if South was 2=4=6=1 (wild bidding due to state of match) and trumps
were 3-2, the spade switch at trick two just allowed the impossible contract
to make. (this last point is wrong as noted on rec.games.bridge - South was dummy - also Grue has been quoted as saying that West would return a ♦ if Ax and only 3 trumps, so he had a read on the hand at trick 2).

So best played hand of the year.

[inquiry]

It was a remarkable hand, but you left out the bidding and play clues, the full auction was...

Scoring: IMP

Hands rotated so Grue is south... he was sitting north really.

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(1C) - DBL - (2C) - 3C
(Ps) - 4H  - (Ps) - 5C
(Ps) - 6H all pass

It is worth noting that a club lead would defeat the slam, but ok...

West lead the diamond six (2nd best from bad suits) to the ACE and back came the two of spade. If West had 3 diamonds, there would have been a diamond ruff. So diamonds appear to be 2-2, but singleton ACE is possible. As pointed out earlier, the club "raise" here promised legnth is clubs. Anyone know how long? And opener's double of 3C promised something, probalby an opening 1NT or club support (since he had both). But surely extra, so the 2C bid was made on nothing, and thus must be really long clubs.

Grue knew that opener lacked a five card major, had (presumable) 2D. I certainly would not have worked out 4423 instead of 4324 but it surely wasn't a wild guess in the dark or swinging through the trees looking to pick up imps. It was a very nicely played slam. Knowing he made it before seeing the play (since I was asleep when it was played) took the fun out of it.

[awm]

Watching on vugraph, there also appeared to be a significant break in tempo before the Polish defender (east in the diagram, west in real life) played to the second heart. This would be a mistake of course, but the players (and especially the Poles, who were playing the entire final) were very tired.

[nickf]

I've been on site all tourney and spoke to Grue in the bar last night. He played Araszkiewicz to be 1-2 in the reds and did not play the hand on any huddles albeit small by Buras.

Breaks in tempo are often the fault of the operator not the player.

nickf
sydney

[kenberg]

American Youth, in a bar? Oh my. Oh my. Congrats guys. What a hand!

Ken

[FrancesHinden]

To answer the original point, running the 5 on the second round is not with the odds looking at the suit in isolation.

Deducing from the auction and play to the first few tricks that trumps are 4-1 is a different matter.

[kenberg]

My thoughts on the restricted choice question:

For a moment, let's treat the 9,T,J as indistinguishable (I'll get back to this). Declarer plays towards the Q and one of these cards appears on his left. He can pick up the suit if that card is stiff by finessing, and pick up the suit by playing back to the Ace if it is not. The three holdings where he must finesse are stiff 9,T,J. The four holdings where he should not finesse are 9T,TJ,J9 and 9TJ. Roughly 4-3 odds in favor of declining the finesse. Clear-cut odds, but not so overwhelming that they cannot be overpowered by other evidence, as happened. For example if declarer is convinced there cannot be three cards on his left, the odds look pretty even.

Are 9,T,J indistinguishable? Obviously only the case of J9 needs discussion and in the case at hand I think the answer is yes. Declarer is in 6, he has lost a trick, and he is leading from his hand towards the Q. Declarer holds the AK or we needn't fret. The only hope is that he will guess wrong in the way he plays the suit. Throwing the J from J9 has good chances to be a successful falsecard in most games, at least if delarer has some other push towards the finnesse. At a high level the J and 9 should be randomly thrown from J9.

That's my opinion. This never would have occurred to me had you not brought it up.

Ken

[fred]

kenberg, on Aug 18 2005, 05:25 PM, said:

My thoughts on the restricted choice question:

For a moment, let's treat the 9,T,J as indistinguishable (I'll get back to this). Declarer plays towards the Q and one of these cards appears on his left. He can pick up the suit if that card is stiff by finessing, and pick up the suit by playing back to the Ace if it is not. The three holdings where he must finesse are stiff 9,T,J. The four holdings where he should not finesse are 9T,TJ,J9 and 9TJ. Roughly 4-3 odds in favor of declining the finesse. Clear-cut odds, but not so overwhelming that they cannot be overpowered by other evidence, as happened. For example if declarer is convinced there cannot be three cards on his left, the odds look pretty even.

Are 9,T,J indistinguishable? Obviously only the case of J9 needs discussion and in the case at hand I think the answer is yes. Declarer is in 6, he has lost a trick, and he is leading from his hand towards the Q. Declarer holds the AK or we needn't fret. The only hope is that he will guess wrong in the way he plays the suit. Throwing the J from J9 has good chances to be a successful falsecard in most games, at least if delarer has some other push towards the finnesse. At a high level the J and 9 should be randomly thrown from J9.

That's my opinion. This never would have occurred to me had you not brought it up.

Ken

I agree with this analysis, but:

1) I can promise you that, even at the highest levels, it is far from routine to play the J from J9 doubleton in this kind of situation. I agree with Kenberg that this is a play that a really good player should be able to figure out, but in practice there are few really good players who would even consider such a play (and it's not like you can spend a lot of time at the table considering this play or it will be completely ineffective when you eventually figure out it is a good play).

2) Kenberg implies this in his post, but does not say so explicitly: Not all cases are equally likely. In particular, J10, J9, 109, and J109 are equally likely as are J, 10, and 9, but each 3-2 break is a little more likely than each 4-1 break.

As a pure math problem Grue's play was definitely against the odds, but I do think he had enough information from the bidding and early defense to know that his choice of play was at least even money to succeed. Hats off to Grue for having the courage to make this play. Imagine how he would be feeling right now if he had gone down in his slam (and what his partner, his teammates, and all the spectators would have thought).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[mgtusi]

Congratulations to Grue for this foresight play.

But to do that, add to a good technique, a clever reasonment and some courage (agree with Fred, if ♥ would be 3-2...), you need a very good reputation !

Imagine Buratti making such a play...

[hrothgar]

I was the Vugraph operator when Grue was playing this hand... Completely nerve-racking experience - I was terrified that I had some kind of tell that would give everything away.

However, I'm very glad that Joe made the hand (even if I had money on Poland)
He's a really nice guy and a talented player.
I'm glad to see him get some more time in the sun...

[jdulmage]

Yes, excellent play. However, there was a lot to explain how he knew to hook there.