[temp3600]

Scoring: IMP

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West leads a small spade against your 6♦.

[Trumpace]

I am confident that this is not optimal.

I will win the lead. Draw trumps. Cash second spade. Then play a heart to the Q.

Say East wins and returns a heart.

On the last trump I will be left with ♣AQ and ♥T in dummy. Discard the ♥T if the ♥J has not appeared and then take a view in clubs (finesse or drop) after watching the discards closely.

Assuming I guess correctly in clubs, this is down if East has both the remaining Kings and West has the ♥J. Chances of making are around 87.5%. (Hope calculation is correct).

[han]

I would play a heart to the 10 instead of the queen (LHO might have gone up with the king, they are otherwise equivalent). For the rest I would play the same, but I don't estimate my chances as high as Trumpace.

[Double !]

I would play this hand under an assumed name.

Seems right to ruff out clubs, using trumps/ trump spots for entries if needed, cash spades, (i.e.: strip the hand as much as possible) and then decide on hearts. I doubt that lho has sngltn H: he didn't lead it. (What is better at that point?: Ace and another, or low to start with?)
Oh, well, this is probably not the best line. Will watch and see what others have to say.

[Trumpace]

Hannie, on Aug 7 2005, 11:27 PM, said:

I would play a heart to the 10 instead of the queen (LHO might have gone up with the king, they are otherwise equivalent). For the rest I would play the same, but I don't estimate my chances as high as Trumpace.

Actually chances of my line isnt 87.5%. It is lesser that that. I guess around 75%.

The case when East has Both Kings and the ♥J is also down.

The line would probably be approx 87.5% if the ♥T was in the south hand.

All this is assuming I guess correctly at the end... which is of course an unreasonable assumption

[Trumpace]

Double !, on Aug 7 2005, 11:51 PM, said:

I would play this hand under an assumed name.

Seems right to ruff out clubs, using trumps/ trump spots for entries if needed, cash spades, (i.e.: strip the hand as much as possible) and then decide on hearts. I doubt that lho has sngltn H: he didn't lead it. (What is better at that point?: Ace and another, or low to start with?)
Oh, well, this is probably not the best line. Will watch and see what others have to say.

I think Ace and a low heart toward Queen, covering West's card as cheaply as poosible could be better that low toward queen/ten without cashing the Ace..

This will work if hearts are 4-2 and honours are divided (or both with west)
OR
hearts are 5-1 and someone has a singleton Honour.
OR
West has all the hearts..


Seems better than the first line I gave. Not sure. Someone needs to calculate.

I remember seeing a similar elimination hand in "Play these Hand with Me" by Terence Reese.

[Fluffy]

I would eliminate ♣ and ♠, then play ♥A+♥, should work whenever I guess or anyonet has any honnor doubleton.

[Double !]

Fluffy, on Aug 8 2005, 06:44 AM, said:

I would eliminate ♣ and ♠, then play ♥A+♥, should work whenever I guess or anyonet has any honnor doubleton.

OK. Thanks
I thought ace and another made more sense. Hopefully something interesting during the play of the other suits and trying to count things out will provide some clue to the heart suit. With my luck, hearts will be 3-3, opps will be counting out my hand, lho will duck 2nd round of hearts (after A and another) and rho will win holding Jxx of hearts.

[Limey_p]

I believe trumpace's line is better: eliminate spades, make a heart play, then fall back on club finesse if no luck.

Fluffy's line is a bit worse than 75% - you are down almost any time rho has both heart honors *plus* sometimes you'll misguess when hearts are 3-3 with split honors.

trumpace's line is never worse than 75% - you need lho to hold your chosen heart honor or the club king.

Also lho's opening lead, presumably away from the spade jack, is a little "interesting". If he held equivalent holdings in spades and another suit, he might have lead the other suit. (This is yet another aspect of restricted choice). Hence there is some increased chance of lho holding one or both kings; this also helps trumpace's line.

A

[the hog]

Fluffy's line offers good chances.

[Fluffy]

Limey_p, on Aug 9 2005, 04:59 AM, said:

I believe trumpace's line is better: eliminate spades, make a heart play, then fall back on club finesse if no luck.

Fluffy's line is a bit worse than 75% - you are down almost any time rho has both heart honors *plus* sometimes you'll misguess when hearts are 3-3 with split honors.

trumpace's line is never worse than 75% - you need lho to hold your chosen heart honor or the club king.

Also lho's opening lead, presumably away from the spade jack, is a little "interesting". If he held equivalent holdings in spades and another suit, he might have lead the other suit. (This is yet another aspect of restricted choice). Hence there is some increased chance of lho holding one or both kings; this also helps trumpace's line.

A

You are right I think, but can never calculate this % in slams acuratelly, because you don't know if West would automatically lead a ♥ if he has singleton, or never a ♣ if he has the K, you cannot put all the info in the ecuation.

[Double !]

Does the chance that, (if one takes the line of eliminating clubs and spades before attacking hearts), even if you guess hearts incorrectly, that you might lose to a dbltn honor on your right, leaving rho endplayed, enter into the equation?
Not disputing, just asking.

[Trumpace]

The elimination line (draw trumps, eliminate spades, clubs, ♥A, ♥ to dummy, covering West's card cheaply) works if:

Hearts are 3-3 ♥J with West. 17.5%
Hearts are 4-2 and honours are divided: 36.5%
Hearts are 4-2 honours with the guy holding 2 hearts: <5%
Hearts are 4-2 with West having 4 cards to KJ: < 3%
Hearts are 5-1 with a singleton honour: 2.5%
6-0 hearts, length with West: 1.5%


Does not seem to beat 75%... (we do need to add epsilon% for stuff like ♣Kx doubleton, inferences from lead etc)

I hope i didn't make any calculation mistake.

[PMetsch]

I would eliminate ♣ and ♠ and play a low heart to the ten.

This will loose only if LHO has ♥K and RHO ♥J and hearts 3-3 or 4-2, so 25%. It will win more than 75% of the time because of ♥5-1 with singleton K or J, all ♥6-0 and ♣K doubleton. (If LHO gets nervous he may step up with ♥K doubleton, though he should count you for 3♥s).

[temp3600]

Thanks for your replies.

It's funny ; when i played this hand on BBO i immediatly went for the complete elimination play, missing the simple line of playing for one well-placed king. It was only a bit afterwards (and after going down when East had ♥KJxx while the ♣K was onside) that i realised i had overlooked it.
So i was wondering, when you first saw the hand, did you weight both lines, or were you, shall i say, immediately inclined towards one, quickly dismissing the other ?

[Limey_p]

PMetsch has proposed another very good line, I believe the best without inferences from the opening lead.

His line wins over trumpace's I think in 3% of cases, when rho has 5 diamonds with both honors and the king of clubs.

On the other hand "75%" is either 74 or 76, depending if you need the honors in the same hands or split. And this difference is in favor of trumpace's line. Also I believe the opening lead suggests that one or both kings are on your left, although as Fluffy says you can never know how much effect this has.

But now we are getting into those small differences that I don't expect to figure out at the table. So at this point it comes down to table feel (if you make it) or bad luck if you don't.

A