mikeh, on 2026-August-29, 15:24, said:
Short term thinking has one winning and playing three rounds of clubs to pitch a spade. That's very short sighted. Wtf are you going to do next, even assuming that the clubs stand up. You still have trump and diamond issues even if the club Jack drops. Bear in mind that if the hand with the heart Ace has the fourth club, the other defender gets a ruff. Meanwhile, you've eliminated an entry to dummy to play on hearts.
My idea is to win and play a heart to the King. If the heart ace is onside, I think I'm cold on a 3-2 trump break. I'm not down yet if the heart ace is offside, though I won't be able to handle 4-1 trump very often.
As for the minors, I'm hoping to be able to get some kind of inferential count and then decide to play for a diamond hook or a minor suit squeeze, or the club Jack dropping. I like my chances but not if I don't stop to THINK at trick one.
Why is it shortsighted to play three clubs? If I can lose two hearts and a diamond, I make the contract. Clubs split more than half the time, and if they get a ruff with the fourth club, much of the time it is going to be with a natural trump trick. If clubs are 5-2, they are very likely to be trumping with a natural trump trick. Or at least a trick they were getting anyway because I'm leading hearts from hand. If I pick up diamonds, I make the hand with this line even if hearts are 4-1. I think that not losing a spade is huge in enhancing your chances.