[jillybean]

Another from the TG

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Do you follow the advice I was given the other night, "bid what you think you can make"?

[mike777]

4C
Partner is UPH
Partner may have 6S
2C overcall of 1D NV always suspicious

Will pass 4S

[P_Marlowe]

4C also says, you are bidding to make, that the hand belongs to your side.

[mikeh]

If you are referring to some advice I gave in another thread, I think you misunderstand. What I meant was that if you know that, say, a game contract is what you think is both ‘what you want to bid’ and ‘no more’ then bid the game. But this means that partner has defined his or her values, such that you know that game is the limit. Here, responder is virtually unlimited and you have a great hand. Bidding 4S would be silly. Slam is possible so you need to tell partner that you have a great hand. A 4C splinter is a reasonable call.

[jillybean]

Mike, I was referring to your comment, and I did understand it as you've described. After the hand here I was asked by more than one kibitzer why not 4♠?
I bid 3♣ and 4♠ over 3♠ - a direct 4♣ is much better and I guess 4♠ preferable to 3♣

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+11 so no damage, this time

Michael(777) 2♣ overcall should be a decent hand

[mike777]

 jillybean, on 2026-July-11, 07:40, said:

Mike, I was referring to your comment, and I did understand it as you've described. After the hand here I was asked by more than one kibitzer why not 4♠?
I bid 3♣ and 4♠ over 3♠ - a direct 4♣ is much better and I guess 4♠ preferable to 3♣

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+11 so no damage, this time

What is the percentage play of the hand at MP for us intermediates out there? Good lesson both in bidding and play.

[mikeh]

Difficult to answer the play issue objectively since I know the exact layout.

Your comment about 2C isn’t one I’d take too seriously. My 2/1 overcalls are generally sound but the one exception is (1D) 2C.

2C is a very powerful way to interfere, since it takes away the entire 1 level, and may give LHO a very difficult problem when he has values and only one major, lacking the length for 2M. Had you passed, it’d go 1D P 1M P and a competent pair is very likely to have a sound auction to the optimum contract. Throw in a 2C overcall and, especially if partner can raise, you’ve created serious problems on many layouts.

Now, the current trend towards 3 level preempts on 6 card suits somewhat offsets the ‘need’ for 2C…if 2C creates problems, so too does 3C.

Anyway….2C definitely doesn’t deny a sound overcall so, as declarer, I’d be inclined to think that the diamond hook was offside. Since I assume south wins the club lead with the Ace, I can place north with the club K, and some length but he passed 2S. I’ll get back to this below.

We have two lines. The heart suit is strongly odds on to provide a diamond pitch. Btw, if one wants to be able to plan plays such as this at the table, one needs some basic knowledge of suit breaks. Absent inferences from the bidding, a suit will be 3=3 35.5% of the time and 4-2/2-4 48.5% of the time. When missing QJxxxx, there will be 8 Qx/Jx holdings and only 6 xx ones…I’m ignoring QJ tight but of course that also gives you 3 heart tricks (4 if it’s onside or you reject the restricted choice play). So you are very likely to be able to establish the heart 9 for a diamond pitch, but this means you are almost always settling for 11 tricks.

What about diamonds? Again, 35.5 a priori for 3-3 and 48.5 for 4-2/2-4. You have entries. Say they tap dummy at trick two…trump to hand, diamond hook, draw trump, diamond to the Ace, ruff a diamond.

If the diamond king is onside, you can set up up the suit given either 3-3 or any 4-2 break and score 12 tricks. If the hook loses, you still get a pitch for a heart if the diamonds are 4-2 or 3-3. Plus there are very slight extra chances.

While I’d expect the diamond to be offside more often than not, x QJxx xx AQJxxx is a 2C overcall nv for me, and maybe he was falsecarding with AKQxxx…improbable but not impossible. There’s no way to sssign meaningful percentages to the diamond inference but I’d go for that suit anyway