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Finesse or not ?

#1 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 05:24

How would you play this (comments on the bidding welcome)



S leads 6-3-A-Q, N switches to 2. 1N is not forcing or semi forcing, opps play standard UK leads, 4th/2nd from bad, top of doubleton

I think I got this wrong, but got away with it, what do you think is the best line ?
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#2 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 14:53

A, ruff, K, A, ruff (high), Q, J looks ok if the suits behave. Can we do better? Almost certainly, as otherwise the hand would not have been posted but this basic line alone surely rules out the finesse as a good idea playing SD.
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#3 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 15:04

View PostGilithin, on 2024-February-10, 14:53, said:

A, ruff, K, A, ruff (high), Q, J looks ok if the suits behave. Can we do better? Almost certainly, as otherwise the hand would not have been posted but this basic line alone surely rules out the finesse as a good idea playing SD.


After you've taken 2 diamond ruffs and drawn 2 rounds of trumps, how do you get back to hand to play Q
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#4 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 16:40

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-February-10, 15:04, said:

After you've taken 2 diamond ruffs and drawn 2 rounds of trumps, how do you get back to hand to play Q

By not screwing up the editing. :lol: You are right of course and can skip it. It does give the defence an extra chance, if a defender with Axx and xx is able to duck J, but that's probably not a big issue in your average Norfolk bridge club, especially if they are on your left.
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#5 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 16:53

View PostGilithin, on 2024-February-10, 16:40, said:

By not screwing up the editing. :lol: You are right of course and can skip it. It does give the defence an extra chance, if a defender with Axx and xx is able to duck J, but that's probably not a big issue in your average Norfolk bridge club, especially if they are on your left.


The problem is with N holding 10x, AK10x, Kxxx, any 3 you've just gone off in a contract you could have made when the J holds and if you play another, S wins and gives his partner a spade ruff. (this was not the actual layout)
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#6 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 18:23

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-February-10, 16:53, said:

The problem is with N holding 10x, AK10x, Kxxx, any 3 you've just gone off in a contract you could have made when the J holds and if you play another, S wins and gives his partner a spade ruff. (this was not the actual layout)

Yes, that is precisely the layout I was describing (South holds Axx and xx in your construction). The question I would ask you is how many of players in your local Norfolk club would duck the A? Against higher level defenders, this would be more of a concern but in the BBO Acol Club I reckon there are well under 5% of opponents that I would worry about finding this with South. With North, it's a bigger concern. As I wrote though, I put this line down just for the basic comparison. I am certain there are better options here; I am just too lazy to calculate the relevant percentages. This is why the forums miss Rainer - he loved that stuff!
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#7 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 19:27

i would have tried 3s over 3c. My hand is so minimal I hate to encourage partner too much. 2s also gives p more room to explore and they surely will not be disappointed with our Jx vs 2 small. 4s might also be a much easier game contract than 5c.

PLAY hmmm rise with Dia A and ruff a dia followed by the spade J and another to the Q if needed to get a 2nd dia ruff. Hope for 33 spades or the T dropping doubleton and 32 trumps. Icky contract.
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#8 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2024-February-10, 19:42

View Postgszes, on 2024-February-10, 19:27, said:

i would have tried 3s over 3c. My hand is so minimal I hate to encourage partner too much. 2s also gives p more room to explore and they surely will not be disappointed with our Jx vs 2 small. 4s might also be a much easier game contract than 5c.

I would have thought 3 over 3 was a no-brainer. I thought the real bidding question here would be 2 or 3 for Opener's rebid, since there are different ways of evaluating a singleton queen. But with game seemingly good, I guess everyone wants to take the high road automatically.
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 01:34

I don’t understand 4C at all. I think it’s a truly hideous call.

As opener, what would you suggest after 1S 1N with AQ109xx AQx x AQx

I suspect that well over 80% of good players would bid 3C.

Now we’d survive 4C since opener would rebid 4S with that hand but anyone who bids 4C with the given hand likely does so with 1=6=2=4 as well and good luck getting to hearts now!

With the actual hand, I disagree…not strongly…with 3H over 3C. I think 3S is best. Yes, we have hearts, but we have no real slam interest, we’re not going to be happy after 3N if that’s his rebid and we don’t want him raising on Hx with 5=2=2=4. We have very good spades in context and our club cards will help him in spades plus we have that delicious diamond stiff.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#10 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 03:42

 Gilithin, on 2024-February-10, 18:23, said:

Yes, that is precisely the layout I was describing (South holds Axx and xx in your construction). The question I would ask you is how many of players in your local Norfolk club would duck the A? Against higher level defenders, this would be more of a concern but in the BBO Acol Club I reckon there are well under 5% of opponents that I would worry about finding this with South. With North, it's a bigger concern. As I wrote though, I put this line down just for the basic comparison. I am certain there are better options here; I am just too lazy to calculate the relevant percentages. This is why the forums miss Rainer - he loved that stuff!


We have a 5-2 spade fit, S has Axxx in that construction not Axx
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#11 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 03:48

What do people think the heart layout is from the lead and switch ?

I correctly picked the heart layout, and wondered whether to go into fantasy land with a beautiful line of play.
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#12 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 06:42

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-February-11, 03:48, said:

What do people think the heart layout is from the lead and switch ?

I correctly picked the heart layout, and wondered whether to go into fantasy land with a beautiful line of play.

3-3, I reckon over 90% chance it is 3-3
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#13 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 15:30

 shyams, on 2024-February-11, 06:42, said:

3-3, I reckon over 90% chance it is 3-3


I didn't think that way, it would be a very odd lead when declarer has at most 4 red cards, I was thinking 62/AK10x all the way, Kxx could be completely disastrous if it finds Q to several opposite Ax/AJ.
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#14 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 15:58

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-February-10, 05:24, said:

opps play standard UK leads, 4th/2nd from bad, top of doubleton

And from KT62?
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#15 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 16:21

 nullve, on 2024-February-11, 15:58, said:

And from KT62?


The 2, but it would be a spectacularly bad lead on this auction
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#16 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2024-February-11, 22:23

Non-expert players (which includes me) lead the unbid suits far more often than situations justify.

If your opps were experts or WC, presumably you would have included that info in the OP. If I am right about your opps level, then I reckon the odds of a 3-3 break are moderate to high.


PS: Yes, the 90% was an exaggeration given that my Sunday drinks were underway (I am presently in India).
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#17 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-12, 04:39

View Postshyams, on 2024-February-11, 22:23, said:

Non-expert players (which includes me) lead the unbid suits far more often than situations justify.

If your opps were experts or WC, presumably you would have included that info in the OP. If I am right about your opps level, then I reckon the odds of a 3-3 break are moderate to high.


PS: Yes, the 90% was an exaggeration given that my Sunday drinks were underway (I am presently in India).


N much better player than S.

The holdings that lead the 6 are K106, K76, K1076, 62, 6, K10762, I don't know what they lead from 1076, depends if they treat is as 3 to an honour or xxx.

I felt the lead from all the K holdings was unattractive, and if the 6 was singleton, that N might have returned a small one.

I then reflected that if the K was with the AK, as a passed hand, N couldn't have A.

Therefore a possible line was to hook the diamond and lead a spade towards the J. S is now totally forked. If he plays the A, the spades run and you simply ruff a diamond later. If he doesn't, you win the J and table the heart J. If N covers, you ruff, pitch a spade on the diamond A, draw trumps ending in dummy and simply concede a trick to 10. If N ducks, you pitch, ruff a heart high, draw trumps and give up a heart.

In the end I played similarly to how you all did, and made when spades were 3-3, but would have been rather more beautiful to do it the other way.
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#18 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2024-February-12, 07:56

View PostCyberyeti, on 2024-February-12, 04:39, said:

In the end I played similarly to how you all did, and made when spades were 3-3, but would have been rather more beautiful to do it the other way.

Have you done the calculations to work out which line is mathematically the best both a priori and under reasonable SD considerations?
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#19 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2024-February-12, 09:41

View PostGilithin, on 2024-February-12, 07:56, said:

Have you done the calculations to work out which line is mathematically the best both a priori and under reasonable SD considerations?


Well it actually depends what you think they'll lead that from, and what you think N will find that switch from.

A priori you need spades 3-3 or K onside (with some bad breaks screwing up both lines) if you assume S wasn't leading away from 3 or 4 to the K.
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#20 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2024-February-13, 17:41

View PostGilithin, on 2024-February-10, 19:42, said:

I would have thought 3 over 3 was a no-brainer. I thought the real bidding question here would be 2 or 3 for Opener's rebid, since there are different ways of evaluating a singleton queen. But with game seemingly good, I guess everyone wants to take the high road automatically.

with JT98xx 3h would be a superior bid. Our current suit has too much risk of losing 3 trump tricks opposite honor x. If we bid 3s, p can then define their hand better for us with a
4d or (4h which we can pass with our 6 card not so great suit) pattern bid. If we bid 3h p might even raise to 4h with a singleton honor if they have no dia stop for 3n.
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