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Can you bear to pass ?

#1 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 09:13



dealt in practice, so vul/form of scoring wasn't relevant, indicate if you think it matters.

How much does partner need to bid or double with one long and one short major ?
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#2 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 09:43

Anything other than pass is seriously tempting fate. Never mind that partner might have some values, there's no way to get to a sensible contract. Partner won't have a 6cM with some values (and wouldn't double if they had that) and this hand doesn't look good for 3NT.
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#3 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 09:56

3N
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#4 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 10:17

Vulnerability and firm of scoring definitely, imo, matter

I can’t imagine them being red. Even my most aggressive partner (who might have K9xxxx at favourable) wouldn’t have bid 3C on this hand without at least 8 of them or some side surprise.

Plus I expect to beat 3C one or two tricks even if partner is broke, and +300 v our possible nv game is no big deal at imps and any plus may be ok at mps

But if they are, as surely they must be, nv, +150 or so may not score well.

If we’re red v white at imps I can’t afford to pass even though 3N will often fail. It will make too often to risk passing.

Given that 1D didn’t promise much, partner needs good values to double….at least a 9 count imo and it had better be a good 9 count….and with both majors, unless he has reasonable diamonds. I can and often would bid 4M over a double, since I have no invitational action available so he shouldn’t be stretching to bid unless he expects 5D to have play should I bid his short major.

Given that, I just can’t pass. But they may have got me. If RHO doubles, I’m going to be really sad.

Partners of mine from twenty years ago would be surprised by my gambling, but contrary to perceived wisdom, it’s possible to become more aggressive as one gets older😀 or am I confusing that with becoming more foolish?
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#5 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 10:48

We know partner is probably short in clubs. Some expert pairs play double as forcing to game here, in which case partner might still hold a reasonable 10-count. For the rest of us we really can't expect more than a 7-count. If we can't finesse in clubs too often I just don't see 9 tricks - we're playing partner for a non-positional spade stopper and filling for our diamonds, and even then we might go off on a heart lead if partner's stopper isn't the ace.

I also think this is a good situation for the LOTT. The opponents have bid at best a 9 card fit, and likely an 8 card fit. We don't have length in the majors, and partner failed to raise our diamonds. I would not be surprised if the par on this deal is 1NT or 2.
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 11:14

Partner's hand is KJ8xxxx, Qx, Jx, xx not telling where the opposing cards are, are you happy with defending 3 ?
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#7 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 11:42

No, and also not with partner.
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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 13:30

View PostDavidKok, on 2023-March-24, 11:42, said:

No, and also not with partner.


What do you want him to do ? 3 is a massive overbid, what are you going to do over it ? and how are you going to feel with the same hand with Qxxxx if he acts ?
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 13:47

View PostDavidKok, on 2023-March-24, 11:42, said:

No, and also not with partner.

What the heck do you want him to bid? 3S?

Opener never has say x KJxx AKxxx Kx when he opens 1D?

I predict a double of any game you bid. Are you happy with partner now? I mean, you weren’t happy with his pass so surely you’re happy with your -500 wherever you land?

Or would you prefer correcting 4H to 4S or is he supposed to bid only 3H?
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 14:35

View Postmikeh, on 2023-March-24, 13:47, said:

What the heck do you want him to bid? 3S?

Opener never has say x KJxx AKxxx Kx when he opens 1D?

I predict a double of any game you bid. Are you happy with partner now? I mean, you weren’t happy with his pass so surely you’re happy with your -500 wherever you land?

Or would you prefer correcting 4H to 4S or is he supposed to bid only 3H?


He doesn't have that often as there are only 12 cards there, but you're making my point slightly differently.
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#11 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2023-March-24, 15:23

View PostCyberyeti, on 2023-March-24, 14:35, said:

He doesn't have that often as there are only 12 cards there, but you're making my point slightly differently.

Picky! Maybe the TD will find an ace for me?
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#12 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 01:50

DavidKok, what is partner supposed to bid. As you said you are not happy, suggest an acceptable alternative to pass?
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#13 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 01:58

This is a excellent hand to post, with a good amount of discussion. My take (without seeing being influenced by what partner actually has) is to treat 3 as a standard pre-empt not an intervening bid. Opposite a standard pre-empt I would be playing partner for about 8 HCPs so would wish to be in game. I would bid 3NT if East had opened 3 and the suit is good for three tricks even when West overcalls 3. (I might think otherwise if I had a suit without the three honor cards, plus the ten.)

So I think you should bid 3NT here. That's my take.
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#14 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 04:27

View Postthe hog, on 2023-March-25, 01:50, said:

DavidKok, what is partner supposed to bid. As you said you are not happy, suggest an acceptable alternative to pass?
I was plannig to bid 4, weaker/more unilateral than 3. I thought there is a reasonable chance that we're making game even if partner has a 12-14 balanced, something like Axx, Axx, AQxx, xxxx.
I've tried to come up with a few more example hands, but on second thoughts most 12-14 hands won't make game (unless partner has the ace of clubs, which is unlikely on the auction). I'm not so sure anymore that I like bidding. Although of course there is a reasonable chance partner doesn't have a balanced minimum, but we'll likely survive in that case either way.
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#15 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 05:22

View PostDavidKok, on 2023-March-25, 04:27, said:

I was plannig to bid 4, weaker/more unilateral than 3. I thought there is a reasonable chance that we're making game even if partner has a 12-14 balanced, something like Axx, Axx, AQxx, xxxx.
I've tried to come up with a few more example hands, but on second thoughts most 12-14 hands won't make game (unless partner has the ace of clubs, which is unlikely on the auction). I'm not so sure anymore that I like bidding. Although of course there is a reasonable chance partner doesn't have a balanced minimum, but we'll likely survive in that case either way.


4 will cost you. The most you can make is 2, they can make 2, 3-2 hits the par of 100 for 3x-1 NV (which they'd have to be given the really bad overcall).

3 might make for them if you get a different auction where the big hand gets persuaded to lead a spade.


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#16 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 05:33

Yes, I'm well aware 4 will give me a terrible score on this hand (having seen the South hand in the first post). I think the bid has got things going for it, though. There are hands where we make when partner wouldn't even keep the auction live. And if partner does bid something, are we really settling for less than 4 with that hand? If partner doubles, do we bid 3 (can be a 4-card suit with a 0-count?)? If partner bids 3NT, do we pass?

But, as I said above, it's probably too aggressive on reflection. So pass, and maybe someone will tell me what to bid if partner doubles or bids 3 (or 3NT).

I still dislike 3NT by South. I don't see how North can have the stoppers and filling to make that a good contract.
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#17 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 06:13

View PostCyberyeti, on 2023-March-25, 05:22, said:

The most you can make is 2

Not true.


As you can see by pressing the 'GiB' button, 4 is only down 1, on a club lead.

Edit: Corrected the auction.
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#18 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 08:15

View Postnullve, on 2023-March-25, 06:13, said:

Not true.


As you can see by pressing the 'GiB' button, 4 is only down 1, on a club lead.


This is true if you read everything correctly, and if you're going to do things like run the 9 to the J which is not clearly right (you'll love it losing to a stiff Q and getting a heart switch for example).
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#19 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 09:40

It is not poor judgement imo to try to find game on this hand. How would be bidding have gone without the 3 pre-empt? With either partner or the opps. holding different cards then 4 makes. I would guess, just off the top of my head, that East holding AQ10 over North is somewhere in the region of 5-10% only.

Yes, the 3 pre-empt on the actual hand does matter, but not everyone is bidding this way. The bidding on the actual hand could have gone 1 - (Pass) - 1 - (2) - 2NT/3 (pick your poison, I prefer 2NT) - (pass) - and what does North say now? 3 only? Never!

He has three extra than his 1 bid signifies, and normally a 2NT rebid from partner would be forcing to game. I expect most expert partnerships would be in either 4X-1 or 4-1. And even expert partnerships sometimes go down in contracts, or so my granny says :) (God rest her soul)
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#20 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2023-March-25, 10:46

View PostLBengtsson, on 2023-March-25, 09:40, said:

It is not poor judgement imo to try to find game on this hand. How would be bidding have gone without the 3 pre-empt? With either partner or the opps. holding different cards then 4 makes. I would guess, just off the top of my head, that East holding AQ10 over North is somewhere in the region of 5-10% only.

Yes, the 3 pre-empt on the actual hand does matter, but not everyone is bidding this way. The bidding on the actual hand could have gone 1 - (Pass) - 1 - (2) - 2NT/3 (pick your poison, I prefer 2NT) - (pass) - and what does North say now? 3 only? Never!

He has three extra than his 1 bid signifies, and normally a 2NT rebid from partner would be forcing to game. I expect most expert partnerships would be in either 4X-1 or 4-1. And even expert partnerships sometimes go down in contracts, or so my granny says :) (God rest her soul)


we would start

1-P-1-2
x(exactly 4 clubs, not necessarily extras)-P-2-

now not clear what happens
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