[pescetom]

MP

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Many if not most around here would not have opened the North hand, I did even playing 2/1 and was sorely disappointed by 3NT.
Should it make all the tricks and should that be 83% at national level nonetheless?

[sfi]

pescetom, on 2024-January-02, 15:30, said:

[...] should that be 83% at national level nonetheless?

Yes, I would expect a very good score for +720. The slam isn't that easy to bid, particularly at matchpoints where South will often succumb to the temptation to bid 3NT at some point along the way. And yes, I would have opened North as well.

As for other points on the hand, I'm not sure I can answer them in polite company.

[mikeh]

3N looks timid to me. I’d expect a lot of experts would bid a natural 4N. If any reader thinks that 4N is keycard, ask two questions:

1. How do I bid a strong notrump type hand, with too much for 3N and not enough to force to slam, with no good fit for opener?

2. If I want to keycard, why don’t I first set trump, via 3H?

As for 720..I’d expect at least 83%.

If north opens (I wouldn’t…imo it’s clearly an opener if one of my suits was spades, is borderline with hearts, but anti-percentage with the minors….but I’m relatively conservative), I think clubs gets lost forever. And clubs is the only good slam.

13 tricks are impossible without a major defensive error.


Edit:

Opening very light is not a get out of jail free card. Had south bid 4N, I think it very difficult for north to bid 5C since he might feel that he was (a) losing the board running from notrump at mps and (b) overbidding

Imagine north passes. East opens 2H and south bids 2N

Playing system on, north bids 3S, showing the minors. South can now bid 4C, especially since he has a flaw in spades opposite a minor two suiter, and 6C is reached very easily

Personally, I play a non-standard treatment over 2N, but we’d reach 6C via a different route.

Further edit

I’d not double as south. I have little desire to play in a 4-4 spade fit on the auction. I have two stoppers In hearts, and RHO is unlikely to have two side entries, which he needs in order to drive out my stoppers and get in to run his suit. Meanwhile, the chances of a bad spade break have increased on the auction.

[Cyberyeti]

Not sure we get there:

1♦-(2♥)-X-(P)
2N (going to show this as bad with clubs)-(P)-3N/4N-(P)

does N have another go ?

[mw64ahw]

Playing an unbalanced ♦: 1♦-(2♥)-X-(P)-3♣ will show 10 cards in the minors for me
Even playing a more standard approach I think I would bid 3♣ and rebid ♣ if responder doesn't move directly to 3NT

[Cyberyeti]

mw64ahw, on 2024-January-02, 16:52, said:

Playing an unbalanced ♦: 1♦-(2♥)-X-(P)-3♣ will show 10 cards in the minors for me
Even playing a more standard approach I think I would bid 3♣ and rebid ♣ if responder doesn't move directly to 3NT

What do you do with a 1354 11 count without a stop ?

[mw64ahw]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-January-03, 03:50, said:

What do you do with a 1354 11 count without a stop ?

I have to bid 2NT to show the ♠ shortage and this shape. Responder can bid 3♣ with 33 in the minors since my shape can be x3(54) or Pass/Raise with a stopper of their own. I may end up playing in a Moysian if 1444 or can correct to 3NT with extras

[pescetom]

sfi, on 2024-January-02, 16:11, said:

Yes, I would expect a very good score for +720. The slam isn't that easy to bid, particularly at matchpoints where South will often succumb to the temptation to bid 3NT at some point along the way.

Only 7 out of 111 were in a slam so yes, clearly not easy to bid, particularly if East is allowed to open with a preempt.
65 were in 3NT (or perhaps higher) of which 22 scored 720.

sfi, on 2024-January-02, 16:11, said:

And yes, I would have opened North as well.

As for other points on the hand, I'm not sure I can answer them in polite company.

East-West are beginners and I actually thought East did well to show his hand in tempo, following the Stop procedure too. I'm not keen on 2♥, but it's what he would have picked up in that club.

South is a decent player (we finished second) but too fond of 3NT for my tastes. Of course I'm not realistic enough for her tastes either.

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2024-January-02, 16:34, said:

3N looks timid to me. I’d expect a lot of experts would bid a natural 4N. If any reader thinks that 4N is keycard, ask two questions:

1. How do I bid a strong notrump type hand, with too much for 3N and not enough to force to slam, with no good fit for opener?

2. If I want to keycard, why don’t I first set trump, via 3H?

My comment at the table was indeed "I can understand NT, but why not 4NT?". But this partner has an old meta-rule of 4N being keycard after interference and is unwilling to change.

I'm happy with the natural NT response, but surely there is some logic in double all the same? I see your argument about spades, but South has four decent clubs and 17 HCP too.

mikeh, on 2024-January-02, 16:34, said:

Opening very light is not a get out of jail free card. Had south bid 4N, I think it very difficult for north to bid 5C since he might feel that he was (a) losing the board running from notrump at mps and (b) overbidding

Doesn't 5C say "I don't see 6N, but I have 5 clubs (and 5+ diamonds) if you want to play a minor slam rather than 5N?".
That's how I would take it and I would be happy if North did that.

mikeh, on 2024-January-02, 16:34, said:

Imagine north passes. East opens 2H and south bids 2N

Playing system on, north bids 3S, showing the minors. South can now bid 4C, especially since he has a flaw in spades opposite a minor two suiter, and 6C is reached very easily

Agreed.

Around here it is equally likely that East opens 2D Multi: South has an awkward hand for the defence we play because 2NT would promise a spades stop, but Double shows 12+ HCP and 4 hearts if minimum and would manage to get the clubs into play.

mikeh, on 2024-January-02, 16:34, said:

13 tricks are impossible without a major defensive error.

Happened at about one table in three at national level, so major yes but not serious... not easy for our beginner in East to figure out why he should discard from ♠KQ in NT or ♥KT8 (seeing J in dummy and knowing A in hand) rather than from ♦T93.