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Anybody's guess

#1 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 13:13

You liked your hand until partner opened a gambling 3N, at least AKQxxxx in a minor and no side aces or kings, pass to you:



Suggestions ?
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#2 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 13:31

We've got 10 tricks on top, and if we can establish one of our long major suits that's a possible source of additional tricks. The issue is entries - we likely only have 2 entries to the hand, possibly 3, which might not be enough to establish either major if it breaks poorly. This honestly feels like a 4-or-7 deal, although it is also possible we have exactly 11 or 12 tricks.

I'll commit us to game for sure - 3NT isn't making on a lead of the other minor (which shouldn't be that hard to find - there's a good chance the lead is the ace of a minor, revealing our hand), and stopping in 4m is against the odds. I'd like to bid 4, artificial game force asking partner for shortness, but we don't know which minor partner has got. I think we might have trouble on the next few rounds when starting with that bid. On the other hand, if we're blasting to game or slam anyway, there's little downside to asking along the way.

If partner has heart shortness - the worst holding for us - we are in a 4-or-7 deal. If the spade finesse is on, or partner has a singleton and the hearts split 3-3 (and they don't lead a spade through our holding), we can set up the heart suit and cash 5 hearts, 7 cards in partner's minor and the ace of spades. But once we ask we have passed 4m, plus we won't even know whether partner has a void or a singleton. If partner does show at least two hearts we are reasonably safe for 6, and might try for 7. But if we're going for 7 (or 6) if partner has heart shortness, and are safe for 6 if partner does not, why are we asking?

After all the rambling, I think I'll just bid 6, pass or correct. The chances at making 7 are significant but not terrific (we might have a trump loser, or a bad break in a major suit, or lack of communication), and there is a slight upside of not giving away a potential spade lead if partner corrects to 6. Not to mention we have a club loser in 6. Perhaps 5 should be 'pass or correct to 6', paradox style. But for me it's undefined, and I won't risk it.

Edit: I just realised that 4NT - bid your minor - might be good, letting us choose between 5 and 6, unfortunately wrong-siding the contract in the process.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 13:54

The problem with your approach is that if partner has 7 diamonds and 3 clubs, you don't have a trump so they take the first 3 tricks playing in diamonds.

Nothing's perfect here, not sure there is a right answer.
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#4 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 14:15

I would bid 4NT as DavidKok says.
Partner has denied K so we are not going far unless he has the right clubs.
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#5 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 14:19

View PostCyberyeti, on 2022-September-22, 13:54, said:

The problem with your approach is that if partner has 7 diamonds and 3 clubs, you don't have a trump so they take the first 3 tricks playing in diamonds.

Nothing's perfect here, not sure there is a right answer.
You are always left guessing, one of the first things I said is that I'm not willing to gamble that exactly 4m is the limit. So I'll just accept my losses in this scenario.
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#6 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 14:28

I'm going with 4NT too. I don't really see the point about wrong-siding; if partner's suit is clubs, I'm delighted regardless of who is dummy, and if partner's suit is diamonds, we're probably in trouble on a club lead regardless of who is dummy (and 6 pass or correct isn't right-siding).

With a greater than 50% chance of partner's suit being diamonds, the 6 level seems too much.
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#7 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 14:36

If we become declarer we are protected against a spade lead, which might be a crucial entry for establishing the hearts.
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#8 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 14:55

Ah, right, I see. But that *might* be crucial, *if* they find a spade lead against 6 over a more likely diamond, vs almost always being too high in the > 50% chance of a diamond contract. [And you still have a backup of an immediate spade finesse.] So too risky for me.
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#9 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 15:00

4H
1. 4c POC might be right, but hand is just too good to bypass game possibility.
2. If 4H X (penalty) follow up with 4S and HOPE p does not have void x in the majors and goes back to 5h (I hope they would bid their minor rather than go back to 5h)
3. PASS means you have not spent enough time at the gaming tables in LAS VEGAS.
4. 4S (intending to run to 5H if X) is the right kind of idea but takes on a lot of extra risk when 4h is the place to be.
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#10 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 15:33

IMPs or MPs?

There are plenty of red flags and staying low might work well at pairs.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 15:56

View PostTramticket, on 2022-September-22, 15:33, said:

IMPs or MPs?

There are plenty of red flags and staying low might work well at pairs.


Was dealt in practice, so no particular form of scoring but I tend to think teams.
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#12 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 16:02

My first thought was to bid 4, intending to bid 4 over 4, 5 over 4, 5(p/c) over 4N (now I know only 2 clubs cash), and pass over 5m.
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#13 User is offline   michel444 

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Posted 2022-September-22, 23:36

very nice hand
as it almost never happend to me I guess I will bid 4 p/C
if partner have 7 and 4 even 4 can fail
if he have 7 Club he may do an over trick
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#14 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 02:20

Luck will play a part here. It is over 4 times more chance partner has 7-3-2-1 or 7-3-3-0 shape than 7-2-2-2 and while the 3-card suit in 7-3-2-1/7-3-3-0 could be the other minor, you could be missing a 9-card major fit. (I hope my partner would not open a Gambling 3NT with a hand that also has a 4/ side suit. However...

While there are clever bids here, I think the sensible bid is just to look for the 5m contract with 4NT. Yes, partner could have three losing , but if he has three losing what game will make with the hands on best defense? Already we know our hand are distributional, and it is likely that the opps. hands are also.

Yes, there may chances of slam where the minor suit can be run, or where a major suit can be established, but we need other things to go right. And yes, where the best contract is "Anybody's Guess".
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#15 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 03:01

If partner shows clubs over 4NT I plan to raise to 6.
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#16 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 03:15

Partner's hand is in fact either J10x, void, AKQxxxx, Jxx or the same with the majors reversed, if you pick a major, you won't be doubled, but if you pick the wrong one you won't make. 5 loses the first 3 tricks and as it happens a trump.
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#17 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 05:18

Is this hand a case for inverting the major suit responses to 4 ? and what would be the cost ?

So 3N-4-4 shows a stiff/void spade and you would pass and play 4, 3N-4-4 would show a stiff/void heart and you pass and play 4

Also does everybody play 4N as "bid your minor" rather than 5 as p/c, 4N as "I have 4 tricks, bid 6 with an 8th one" was what I was taught
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#18 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 05:31

View PostCyberyeti, on 2022-September-23, 03:15, said:

Partner's hand is in fact either J10x, void, AKQxxxx, Jxx or the same with the majors reversed, if you pick a major, you won't be doubled, but if you pick the wrong one you won't make. 5 loses the first 3 tricks and as it happens a trump.


That is weird, Cyberyeti. I was going to put in my comment above (but did not) that whilst partner should not have 4/ with the minor suit, even having three cards to the honor jack in either major might disqualify this hand from opening with a gambling 3NT, especially with 7330 shape where you have an automatic ruffing value if you should end in a 4M contract.

I guess you can sometimes pre-empt partner - as opposed the opps. - and make life difficult for him. This hand illustrates this, if you have not got any mechanism to end in 4M when partner has the hand as shown. I think that a 4 contract will be found by an established partnership if partner opens 1 as opposed to 3NT here. Interesting what bidding reaches it though?
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#19 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 05:46

View PostLBengtsson, on 2022-September-23, 05:31, said:

That is weird, Cyberyeti. I was going to put in my comment above (but did not) that whilst partner should not have 4/ with the minor suit, even having three cards to the honor jack in either major might disqualify this hand from opening with a gambling 3NT, especially with 7330 shape where you have an automatic ruffing value if you should end in a 4M contract.

I guess you can sometimes pre-empt partner - as opposed the opps. - and make life difficult for him. This hand illustrates this, if you have not got any mechanism to end in 4M when partner has the hand as shown. I think that a 4 contract will be found by an established partnership if partner opens 1 as opposed to 3NT here. Interesting what bidding reaches it though?


We have history with this, The same hand without the 10 turned up years ago, most of the field didn't open 3N, partner had a flat hand with 3 AKs, we bid 3N-7N most of the field couldn't find the 7th card for the 13th trick and played 6. This basically won us a trophy as it was against the pair that finished second (the +1130 on the other board of the set didn't hurt either)
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#20 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2022-September-23, 08:38

View PostCyberyeti, on 2022-September-23, 05:18, said:

Also does everybody play 4N as "bid your minor" rather than 5 as p/c, 4N as "I have 4 tricks, bid 6 with an 8th one" was what I was taught

I was taught 4NT as NF "show 8 or a side Q", but we simplified it to "bid your minor" to reduce memory load for such an infrequent convention.
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