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Pick Your Contract

#1 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2022-August-06, 15:36

AKQ832
T743
A3
2

opposite

J4
KQ95
Q
AK9753

North opens 1S and East weak jumps 3D ... a simple question: Which contract would you like to be in? At imps, and mp, is it different? Does strength of field matter?

Thanks,

eagles
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#2 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2022-August-06, 22:39

View Posteagles123, on 2022-August-06, 15:36, said:

Which contract would you like to be in?


Good hand to post. Two other questions: how to bid and play "what contract"?

There is 20-25% chance that West has AJ(x)(x)(x) and you could make the wrong play with the West holding doubleton AJ, so just on odds alone I would like to be in 6 as a contract at both MPs and IMPs. However...

...that 3 pre-empt say to me that breaks will be more chance to be bad, so 6 looks a better contract and safer to play.

The chance of East having a stiff (not including the A) and getting a ruff is just over 11%. The chances of the 6 contract succeeding are similar to being in 6 contract: the suit still needs to come in with the loss of one trick only.

I do not think it is easy to bid slam here***: aggressive bidders will be in it, and lesser players (thinking of 'the field') will probably not. My honest opinion: if slam is there to bid and made, and we can get there, at any score, you should be there, so if we are in 6 or 6 and it goes down then we are unlucky.

***seeing both hands makes it easier to bid: bidding slam without seeing partner's hand is guess imo. You either chicken in 5/ after RKCB or bid one more and hope for the best.
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#3 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2022-August-07, 06:19

I think I would like to be in 4. The pre-empt has made 4-1 breaks more likely and with that, the chance that East can engineer a ruff in the major we don't play in. If I play in spades, I expect a heart lead to the ace, heart ruff. If I play in hearts, I expect a spade lead, West gets in with the heart ace followed by a spade ruff. 4 looks more robust against 4-1 or 5-0 trump breaks than 4. I would say this at MPs or IMPs.
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#4 User is offline   Douglas43 

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Posted 2022-August-08, 06:58

I'd probably be in 4. 1 -(3)-Double-(pass)-3-pass 4
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#5 User is offline   dsLawsd 

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Posted 2022-August-08, 13:57

It depends on the state of our game. Also the opponent. Generally I like 4 at matchpoints. I would guess we would end at 5 at Imps unless we were behind. That elusive heart J isn't it?
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#6 User is offline   johnrmoore 

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Posted 2022-August-08, 18:33

6Spades My only awareness of IMPs is stretch for game. Not a problem here. I have entries and clubs could be 3-3 with a fortced heart entry. no field difference. go for slam.
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#7 User is offline   johnrmoore 

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Posted 2022-August-08, 18:33

6Spades My only awareness of IMPs is stretch for game. Not a problem here. I have entries and clubs could be 3-3 with a fortced heart entry. no field difference. go for slam.
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#8 User is offline   smerriman 

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Posted 2022-August-08, 18:56

I'm with AL78. If the diamonds are 3-7, the chance of picking up the heart suit for 3 tricks is a tick under 50%, and that's not considering ruffs. Maybe clubs 3-3 gives us a tiny extra chance, but looking at the two hands, I'm happy with 4.

Though of course, that's only looking at the two hands. Actually bidding it out without knowing each other's hand could easily go either way.
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#9 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2022-August-09, 00:34

View Postsmerriman, on 2022-August-08, 18:56, said:

I'm with AL78. If the diamonds are 3-7, the chance of picking up the heart suit for 3 tricks is a tick under 50%, and that's not considering ruffs. Maybe clubs 3-3 gives us a tiny extra chance, but looking at the two hands, I'm happy with 4.

Though of course, that's only looking at the two hands. Actually bidding it out without knowing each other's hand could easily go either way.


Before I decide how the diamonds break, I want to know how many the partner of the preemptor does or doesn't bid, they could easily be 6-4 or 8-2
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#10 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2022-August-09, 11:22

Hi

I saw the auction on BridgeWinners.

You have a 4-4 fit in hearts, and a 6-2 fit in spades.
The spade fit is better / more robust due to the fact, that South has Jx in Spades.
As far as North knows, his partner may have a Spade Single.
For that matter North never showed a solid 6 card spade suit, why should South ever
believe, Spades to be the better trump suit.

Settling for the heart fit is normal.

The question is, should you end up in 6H.
A side question to answer: Was the neg. X already Game Forcing? Some play it that way,
which gives you more room. But sometimes you will end up to high.

In the end both players stretched to find their bids, the game bid, the Key Card Ask.
An alternative to the Key Card Ask is a Quantitative Slam Invite via 5H, if you have this
av., some play this in the given Seq. as an Control Ask for Diamonds, I find the quantitative
invite more useful.
North will decline the invite.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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