[sceptic]

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     -     Pass  1♥
 Pass  1NT   Pass  3NT
 Pass  Pass  Pass  

Spade lead can you make +3 ?

[the hog]

Can't you make 1D, 2S, 3H and 6C for 12 tricks?
Win S, D to K, C to A, H finesse etc. I'm not saying you should play this way, but that certainly gives you 12 tricks.

[luke warm]

double dummy, yeah 12 is there

[PMetsch]

I would play a ♥ to the ten at trick 2, protecting the ♦K if the finesse is wrong. Now ♥K shows the bad break. From here it is a bit utomatic, cash ♣ and a ♠ to the hand, leaving:

---

At this point I have to guess, cashing ♥A or play a diamond.

[Free]

in any form of scoring, it's safe to play low ♥ to the T, and this line always gives you 12 tricks... So wtp?

[inquiry]

PMetsch, on Jun 22 2005, 04:19 AM, said:

At this point I have to guess, cashing ♥A or play a diamond.

East showed out on the second heart, so you have WEST counted out. IF he stiff the heart play the ACE. If he keeps two hearts, play the diamond (if you are going for 12 tricks)... as if EAST has diamond ACE, you can't win 12.

[SoTired]

you have a full count. if you lead a diam and LHO has the ace, you make 12 tricks on the end-play. If RHO has the ace you make 10 tricks. If you cash the AH you make 11 tricks. This is IMPS, you have made your contract already. I'd go for the end-play because it is cooler.

At MP, the decision is easier. Most would lead a diam, setting up the King and you have 11 tricks off the top. Some will make 12 on defensive errors. A few might get to 6C, which makes on the singleton heart lead or AD onside. So playing for 12 tricks is more obvious. You are risking getting a zero instead of a below-average board for a chance for a near top.

BTW, did you know that when they compared actual hand results to double-dummy results, dummy double contracts averaged less tricks than the same contracts did live? This is because defensive errors cost more tricks than offensive ones.

[the hog]

You have specified Imps Wayne, so the answer is clearly "No". At MP in a good field the answer would clearly be "Yes".

[luke warm]

no, at the table i'd take the ♠ lead and finesse the ♥10... if it loses, my ♦K is safe... if it wins, i'd take the ♥K and come to hand with a club, play my major winners and run the clubs

i wouln't play to the ♦K because it's imps and i don't have to

[inquiry]

The_Hog, on Jun 22 2005, 09:40 AM, said:

You have specified Imps Wayne, so the answer is clearly "No". At MP in a good field the answer would clearly be "Yes".

PMetsch got it right. Everyone should make 12 tricks here, it is a no-brainer of sorts.

1) win king spades (forced)
2) heart to ten wins (small victory dance)
3) Cash heart king (13 tricks if H 3-3), find 5-1 split
4) cash six clubs, keep Diamond T and AJ hearts and A spade.
5) Come to hand with spade ACE,

---

You have found WEST to have 4♠, 5♥, 1♣, thus 3♦. You have already won 10 tricks, so contract at no risk. Could WEST have fifth spade? No with QJ98x he would have started the Queen. WEST diamond discards have been ♦9 and ♦J (he could not afford another ♥ discard or we drop the queen).

So how are the missing diamonds split? If West has ACE, low diamond makes 12 tricks. If west has Queen, low diamond and duck in dummy makes same 11 as if you cash heart ace now --- Since East has to voertake queen with ace to cash this spade, but then he gives up diamond to king. Only if EAST has both AQ of diamonds does cash heart here become "required". But West lead spade from a horrible holding. With QJ9 of diamonds, you assume he would start that suit.

The odds clearly favor the hand with five diamonds having the ace, the odds of EAST having both the AQ are only silightly higher (57%) than West having a second diamond honor (ACE or QUEEN). Add that that, too few players are good enough to falsecard J9 from J95 suggest a diamond here is the "winning" play. Besides, isn't it more fun to play a diamond and endplay west? Or better yet, have WEST play diamond queen and EAST not be up to overtaking with the Diamond ACE when you duck in dummy? I thnk many people will choose this line.

As a footnote, the defense gets a gold star for EAST not playing the spade queen to trick one when you ducked the small spade lead or covered the nine of spades lead, else, you are really in good position here with assured 11 tricks, and likley 12.

[PMetsch]

inquiry, on Jun 22 2005, 09:28 AM, said:

... too few players are good enough to falsecard J9 from J95 suggest a diamond here is the "winning" play ...

If west has ♦J9x, then he can know, from the way the hand is played, that his partner has both ♦A and ♦Q. If declarer has ♦A there are 13 tricks and if he has ♦Q he would play ♦ early to set up a trick. Besides declarer has "too many HCP" with these cards. So "falsecarding" ♦ does not give away a trick.

I think you cannot be absolutely sure, that west has ♦A, but the endplay is so nice that you must play a ♦.