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Swing and a Miss Who threw the curveball here?

#1 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-November-22, 23:12

This came up tonight. Bad luck or poor judgement? Matchpoints.


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#2 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2021-November-22, 23:31

Notrump range?

Actually, is this slam even over 50%? Even if it is a bit over 50%, I don't think I want to be in it against a usual club field.
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#3 User is online   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 00:58

As South you're strong enough to start cue-bidding, so 3 for me. The simple test with South having a modified looking trick count of 5.5 is 19-7.5-5.5=6 level
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#4 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 02:37

My reaction would be: Next board.

It is hard to come up, with a reasonable auction seeing both hands,
South may start with a game try 2NT bid, ..., North may be able to
show max. with clubs, but is South really going beyond 4H with this
add. info?

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#5 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 04:05

I generated 64 random hands with the NS holding you describe.
Double-dummy, 3 made 5H. For the other 61, it was ~50% 6H and 50% 7H.

What is it about the South hand that should make me want to investigate slam?
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#6 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 04:40

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-November-23, 04:05, said:

I generated 64 random hands with the NS holding you describe.
Double-dummy, 3 made 5H. For the other 61, it was ~50% 6H and 50% 7H.

What is it about the South hand that should make me want to investigate slam?

The South hand is control rich, it has 8 controls, a strong NT has usually 5-6 controls,
if I remember right.
And it fits well with partners 5422 shape.

If you play weak NT, making a move is possible, opener is unbal. or has a min strong NT
hand, even 5422 hands ill quite often open the weak NT,
in a strong NT context opener could be 4333.

The only wastage is the jack of diamonds.

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Marlowe
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#7 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 04:43

4 by south is a Unimaginative bid holding 4 aces. Having set the trump suit with 2 I would bid something else. Obviously it will depend on agreements with partner. Every bid 2NT, 3, 3, 3 would have been forcing. Jumping to 4 says: that is it partner!

I am not saying it is easy to arrive in 6 or whether 6 will make, but just going to game with South hand is just easy way out.
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#8 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 05:57

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-November-22, 23:12, said:

Bad luck or poor judgement?

Luck and poor judgement, maybe? :)

(Unless 2 promised 4c support.)
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#9 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 08:12

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2021-November-23, 02:37, said:


It is hard to come up, with a reasonable auction seeing both hands


1♧ 1♡
2♡ 3♤
4♧ 4◇
4♡ 4N
5♤ 6♡
P

looks reasonable to me. North's 4♡ is discouraging, but he has to have opened on something and might still have ♤K without ◇K, so South will press on. If anything, it takes some faith for North to trust that partner really has even keycards here.
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#10 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 08:35

View Postakwoo, on 2021-November-22, 23:31, said:

Notrump range?

Actually, is this slam even over 50%? Even if it is a bit over 50%, I don't think I want to be in it against a usual club field.


It's not a great slam, but partner might have xx, KQJx, xx, KQJ9x where all you need is the trump split, the only unattractive feature is the size of the second heart in case partner has say Kxxxx(x)
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#11 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 09:40

View Postakwoo, on 2021-November-22, 23:31, said:

Notrump range?

Actually, is this slam even over 50%? Even if it is a bit over 50%, I don't think I want to be in it against a usual club field.

15-17
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#12 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 09:42

View Postpescetom, on 2021-November-23, 08:12, said:

1♧ 1♡
2♡ 3♤
4♧ 4◇
4♡ 4N
5♤ 6♡
P

looks reasonable to me. North's 4♡ is discouraging, but he has to have opened on something and might still have ♤K without ◇K, so South will press on. If anything, it takes some faith for North to trust that partner really has even keycards here.

Isn’t 3S splinter for you?
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#13 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 09:55

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-November-23, 04:05, said:

I generated 64 random hands with the NS holding you describe.
Double-dummy, 3 made 5H. For the other 61, it was ~50% 6H and 50% 7H.

What is it about the South hand that should make me want to investigate slam?

Did your random hands include 11 and 12 point opening hands? Even a better hand such as Qxx, KQJx, Qx, Kxxx would be a struggle to make 5 hearts
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#14 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 12:59

4H is a lazy bid.

KQxx trump and KQxxx in the opening suit + a side K or a singleton are possible hands for p.

Why not ask them. Of course when they turn up with their usual flat and quacky garbage they alone call an opening, they’ll reject and you can bid game with the feeling of having done the job.

Here they’ll be more excited and it depends on how you ask and how partner answers. Some good players I know have a slam investigator relay at 2NT, responder will say suitable hand with a decent suit, and then they will probably reach this borderline slam.
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#15 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 15:39

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-November-23, 09:55, said:

Did your random hands include 11 and 12 point opening hands? Even a better hand such as Qxx, KQJx, Qx, Kxxx would be a struggle to make 5 hearts


I specified exactly the hands provided and then asked the program (playbridge.com) to generate 64 hands.
When I save the .LIN file; it automatically opens in Bridgesolver, allowing me to step through the double-dummy solutions and count (using my fingers) the number of times it makes less than 6H.


No programming skill is needed.


The problem is presented with both hands showing and, as I said, "what is it about the South hand etc.".
Clearly, it is easy to imagine all kinds of hands North where slam is out of the question.


I agree that more simulation of North would be needed to work out the proportion of [fixed South - variable opening hand North combinations] leads to slam.
I don't have enough fingers for that.
Hence my question.


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#16 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 16:17

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-November-23, 09:42, said:

Isn’t 3S splinter for you?

No, it's an indifferentiated control bid, could be a void or singleton or A or K.
The advantage of showing first or second level control at the lowest level possible is presumed superior to any advantage of differentiating the type of control.
This is a good case in point, North with Kx can be fairly confident it shows an A.
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#17 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2021-November-23, 17:44

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-November-23, 04:05, said:

I generated 64 random hands with the NS holding you describe.
Double-dummy, 3 made 5H. For the other 61, it was ~50% 6H and 50% 7H.

What is it about the South hand that should make me want to investigate slam?

It's not about the South hand, or the North hand. It's about the fact your double dummy sim sees both the East and West hands, and therefore knows exactly how to play the club suit, making your numbers way higher than reality.
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#18 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-November-24, 03:08

View Postmw64ahw, on 2021-November-23, 00:58, said:

As South you're strong enough to start cue-bidding, so 3 for me. The simple test with South having a modified looking trick count of 5.5 is 19-7.5-5.5=6 level


View Postpescetom, on 2021-November-23, 16:17, said:

No, it's an indifferentiated control bid, could be a void or singleton or A or K.
The advantage of showing first or second level control at the lowest level possible is presumed superior to any advantage of differentiating the type of control.
This is a good case in point, North with Kx can be fairly confident it shows an A.
You can bid 3 slowly, by first making another bid between 2 and 3. I strongly prefer that the jump shows a clear direction and is tightly defined - in this case a splinter bid - and that the slower route is used on more generic hand types. Your treatment does not win any space (and in fact may well cost some), so I don't understand this 'lowest level possible'. What happened to 2-3? Aren't those lower? And how does North deduce that partner has the ace of spades, and not a splinter (opposite which Kx is horrible)? Your comment implies that partner would also bid 3 with a splinter hand.

Personally I play Spiral after this sequence, and would make use of it. But absent that agreement I would still start with 2 (advance cue or short suit trial) and then set up a game force on the next round.
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#19 User is online   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-November-24, 03:16

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-November-24, 03:08, said:

You can bid 3 slowly, by first making another bid between 2 and 3. I strongly prefer that the jump shows a clear direction and is tightly defined - in this case a splinter bid - and that the slower route is used on more generic hand types. Your treatment does not win any space (and in fact may well cost some), so I don't understand this 'lowest level possible'. What happened to 2-3? Aren't those lower? And how does North deduce that partner has the ace of spades, and not a splinter (opposite which Kx is horrible)? Your comment implies that partner would also bid 3 with a splinter hand.

Personally I play Spiral after this sequence, and would make use of it. But absent that agreement I would still start with 2 (advance cue or short suit trial) and then set up a game force on the next round.

Which Spiral are you talking about?
  • the one that asks if a 3/4 card support, or
  • the one that aims to tease out your honours


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#20 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-November-24, 03:19

The 3/4 card support version, which incidentally reveals partner's shape. The responding hand is perfect for that. With all aces we don't need controls, we need partner to have a source of tricks. If partner is unbalanced with 4 hearts and 5 clubs I am optimistic about slam, and I will learn about partner's shortness or if they are 2=4=2=5 (which is a warning sign). If partner has got a balanced minimum with 4-card support I am settling for game. I might even land in 3NT if partner has an unbalanced hand with 3-card support.

Edit: some brief Googling shows a thousand and one different versions of Spiral. But I think going into the detailed followups that I happen to play would be getting off topic. Even without this gadget the South hand should take the slower route.
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