Bridge Odds for Practical Players by Hugh Kelsey.
Very good book, quite clear. Some id pretty obvious, some less so. While Kelsey discusses how to calculate probabilities, he also shows how to use some quick and dirty estimates at the table to improve your chances 3%-15% here and there. Overall I'm not sure how much it will help your play, but its well written and interesting. Worth reading.
* Percentage Play - suit combinations
* Combining Changes - proper sequencing of suits. Ex. How do you play this?
6NT West leads the
♠J
Win the
♠Ace and run the
♦J, right? It wins when:
♦K is with East = 50% +
♦2-2, K with West, and Heart finesse wins = 10%
for a total of 60%!
Wrong!
Win the
♠A, finesse the
♥J. If it loses you have 2 entries to Dummy for
♦ finesses. If the
♥J wins, you can lead the
♦Q from hand. If the K doesnt appear, unblock
♣ and lead the
♦10. If West is void in
♦ use the A
♣ as an entry and pick up the entire
♦ suit
♥J loses but
♦ finesse right (50% x 50%) = 25% +
♥J wins and West doesnt have all 4
♦ with 4+
♣ (50% x 98%) = 49%
=74%
* Care of Options - playing in such a way that the opponents dont force you to make a decision before you have more data.
* Changing the odds - Length & Shortage
A K Q T x vs. x x
* Vacant Places - how to use this properly, pitfalls players fall into. Such as when a player is forced to make discards, counting them against the vacant spaces and thinking the other defender is now more likely to hold some missing Queen.
* Freedom of Choice (aka Restricted Choice or Bayes Theorem)