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Multiple decisions

#21 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-October-13, 13:20

View Postsmerriman, on 2021-October-13, 12:58, said:

Agreed; to alter P_Marlowe's conclusion, having shown serious slam interest the auction was the best it could possibly go, so 4S can't be a signoff; it's asking opener to continue with something and that something must be trumps.

mw64ahw also seems to have twice missed the fact opener has *denied* a strong hand.

Apparently so
I guess I'm struggling with the raise to 3 which may well go down if South has 6 total points.
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#22 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-October-13, 14:58

View Postmw64ahw, on 2021-October-13, 13:20, said:

Apparently so
I guess I'm struggling with the raise to 3 which may well go down if South has 6 total points.

Bridge is a game of probabilities. If responder has a weak hand, then even 2S may fail opposite a nice 15 count, but raising to 2S on 12-15, where the 12 could be a soft 4522 and the 15 a nice 4513/31 puts too much strain on the system. Now responder either invites and goes down opposite the bad hand or passes and misses a decent game opposite the stronger raise.

Heck, opening 1N on 15-17 sometimes leads to going down in 1N, and imagine what it does when one plays 10-12!

One cannot design a good method without building in the possibility of getting too high…learn to accept that or you’re not going to enjoy the game much, nor will you ever be a competent bidder
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#23 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-October-14, 01:09

View Postmikeh, on 2021-October-13, 14:58, said:

Bridge is a game of probabilities. If responder has a weak hand, then even 2S may fail opposite a nice 15 count, but raising to 2S on 12-15, where the 12 could be a soft 4522 and the 15 a nice 4513/31 puts too much strain on the system. Now responder either invites and goes down opposite the bad hand or passes and misses a decent game opposite the stronger raise.

Heck, opening 1N on 15-17 sometimes leads to going down in 1N, and imagine what it does when one plays 10-12!

One cannot design a good method without building in the possibility of getting too high…learn to accept that or you're not going to enjoy the game much, nor will you ever be a competent bidder

Thanks for clarifying - It sort of got stuck in my mind that North was a minimum opener when in fact they are in my terms 'distributionally strong'. I also play KI5 so 3 means something different to me.
I think my posts still stand although obviously not 18+hcp in the first one
A North hand such as below would cause me to bid 3. It has the has my required 5.5 MLT once revalued so probability wise it would fit.
KQxx
AJxxx
x
Axx
South still bids 3NT and North still bids 4NT, but the fact that Gazzilli is played doesn't factor for me until it comes to deciding on small versus grand slam.


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#24 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-October-14, 01:46

View Postmw64ahw, on 2021-October-14, 01:09, said:

A North hand such as below would cause me to bid 3. It has the has my required 5.5 MLT once revalued so probability wise it would fit.
KQxx
AJxxx
x
Axx
This hand would be a picture perfect 3 bid in my system, yes. And mikeh is right that we sometimes go down. Such is life.

At the table I bid 4NT, but I think this was a mistake (as others have already pointed out). The upside is that we know a lot more about partner's hand than partner knows about ours, so there is some value in retaining captaincy. However, we are simply too weak, and 4 is a better bid. Let's resume the auction with 4.
Partner decided to bid the slam with all those prime values despite missing the queen of trumps, reasoning that we should have compensating values elsewhere (maybe the queen of hearts). LHO leads the 4 of clubs, second or fourth best lead.
On the actual deal my decision to bid 4NT prompted a different development of the auction and a different lead, if people are more interested in how the deal went than how it should have gone I'm happy to give the inaccurate continuation instead. At any rate, plan the plan and/or criticise the rest of the auction.
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#25 User is offline   mw64ahw 

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Posted 2021-October-14, 03:07

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-October-14, 01:46, said:

This hand would be a picture perfect 3 bid in my system, yes. And mikeh is right that we sometimes go down. Such is life.

At the table I bid 4NT, but I think this was a mistake (as others have already pointed out). The upside is that we know a lot more about partner's hand than partner knows about ours, so there is some value in retaining captaincy. However, we are simply too weak, and 4 is a better bid. Let's resume the auction with 4.
Partner decided to bid the slam with all those prime values despite missing the queen of trumps, reasoning that we should have compensating values elsewhere (maybe the queen of hearts). LHO leads the 4 of clubs, second or fourth best lead.
On the actual deal my decision to bid 4NT prompted a different development of the auction and a different lead, if people are more interested in how the deal went than how it should have gone I'm happy to give the inaccurate continuation instead. At any rate, plan the plan and/or criticise the rest of the auction.

For me 3 is fractionally the wrong bid for North's hand.
If South has the strength to invite game then you are OK, but you may as well bid 2 and wait for the invite. This improves the probabilities in the long run.
However, having bid 3 and had the 3NT serious slam try shown I would end up in 6


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#26 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-October-14, 08:08

I agree that 3S is a stretch with that shape - but it worked so what do I know. Maybe partner never holds Qxxx, xx, KJxx, xxx 😊

Actually, it is ok. We either choose to underbid a tad or overbid a tad and live with our results. This is not about right and wrong but more optimist nature v pessimist nature.

Desire for gain and fear of loss - a conundrum as old as humankind.
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#27 User is offline   smerriman 

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Posted 2021-October-14, 13:36

View PostDavidKok, on 2021-October-14, 01:46, said:

Partner decided to bid the slam with all those prime values despite missing the queen of trumps, reasoning that we should have compensating values elsewhere (maybe the queen of hearts). LHO leads the 4 of clubs, second or fourth best lead.

4-1 trump breaks are too hard for me. I'll just win K, AK and hope the trumps break 3-2. Then we can just play AK hearts and pick up everything instantly except West having 5 or 6 hearts, in which case we can fall back to the diamond finesse and still make.

(K instead of A needed in case East ruffs the second heart).
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