[Winstonm]

I can think of no card stronger than the fourth x of support. Whereas AK543 opposite 876 offers zero percent chance for no losers, the addition of the 2 to make it 8762 increases the odds to roughly 40% chance of having no loser.

Are there other single card holdings that substantially increase chances, and if so how much does that card change the percentages?

[FrancesHinden]

Winstonm, on Nov 2 2007, 01:50 PM, said:

I can think of no card stronger than the fourth x of support. Whereas AK543 opposite 876 offers zero percent chance for no losers, the addition of the 2 to make it 8762 increases the odds to roughly 40% chance of having no loser.

Are there other single card holdings that substantially increase chances, and if so how much does that card change the percentages?

KQJ10987 opposite 32 = 0% chance of no loser
KQJ10987 opposite A2 = 100% chance of no loser

[han]

Agree, one can probably make an argument that the trump ace is the strongest card in the game.

[helene_t]

Probably, lol.

[kenberg]

It's true that aces tend to increase the number of winners in a suit, especially in the trump suit. We can try for other cards tho.

With a defensive holding of QJ tight you would prefer your partner hold 52 rather than 5 or 2 alone. No guarantees of course.

PS I did once hold the ace of trumps on lead against a grand. I cashed it before anyone could revoke. At the other table they had time problems and didn't play the hand. So the value of an ace is subject to the whims of fate.

[pclayton]

FrancesHinden, on Nov 2 2007, 06:03 AM, said:

Winstonm, on Nov 2 2007, 01:50 PM, said:

I can think of no card stronger than the fourth x of support.  Whereas AK543 opposite 876 offers zero percent chance for no losers, the addition of the 2 to make it 8762 increases the odds to roughly 40% chance of having no loser.

Are there other single card holdings that substantially increase chances, and if so how much does that card change the percentages?

KQJ10987 opposite 32 = 0% chance of no loser
KQJ10987 opposite A2 = 100% chance of no loser

On a similar note:

AKx opposite xxxxx = zero chance for 5 tricks
AKx opposite Qxxxx = 68% chance for 5 tricks

[Trumpace]

Hannie, on Nov 2 2007, 09:57 AM, said:

Agree, one can probably make an argument that the trump ace is the strongest card in the game.

Most definitely! lol

[cherdano]

I can beat that. A2 opposite QJT9876543 = 100% chance of no loser, 2 opposite QJT9876543 = 52% chance of one loser, 48% chance of 2 losers.

[awm]

How about this one (in notrump):

AKQJ opposite 876543

Four tricks (assuming not entries).

AKQ2 opposite 876543

Six tricks.

So a deuce was two tricks better than a jack?

[Winstonm]

What about a Jack? How about AK10xx opposite xxx verses AKJxxx opposite xxx?

[Tola18]

Winstonm, on Nov 2 2007, 07:02 PM, said:

What about a Jack?

In semisolid holdings, where there is one sure loser but hopefully not two, a jack, or sometimes even a 10 - has almost the same walue as an ace.

Thus, feks opposing partners opening sound weak 2, an J, even alone - is much worth, as we KNOW it makes the suit selfplaying - mostly one loser.

[Tola18]

I agree with the first post, 54 is often much stronger than 44 or 53. Especially with somewhat shaky hands without raw force. (Having raw force 44 or 53 is fine).
You MAY very well get down, but it will almost never by costly.



A wonderful thread!