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Guessing Game Who has What?

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-April-19, 04:25


IMPs. Strong event.

West leads the jack of clubs against your normal game and East wins with the ace and returns one, the seven which looks neutral. You win, draw trumps in two rounds, ruff a heart in dummy and ruff a club in hand and lead a diamond. West, the slug, inserts the eight. Over to you. West had the singleton trump, and you cannot really tell what the rounded suit distribution is.
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#2 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2021-April-19, 08:21

I would prefer ending up in dummy. Ruff a club then ruff a heart.
Then lead a diamond towards the J9.
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#3 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-April-19, 08:24

I play split honours. you can put off guess until next trick so duck :)

east might have made lead X of 3 holding A and AQ
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#4 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-April-19, 10:18

I think I would have given myself a slight extra chance. Win the club, heart Ace and King, draw one trump ending in hand, ruff the club, then draw trumps ending in hand and play the last heart, pitching a diamond. If RHO is forced to win, I'm home; if not, I'm not worse off.
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#5 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-April-21, 15:47

View Poststeve2005, on 2021-April-19, 08:21, said:

I would prefer ending up in dummy. Ruff a club then ruff a heart.
Then lead a diamond towards the J9.

As you are 100% if West does not have the 8 this cannot be right.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#6 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 02:43

View PostLBengtsson, on 2021-April-19, 08:24, said:

I play split honours. you can put off guess until next trick so duck :)

All you are doing by putting off the guess to the next trick is halving your chances of success. You should play the king on this trick. If it loses and a diamond comes back then you can have your guess.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#7 User is online   nullve 

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Posted 2021-April-27, 03:01

View Postlamford, on 2021-April-19, 04:25, said:

West had the singleton trump

Exactly which card did he discard on the second trump round?
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#8 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 08:21

View Postnullve, on 2021-April-27, 03:01, said:

Exactly which card did he discard on the second trump round?

The ten of clubs, the card he was known to hold.
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 08:28

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-April-19, 10:18, said:

I think I would have given myself a slight extra halved my chance(s). Win the club, heart Ace and King, draw one trump ending in hand, ruff the club, then draw trumps ending in hand and play the last heart, pitching a diamond. If RHO is forced to win has six hearts, QJT, QJT9, or QJT98, I'm home; if not, I'm not worse off, as I now have a 50-50 guess on the diamond return and am not gin when the 8 is on my left.

FYP
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#10 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 12:51

View Postlamford, on 2021-April-30, 08:28, said:

FYP

The OP stated that LHO played the 8, over to you - so I looked for another endplay with a loser on loser as it was known that low to the 7 would not work🥵 I don’t know why you say this is not an extra chance when you have the same guess when the king loses to the ace and a diamond comes back, plus, I always have the option of ruffing the third heart of it appears LHO will win that trick. Of course if I don’t know about the 8 it is a different story ☹️
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#11 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2021-May-03, 06:41

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-April-30, 12:51, said:

The OP stated that LHO played the 8, over to you - so I looked for another endplay with a loser on loser as it was known that low to the 7 would not work�� I don’t know why you say this is not an extra chance when you have the same guess when the king loses to the ace and a diamond comes back, plus, I always have the option of ruffing the third heart of it appears LHO will win that trick. Of course if I don’t know about the 8 it is a different story ☹️

You cannot use the fact that West DID have the eight of diamonds to go back in your Tardis to look for another line. When you play the third heart from hand, you will have no means of knowing whether East has to win this trick. It will be clear that LHO has to win the trick if his third heart is the queen, however.

I think it is right to ruff the third heart regardless, ruff the club, and then play a diamond. If West plays the eight, you play the king and if that loses to the ace you guess on the way back. You make the contract whenever the eight of diamonds is on your right, whenever the ace of diamonds is on your left and when you guess right. About 87.5% give or take. And I don't think you can do better.
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#12 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-May-03, 13:54

View Postlamford, on 2021-May-03, 06:41, said:

You cannot use the fact that West DID have the eight of diamonds to go back in your Tardis to look for another line. When you play the third heart from hand, you will have no means of knowing whether East has to win this trick. It will be clear that LHO has to win the trick if his third heart is the queen, however.

I think it is right to ruff the third heart regardless, ruff the club, and then play a diamond. If West plays the eight, you play the king and if that loses to the ace you guess on the way back. You make the contract whenever the eight of diamonds is on your right, whenever the ace of diamonds is on your left and when you guess right. About 87.5% give or take. And I don't think you can do better.

If LHO does not play the 8 there is no problem(or post). Once the K loses to the ace you have the same problem - which of 2 critical cards does opp hold. Plus, the loser on loser only applies if it appears to be best - the heart can be ruffed without losing your line of playing on diamonds. The third heart is an unlikely chance but is a genuine extra chance.

PS: I don't want to make this a tit-for-tat kind of thing so I'm done with this hand. Thanks for your replies.
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