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Double or not?

Poll: Do you double? (36 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you double?

  1. Of course I X, this is 2-3 down! (7 votes [19.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 19.44%

  2. Well yes I do. (9 votes [25.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 25.00%

  3. I am tempted, but I don't (14 votes [38.89%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.89%

  4. Are you crazy? Why give away trump trick? (6 votes [16.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.67%

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#21 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 13:32

Declarer could even be Garozzo, for all I care. He's going DOWN.

Experts deserve some credit for their bidding, but very often they bid games on a wing and a prayer. In this case the prayer failed to reach its destination and we should capitalize on that. They'll have a lot more respect for you if you double (even if it makes, which probably won't). Otherwise they'll keep jerking you off because they know you're too much of a wimp to double :P
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#22 User is offline   pmacfar 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 14:10

This reminds me of a hand I had in a casual team game a few years ago, holding AKQs and opponents bid 4. I doubled, figuring my partner for one trick in the side suites. LHO redoubled. Declarer made the contract, losing only the trump honors. Only difference in hand was my teammates failed to redouble.

S*** Happens!!!!!
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#23 User is offline   bearmum 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 17:49

cherdano, on Jun 9 2005, 01:34 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

1-1-1-P
2-P-4-AP

So with this 10 count, you watch your gold star opponents bid to 4 while your partner overcalled 1. Do you double? (As an aside, what do you lead?)

Arend

NO I don't double --- the opps have freely bid a game (so why give away the trump position ?)

and I lead my Partner's suit :rolleyes: namely 8
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#24 User is offline   JSilver 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 02:14

I agree with whereagles that you shouldn't allow strong opponents to intimidate you. Once in the first round of an NABC open pairs, my partner and I (flight C at the time) sat down against Meyers-Montin. On both deals, we collected 300 doubling part scores.

I'd double 4S. I expect 3 or 4 tricks from my hand and 1 or 2 from partner's, but then I'm a believer in sound overcalls. Call me an optimist. Yes, they freely bid game, but they didn't know they were running into a trump stack. Sure, once in a while, they'll make it, but I'd expect it to go down 2 often enough to make up for those times. I'd lead a top diamond, with the 8 as a second choice.
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#25 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 02:48

This makes me think about a hand I've seen somewhere:

Scoring: IMP


Bidding went:

1 - pass - 1 - pass
2NT - pass - 3* - pass
3 - pass - 4* - pass
4* - pass - 4 - pass
5* - pass - 6 - DBL
All pass

West lead J. It's obvious what he doubled with: KQT of s and probably K... So declarer takes A, cashes AK (discarding a ), ruffs a . Next is to the Ace, ruff , to the Q and ruff another . This is the holding:

Scoring: IMP


South plays 8, ruffed in dummy, ruffs the last , and plays his K. West only had his s left but could only make 1 trick with them...

Discussion afterwards:
North: wdp, lucky you got doubled, otherwise I don't see you play it that way
East: omg, why do you double? If you shut up we write +100
West: but East, I thought I had 2 tricks
East: you had 2 tricks, until you doubled
:P
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#26 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 09:20

I have mixed feelings about this. Justin's comment is certainly the conventional wisdom, but I think with more and more pairs pressing for tight games, that the well-timed double is the only counter. The IMP odds change considerably if -2 with the red card is a distinct possibility. Look at the hand records from the Women's USBF if you want some examples.

I played the Anaheim KO's a few months ago with a so-so team and made it to the finals of Bracket I. The team we played had roughly 30,000 MP's - national level, although not a top pro team. First board out of the box they bid a tight game that I knew was getting bad breaks, not only in my hand, but in my partners. She had to play it very carefully to hold it to -500. Our teammates rationally stayed in a part score, so we were +12 or 13. We won by about 20 I think.

And I probably don't double with the subject hand. I've learned not to take pard's overcalls too seriously. My guess is that a double turns -2 into -1. Give me QJTx and I crack it.
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#27 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 09:41


With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#28 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 10:11

I double, and lead the dA, maybe they make it but I'm honest and do what I know I would do at the table.
Without the s9 I think I would pass.
The legend of the black octogon.
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#29 User is offline   Double ! 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 10:49

Double ! in a heartbeat (actually, in tempo)

also lead diamond honor
I want to see dummy

absolutly agree that spade 9 is a very important card
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#30 User is offline   JSilver 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 12:30

Free, on Jun 15 2005, 08:48 AM, said:

This makes me think about a hand I've seen somewhere:

Scoring: IMP


Bidding went:

1 - pass - 1 - pass
2NT - pass - 3* - pass
3 - pass - 4* - pass
4* - pass - 4 - pass
5* - pass - 6 - DBL
All pass

West lead J. It's obvious what he doubled with: KQT of s and probably K... So declarer takes A, cashes AK (discarding a ), ruffs a . Next is to the Ace, ruff , to the Q and ruff another . This is the holding:

Scoring: IMP


South plays 8, ruffed in dummy, ruffs the last , and plays his K. West only had his s left but could only make 1 trick with them...

Discussion afterwards:
North: wdp, lucky you got doubled, otherwise I don't see you play it that way
East: omg, why do you double? If you shut up we write +100
West: but East, I thought I had 2 tricks
East: you had 2 tricks, until you doubled
:D

This hand is a far different matter. Your expectation is -1, so a X won't gain much, particularly if the slam isn't bid at the other table, which seems likely. And the loss from letting them make it by telling them where the trumps are is much greater. Also, I don't understand the auction, but it seems possible they could take it out to 6nt and make it.
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#31 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 14:55

I was kibitzing this hand, and I thought it was close. Of course it depends on your overcalling style; if it does promise some 8hcp, and if you would rather overcall 2 than 1 on KQJxx and almost nothing else (and so 1 promises some values outside of hearts), then I think there is a case for double, but I might still pass.

Btw, I don't think it is such a disaster if only one top diamond cashes. Once you can force declarer to ruff, your chance for 2 trump tricks despite the double increase dramatically.

Arend
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#32 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2005-June-15, 15:13

Quote

they know you're too much of a wimp to double


There is a big difference between them trying to push you around on partscores verrses freely bidding a game. In the first, they can easily be way out of line; in the latter, seldom.

The double with this kind of hand has little to gain and HUGE potential losses; if when they do go set, the doulbe allows them to escape for down 1 instead of 2 because it places the cards - a wash - down 2 undoubled, down 1 doubled. Sure, every once and a while you might catch a good player for down 2, but that's usually when you can tell that all the trumps and their sidesuits are lying poorly - here you don't have that - and the missing 10 of trumps is a huge card.

To my thinking, double is not well thought out and is nothing but an expression of bravado that can be very expensive indeed; for me courage is overcoming these
-790 impulses in order to do the right thing for the partnership. If they are going down 1, then a double vulnerable turns our +140 and +100 into +140 and +200. A difference of 2 IMPs. If my double let's them make, I've lost 650 or 12 IMPs. Risking 12 to gain 2 isn't real bright. Only if I were almost dead certain that I were beating it 1 with a reasonable chance for down 2 would I double.

That isn't getting pushed around - it's smart bridge.

WinstonM
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#33 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-June-16, 11:53

The opps bid freely to game based on their hands and pard's bid. Keep the nasty surprise for them, not your side. No double, big trouble for them. Opps are likely to have aces opposite stiffs and will try to get home on the cross-ruff, so a small trump lead (keeping your natural trump trick alive) seems to be indicated.
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#34 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2005-June-16, 11:58

Jlall, on Jun 9 2005, 02:16 PM, said:

I don't think +500 is sufficiently likely to warrant a X. If they had had an invitational auction I would though.

But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...

Arend
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#35 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-June-16, 12:03

Quote

I would have bid 1NT too, we could still have game.


after the 1S bid, I would expect to play 1NT or 2H doubled for minus 500 at least. The 1NT bid is usually an attempt to warn pard that you have their suits (you have no clubs) and that unless he has diamonds he should pass with only 5 hearts and hope. Change your diamonds to clubs and it gets a bit more reasonable with less chance of a double.
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#36 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-June-16, 13:09

cherdano, on Jun 16 2005, 12:58 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 9 2005, 02:16 PM, said:

I don't think +500 is sufficiently likely to warrant a X. If they had had an invitational auction I would though.

But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...

Arend

Somehow I still believe in partnership bidding so if I have too much to pass and not enough to bid game then I make a game try. Old fashioned I know.

Sure people overbid games, but just because they bid one doesn't mean they are overbidding. When they do overbid to games, they never have balanced hands. They will have distribution. If one of my diamonds doesn't cash, I don't see beating them 500 ever. I see them working out the spade position and making their contract because I Xed. The problem on this hand is simply weighing the likelihood that they make (especially when they make BECAUSE of the X) versus the likelihood that you will get 500 or more. I judge the former more likely.

Additionally, because I said that I would X had they had an invitational auction this does not mean I wait for invitational auctions to X them. That logic does not follow, I simply think that if they had had an invitational auction that tips the scales more towards 500 being more likely than them making.
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#37 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-June-16, 16:16

Ok Arend, ,so how many undertricks did tehy score? :-P
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#38 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2005-June-16, 16:33

Fluffy, on Jun 16 2005, 11:16 PM, said:

Ok Arend, ,so how many undertricks did tehy score? :-P

Two of them, but the tricky question is, of course, whether they would have scored 2 undertricks after a double as well -- see yourself:
Traveller
I think it's still down two.
(E.g. Heart to the Ace, Q to the King, spade to the J and A, club to the king, spade to the Queen, but now our hero can just play another low spade and either score his 9 or declarer doesn't get his heart ruff)

Arend
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