Experts deserve some credit for their bidding, but very often they bid games on a wing and a prayer. In this case the prayer failed to reach its destination and we should capitalize on that. They'll have a lot more respect for you if you double (even if it makes, which probably won't). Otherwise they'll keep jerking you off because they know you're too much of a wimp to double
Double or not?
#21
Posted 2005-June-09, 13:32
Experts deserve some credit for their bidding, but very often they bid games on a wing and a prayer. In this case the prayer failed to reach its destination and we should capitalize on that. They'll have a lot more respect for you if you double (even if it makes, which probably won't). Otherwise they'll keep jerking you off because they know you're too much of a wimp to double
#22
Posted 2005-June-09, 14:10
S*** Happens!!!!!
#23
Posted 2005-June-09, 17:49
cherdano, on Jun 9 2005, 01:34 PM, said:
So with this 10 count, you watch your gold star opponents bid to 4♠ while your partner overcalled 1♥. Do you double? (As an aside, what do you lead?)
Arend
NO I don't double --- the opps have freely bid a game (so why give away the trump position ?)
and I lead my Partner's suit
#24
Posted 2005-June-15, 02:14
I'd double 4S. I expect 3 or 4 tricks from my hand and 1 or 2 from partner's, but then I'm a believer in sound overcalls. Call me an optimist. Yes, they freely bid game, but they didn't know they were running into a trump stack. Sure, once in a while, they'll make it, but I'd expect it to go down 2 often enough to make up for those times. I'd lead a top diamond, with the ♥8 as a second choice.
#25
Posted 2005-June-15, 02:48
Bidding went:
1♣ - pass - 1♠ - pass
2NT - pass - 3♦* - pass
3♠ - pass - 4♣* - pass
4♦* - pass - 4♥ - pass
5♣* - pass - 6♠ - DBL
All pass
West lead ♣J. It's obvious what he doubled with: KQT of ♠s and probably ♦K... So declarer takes ♣A, cashes ♥AK (discarding a ♦), ruffs a ♥. Next is ♦ to the Ace, ruff ♦, ♣ to the Q and ruff another ♦. This is the holding:
South plays ♣8, ruffed in dummy, ruffs the last ♦, and plays his ♣K. West only had his ♠s left but could only make 1 trick with them...
Discussion afterwards:
North: wdp, lucky you got doubled, otherwise I don't see you play it that way
East: omg, why do you double? If you shut up we write +100
West: but East, I thought I had 2 tricks
East: you had 2 tricks, until you doubled
#26
Posted 2005-June-15, 09:20
I played the Anaheim KO's a few months ago with a so-so team and made it to the finals of Bracket I. The team we played had roughly 30,000 MP's - national level, although not a top pro team. First board out of the box they bid a tight game that I knew was getting bad breaks, not only in my hand, but in my partners. She had to play it very carefully to hold it to -500. Our teammates rationally stayed in a part score, so we were +12 or 13. We won by about 20 I think.
And I probably don't double with the subject hand. I've learned not to take pard's overcalls too seriously. My guess is that a double turns -2 into -1. Give me QJTx and I crack it.
#28
Posted 2005-June-15, 10:11
Without the s9 I think I would pass.
#29
Posted 2005-June-15, 10:49
also lead diamond honor
I want to see dummy
absolutly agree that spade 9 is a very important card
#30
Posted 2005-June-15, 12:30
Free, on Jun 15 2005, 08:48 AM, said:
Bidding went:
1♣ - pass - 1♠ - pass
2NT - pass - 3♦* - pass
3♠ - pass - 4♣* - pass
4♦* - pass - 4♥ - pass
5♣* - pass - 6♠ - DBL
All pass
West lead ♣J. It's obvious what he doubled with: KQT of ♠s and probably ♦K... So declarer takes ♣A, cashes ♥AK (discarding a ♦), ruffs a ♥. Next is ♦ to the Ace, ruff ♦, ♣ to the Q and ruff another ♦. This is the holding:
South plays ♣8, ruffed in dummy, ruffs the last ♦, and plays his ♣K. West only had his ♠s left but could only make 1 trick with them...
Discussion afterwards:
North: wdp, lucky you got doubled, otherwise I don't see you play it that way
East: omg, why do you double? If you shut up we write +100
West: but East, I thought I had 2 tricks
East: you had 2 tricks, until you doubled
This hand is a far different matter. Your expectation is -1, so a X won't gain much, particularly if the slam isn't bid at the other table, which seems likely. And the loss from letting them make it by telling them where the trumps are is much greater. Also, I don't understand the auction, but it seems possible they could take it out to 6nt and make it.
#31
Posted 2005-June-15, 14:55
Btw, I don't think it is such a disaster if only one top diamond cashes. Once you can force declarer to ruff, your chance for 2 trump tricks despite the double increase dramatically.
Arend
#32
Posted 2005-June-15, 15:13
Quote
There is a big difference between them trying to push you around on partscores verrses freely bidding a game. In the first, they can easily be way out of line; in the latter, seldom.
The double with this kind of hand has little to gain and HUGE potential losses; if when they do go set, the doulbe allows them to escape for down 1 instead of 2 because it places the cards - a wash - down 2 undoubled, down 1 doubled. Sure, every once and a while you might catch a good player for down 2, but that's usually when you can tell that all the trumps and their sidesuits are lying poorly - here you don't have that - and the missing 10 of trumps is a huge card.
To my thinking, double is not well thought out and is nothing but an expression of bravado that can be very expensive indeed; for me courage is overcoming these
-790 impulses in order to do the right thing for the partnership. If they are going down 1, then a double vulnerable turns our +140 and +100 into +140 and +200. A difference of 2 IMPs. If my double let's them make, I've lost 650 or 12 IMPs. Risking 12 to gain 2 isn't real bright. Only if I were almost dead certain that I were beating it 1 with a reasonable chance for down 2 would I double.
That isn't getting pushed around - it's smart bridge.
WinstonM
#33
Posted 2005-June-16, 11:53
#34
Posted 2005-June-16, 11:58
Jlall, on Jun 9 2005, 02:16 PM, said:
But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...
Arend
#35
Posted 2005-June-16, 12:03
Quote
after the 1S bid, I would expect to play 1NT or 2H doubled for minus 500 at least. The 1NT bid is usually an attempt to warn pard that you have their suits (you have no clubs) and that unless he has diamonds he should pass with only 5 hearts and hope. Change your diamonds to clubs and it gets a bit more reasonable with less chance of a double.
#36 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-June-16, 13:09
cherdano, on Jun 16 2005, 12:58 PM, said:
Jlall, on Jun 9 2005, 02:16 PM, said:
But doesn't everybody just blast games these days? How often have you made a game try in the last 1000 boards you played Justin? If you wait for invitational sequences until you double overbid games due to a bad trump break, you may wait a while...
Arend
Somehow I still believe in partnership bidding so if I have too much to pass and not enough to bid game then I make a game try. Old fashioned I know.
Sure people overbid games, but just because they bid one doesn't mean they are overbidding. When they do overbid to games, they never have balanced hands. They will have distribution. If one of my diamonds doesn't cash, I don't see beating them 500 ever. I see them working out the spade position and making their contract because I Xed. The problem on this hand is simply weighing the likelihood that they make (especially when they make BECAUSE of the X) versus the likelihood that you will get 500 or more. I judge the former more likely.
Additionally, because I said that I would X had they had an invitational auction this does not mean I wait for invitational auctions to X them. That logic does not follow, I simply think that if they had had an invitational auction that tips the scales more towards 500 being more likely than them making.
#38
Posted 2005-June-16, 16:33
Fluffy, on Jun 16 2005, 11:16 PM, said:
Two of them, but the tricky question is, of course, whether they would have scored 2 undertricks after a double as well -- see yourself:
Traveller
I think it's still down two.
(E.g. Heart to the Ace, ♥Q to the King, spade to the J and A, club to the king, spade to the Queen, but now our hero can just play another low spade and either score his ♠9 or declarer doesn't get his heart ruff)
Arend

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