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Close Decision

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-October-24, 14:05



To bid or not to bid that is the question. Doh, forgot to say it was IMPs
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2020-October-24, 14:08

I'm pulling for +500

Any other colors and I'm shooting out 3N
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2020-October-24, 15:03


Lamford 'To bid or not to bid that is the question.'
+++++++++++++++++++++++
I rate
1. Pass and lead a trump. Saves thought :)
2. 3NT without much confidence,
3. 4 Whatever we bid, there might be a better fit. Unless partner has 5+ , we are vulnerable to forces.

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#4 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2020-October-24, 15:12

I pass and don't think it is close.

When partner's make a second double they know that you'll often pass with balanced hands far more often these days, especially without a primary fit.
The Beer Card

I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades
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#5 User is online   Tramticket 

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Posted 2020-October-24, 15:22

 nige1, on 2020-October-24, 15:03, said:

Pass and lead a trump. Saves thought :)


A little thought might save you from leading out of turn! :)
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#6 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2020-October-25, 02:57

Partnerís second X reveals they donít have a strong 1-suiter. But a strong enough 3-suiter.

My 8 HCPs would rate to make game more often than not but the SK would tend to make 3NT the most likely one.

Will it play well? Either I can find 3 discards from dummy or Iím able to run 8 tricks immediately after winning SK on the 1st trick.

Will it score well? They are red we are green. Iíd be disappointed that they make 8 tricks.

It pretty much says it all.
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#7 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2020-October-25, 04:44

Pass (LoTT)
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#8 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2020-October-25, 05:18

And just for fun:

Dealer script:
predeal east SK743, HQT, DK53, C7432
south2S = hcp(south)<11 and spades(south)==6
west2ndX = hcp(west)>13 and spades(west)==0 and hearts(west)<6 and shape(west, any 5440 + any 6430)
produce 100
action average "Avg. tricks if S plays in spades:" (tricks(south,spades)), average "Avg. tricks if E plays in notrump:" (tricks(east,notrump)), average "Avg. tricks if E plays in clubs:" (tricks(east,clubs))
condition south2S and west2ndX

One run:
Avg. tricks if S plays in spades:: 7.61
Avg. tricks if E plays in notrump:: 7.53
Avg. tricks if E plays in clubs:: 10.07
Generated 801841 hands
Produced 100 hands
Initial random seed 1603624250
Time needed  109.008 sec

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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-October-26, 17:03

I pass, but Iím not optimistic about 500. Assuming opener has the spade Ace, heís taking 6 spade tricks, unless he needs to ruff something in dummy. Give him AQ109xx in spades and dummy two working Kings and weíre limited to 200.

However, the lay of the cards that allows them to take 8 tricks will almost always prevent us from making game.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-October-27, 17:39

View Postmikeh, on 2020-October-26, 17:03, said:

I pass, but I’m not optimistic about 500. Assuming opener has the spade Ace, he’s taking 6 spade tricks, unless he needs to ruff something in dummy. Give him AQ109xx in spades and dummy two working Kings and we’re limited to 200.

However, the lay of the cards that allows them to take 8 tricks will almost always prevent us from making game.

I conceded -730, of course, against two of Irelands' finest, Peter Goodman (ex Wales) and the legendary B J O'Brien.

https://www.dropbox....1m/730.png?dl=0

https://tinyurl.com/yys66hjr

Hope one of the two links works. Partner has a pristine 0-5-4-4 with None AJxxx QJxx AKJx. Sometimes ***** happens.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#11 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2020-October-28, 18:40

good post: I sort of like these posts that allow for a different answer depending on the form of scoring.

MP: PASS I know the opps have seen the vulnerability but the allure of + 200 w/o any strong reason to assume we have a game is too much to resist.

IMPS: 4c One can almost hear Dirty Harry saying this here is a 3s magnum and it can blow your head clean off. I honestly don't know if it is loaded or not but the real question is, Do you feel lucky punk? The 4 level should be pretty safe and doubling the opps for a possible 1 trick set just seems far too risky for me. Put me BEHIND the 2s bidder and I will pass all day.
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#12 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2020-October-28, 19:06

This link might be even better than the two that Paul posted. The Welsh international in the other room got it "right" by only going 3 down for +11. <_<
(-: Zel :-)

Happy New Year everyone!
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