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Defensive Dilemma Which major?

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 13:31


First division of a national league. IMPs converted to VPs.

You lead the three of clubs to partner's king and declarer's six. Partner returns the nine of clubs to declarer's jack and your queen. What now? Partner will return his higher of the two remaining clubs, almost routinely, so there are no suit preference connotations.
No, I meant exactly what I wrote; I believe BBO's claiming algorithm is about as perfect as it can get. It's basically the only aspect of GIB that I find faultless. - smerriman
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#2 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 14:37

Just on the principle "Lead through strength as opposed up to strength" I would lead a small as North at trick 3. There's just enough room for partner to have QJ10x and AK here. If West has one trick in s it looks like the contract is always there.
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#3 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 15:35

A spade.


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#4 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 15:59

View Postnullve, on 2020-July-09, 15:35, said:

A spade.




Yeah, this is the layout that I determined as well. Minor variations are possible, West could have KJ. But, if West holds the KJ, there really isn't any defense, so we have to dismiss it.

The Q and J could be swapped, leaving diamonds up to somewhat of a guess. Are they 2-2 or 3-1? Are clubs 4-4? Leading the spade fails when West has the K. (West absolutely can't have the A).

So, I think it's worth giving some consideration to the 10. Declarer can't play spade themselves, and still needs to get diamonds right, and the threat of South winning a third round of clubs is looming large.

That being said, partner could have QJ, so, I'd still prefer a spade exit, since a club loses to almost all layouts where declarer holds the Q.
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#5 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2020-July-09, 16:03

But maybe not just any spade. I want partner to rise with the K and lay down the Q when a heart is led from dummy. So the 2 (either indicating 3 or inviting a spade continuation, or both) seems best.
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#6 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2020-July-10, 04:23

View Postnullve, on 2020-July-09, 15:35, said:

A spade.




Yes, I had worked out the distributions of South and West here myself, but didn't take into consideration the pin of the J in the West hand if partner has Q10xx only, instead of QJ10x. That's what happens when you try to answer these forum posts quickly...
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