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Option Trading

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-04, 15:45


London Superleague. IMPs converted to VPs.

Sadly only two expert declarers faced this play problem, as it was a match rearranged online, so no other matches to compare. One made the contract; one failed. You get the 5 lead (fourth) to the ace and the 3 returned. If those are true cards, then the hearts are 3-4 with East having four. How do you play?
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-June-04, 16:10

Do they lead low from xxx and Hxx ?

It appears to me W has 3 spades and 3 hearts (he might well have led a spade with 4), so Hxx onside I'm gin, run the 8 at this point.
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#3 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-05, 10:15

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-June-04, 16:10, said:

Do they lead low from xxx and Hxx ?

It appears to me W has 3 spades and 3 hearts (he might well have led a spade with 4), so Hxx onside I'm gin, run the 8 at this point.

I think they lead second from xxx, and low from Hxx, but at the table we would ask. Also, might he prefer Qxx or Kxx to Jxx? And East would not need to return a true heart as the person who responded 1NT won't normally have four ...
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-June-05, 11:46

View Postlamford, on 2020-June-05, 10:15, said:

I think they lead second from xxx, and low from Hxx, but at the table we would ask. Also, might he prefer Qxx or Kxx to Jxx? And East would not need to return a true heart as the person who responded 1NT won't normally have four ...


My thinking was that if W can't have xxx, he's led from a holding he doesn't like (Jxx(x)), he might have preferred ANY spade holding to that and certainly would have preferred a 4 card holding.
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#5 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-June-05, 18:47

There are way too many options fo4 me to lay out a complete plan, but I start by winning the heart in dummy and playing the club A and J.

The defence has to duck, if they can, and even then the 10 may have appeared. Even the 8 appearing provides options.

Tell me what happens on the clubs, and I’ll tell you how I proceed. In all likelihood, if there is no good news in clubs, I cross in hearts to advance the spade Jack. Again, I need to know what happens before deciding what next.
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#6 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-05, 18:57

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-June-05, 11:46, said:

My thinking was that if W can't have xxx, he's led from a holding he doesn't like (Jxx(x)), he might have preferred ANY spade holding to that and certainly would have preferred a 4 card holding.

For a spade to be right at trick three, you only need, as you say, Hxx with West. I don't think he has Hxxx or he would definitely have led it, and with Hxx he might well have led it. I think most people would lead the stronger major here, and would prefer a four-card suit to a three-card suit, and prefer Kxx or Qxx to Jxx, but I have not done a simulation to compare.

An alternative line certainly merits consideration, which is to win the heart in dummy and lead the ace and jack of clubs. I think they need to duck this, and if the ten has not fallen, you play ace of diamonds, ten of diamonds to the king and then the queen of clubs. Now they cannot cash a club winner, even if neither minor has already provided the ninth trick, and while you are not completely gin, you can win the likely heart exit and can run the jack of spades. If East has KQx Axxx xx KTxx, you have to finesse the diamond instead, but you will know by now a lot more about the distribution.
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#7 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-05, 19:03

View Postmikeh, on 2020-June-05, 18:47, said:

There are way too many options fo4 me to lay out a complete plan, but I start by winning the heart in dummy and playing the club A and J.

The defence has to duck, if they can, and even then the 10 may have appeared. Even the 8 appearing provides options.

Tell me what happens on the clubs, and I’ll tell you how I proceed. In all likelihood, if there is no good news in clubs, I cross in hearts to advance the spade Jack. Again, I need to know what happens before deciding what next.

You typed your (as ever erudite) reply pretty much as I was typing my reply to Cyberyeti, and I agree with playing the ace and jack of clubs. The defence will duck but pretty much any line will work as clubs are 3-3. The unsuccessful declarer won in South and ran the jack of spades, but East had KQxx Axxx xx xxx. After East won, cleared the hearts, and declarer returned by ace and another diamond, the second losing spade finesse was fatal.
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#8 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2020-June-06, 03:23

View Postmikeh, on 2020-June-05, 18:47, said:

There are way too many options fo4 me to lay out a complete plan, but I start by winning the heart in dummy and playing the club A and J.

The defence has to duck, if they can, and even then the 10 may have appeared. Even the 8 appearing provides options.

Tell me what happens on the clubs, and I’ll tell you how I proceed. In all likelihood, if there is no good news in clubs, I cross in hearts to advance the spade Jack. Again, I need to know what happens before deciding what next.


That's exactly how I was going to play it, too. Eschew any notion of finessing the J because you need the outside entries for the, hopefully, good s in the South hand. To me, it just looked better than playing for the split honour finesse, though that does have chances, too, as Cyberyeti indicates.

Just practically at any no-trump contract I have invariably read that you need to tackle the suit with the most cards and the most honours between the two hands first to generate winners. The intermediate cards in s are a distraction though I can understand why players might go for that option.
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#9 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-June-06, 06:07

View Postlamford, on 2020-June-05, 18:57, said:


An alternative line certainly merits consideration, which is to win the heart in dummy and lead the ace and jack of clubs. I think they need to duck this, and if the ten has not fallen, you play ace of diamonds, ten of diamonds to the king and then the queen of clubs. Now they cannot cash a club winner, even if neither minor has already provided the ninth trick, and while you are not completely gin, you can win the likely heart exit and can run the jack of spades. If East has KQx Axxx xx KTxx, you have to finesse the diamond instead, but you will know by now a lot more about the distribution.


Can't E have KQxxx, Axxx, xx, xx where W exits a spade on winning the club and E clears the hearts on winning the spade ? Now you need to guess well.

If you think W would have led a spade from Hxx(x) instead of a heart from the J, if you win the second heart on the table and just play a spade, E wins and clears the hearts, you duck a further spade to him and he cashes the heart, you pitch the J (if the finesse is right you don't need to take it). E exits in a black suit, and you cash your black winners before unblocking the 10 under the A and coming to hand with the K. Watch the discards and decide if with Q, x opposite Q9 W has two diamonds or a diamond and the K left, if he had 4 diamonds and the club K he will have been squeezed.
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#10 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-June-06, 08:41

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-June-06, 06:07, said:

Can't E have KQxxx, Axxx, xx, xx where W exits a spade on winning the club and E clears the hearts on winning the spade ? Now you need to guess well.

If you think W would have led a spade from Hxx(x) instead of a heart from the J, if you win the second heart on the table and just play a spade, E wins and clears the hearts, you duck a further spade to him and he cashes the heart, you pitch the J (if the finesse is right you don't need to take it). E exits in a black suit, and you cash your black winners before unblocking the 10 under the A and coming to hand with the K. Watch the discards and decide if with Q, x opposite Q9 W has two diamonds or a diamond and the K left, if he had 4 diamonds and the club K he will have been squeezed.

Well, maybe you pass over 1D with your suggested east hand, but I suspect you’d be in a small minority. Edit: that reads sort of snarky. It wasn’t meant to be. Iirc you have posted in the past that your overcalls are very sound.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-June-06, 09:04

View Postmikeh, on 2020-June-06, 08:41, said:

Well, maybe you pass over 1D with your suggested east hand, but I suspect you’d be in a small minority. Edit: that reads sort of snarky. It wasn’t meant to be. Iirc you have posted in the past that your overcalls are very sound.


We would either pass or bid 2, probably pass here, KQ empty to 5 is not that attractive anyway opposite a passed partner.
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#12 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-06, 18:14

View Postmikeh, on 2020-June-06, 08:41, said:

Well, maybe you pass over 1D with your suggested east hand, but I suspect you’d be in a small minority. Edit: that reads sort of snarky. It wasn’t meant to be. Iirc you have posted in the past that your overcalls are very sound.

I agree. And the other hand East cannot have is KQxx Axxx xx Kxx as he would surely make a takeout double of 1D. The hand he had KQxx Axx(x) xx xxx(x) is the most likely type by a country mile, given that they led a heart not a spade. And I don't know if that expression is common in the US! And it does not matter what Cyberyeti would bid as East. I know for sure that he was not East on this particular hand.
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#13 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2020-June-08, 06:57

I might be being a bit thick but can't I just cash a third heart and run the jack of spades?

After cashing the fourth heart (my third loser), East has to give me an eighth trick cheaply and I can now just establish a ninth.

Slight fly in the ointment - I have to throw a spade on the last heart, so East can exit a club upon winning a spade honour, but it still looks like a near claimer.
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#14 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2020-June-08, 13:51

View PostPhilKing, on 2020-June-08, 06:57, said:

I might be being a bit thick but can't I just cash a third heart and run the jack of spades?

After cashing the fourth heart (my third loser), East has to give me an eighth trick cheaply and I can now just establish a ninth.

Slight fly in the ointment - I have to throw a spade on the last heart, so East can exit a club upon winning a spade honour, but it still looks like a near claimer.

More than a fly. Dummy is indeed squeezed on the last heart, and East will exit a club to the jack. If, after the club exit, you cash the ace of clubs and cross to the diamond, you now have to guess the diamonds as both a club and a spade fail in the five card ending. And not cashing the ace of clubs does not gain.

I am unconvinced that your line is better than playing the ace, then jack of clubs.
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#15 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-June-08, 16:08

View PostPhilKing, on 2020-June-08, 06:57, said:

I might be being a bit thick but can't I just cash a third heart and run the jack of spades?

After cashing the fourth heart (my third loser), East has to give me an eighth trick cheaply and I can now just establish a ninth.

Slight fly in the ointment - I have to throw a spade on the last heart, so East can exit a club upon winning a spade honour, but it still looks like a near claimer.

If we see nothing but small clubs on the A and Jack, we cross in hearts to run the spade Jack. Assume east wins. He can cash a heart, but now he is endplayed

A diamond is immediate suicide since we have 2 clubs already. A spade is suicide, even tho we pitched one from dummy, and if he leads a club, it must be either the King or the 10, either of which establishes our clubs. Note that we can pitch a spade from both hands.

Meanwhile, if either the king or 10 appear on the first two rounds of clubs, they cannot possibly beat us.

So while your line is favoured to win, the club AJ is significantly better.
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