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Excuse my stupidty but... The seeming illogic of coronavirus numbers

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 03:48

DISCLAIMER 1. The following is posted more for discussion and I claim no profesional certified status in the areas of virology, epidemiology, public health etc etc - but do have some related training and knowledge and dare I say some competence with common sense and numbers
DISCLAIMER 2: I'm in a moderate risk group and couldn't care less what takes me from this world - and a coronavirus sounds less unpleasant than many ways
DISCLAIMER 3: I know public health people have every right to be anxious and those in high risk groups

HOWEVER. My lifetime expertise is working with data, models, numbers, logic, research etc etc in many fields - irrelevant I know

SO come on some people

I am reading all the shock horror, panic panic by the doomsayers, who love to see disaster everywhere. Of course I'm not downplaying anything but tell me about this logic/lack of below

There have been so few cases with a seemingly high death rate, and very little testing, therefore people say we need to test everyone/many more to show how bad the situation is. If there are so few deaths and cases while only testing those with serious symptoms, massively expanding testing will just improve the numbers and show everyone its not as bad as the panic merchants like to make out

End Rant

Sorry everyone. Mock at will
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#2 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 04:07

One reason that coronavirus is getting so much attention is that that there is enormous uncertainty about the right hand tail of the distribution.

Flu is relatively well understood. It comes around every year. We understand the morbidity rates. We know the R factor. We know how likely the virus is to mutate. We're pretty sure about how many people are going to die.

None of this holds true about coronavirus.
It might be less serious than the fle OR it could end up being many many times worse.

And, as such it has people quite concerned.

In addition, coronavirus appears to be very contagious and, for certain populations it can be extremely lethal. The countries that are dealing well with this virus are ones like China that (eventually) adopted draconian policies around quarantine. Conversely, countries like Iran and Italy that failed to do so are seeing the virus spread throughout the population.

Finally, its nice that you are good at math. However, in trying to understand this type of issue I'm alot more interested in the opinion of epidemiologist who are good both in math AND in medicine and who study this sort of problem. This disease has them scared shitless. Yehudit wrote a nice article on this theme on bridge winners. https://bridgewinner...cceptable-risk/
Alderaan delenda est
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#3 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 04:30

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-10, 04:07, said:

Finally, its nice that you are good at math.

No need for such dismissive insulting sarcasm (@good at math@) if you knew my lifetime training, knowledge and expertise but I left myself open (intentionally) for such an attack. Anyone with my level of training and knoeldge can understand and analyse the many months of research - admitedly there are not many at my level and much of what is written is BS

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-10, 04:07, said:

However, in trying to understand this type of issue I'm alot more interested in the opinion of epidemiologist who are good both in math AND in medicine and who study this sort of problem. This disease has them scared shitless.

And the main reason, which I mentioned in my DISCLAIMERS is the overall public health risk and risk to high risk groups. However those numbers can and do potentially cause unnecessary anxiety in terms of real individual and marginal risk to many people. The campaign is to reduce spread but is potentially causing unnecesary pereptions of risk. People are not good judges of risk. We need to wait and see

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-10, 04:07, said:

Yehudit wrote a nice article on this theme on bridge winners. https://bridgewinner...cceptable-risk/


Thanks for the reference but I can claim similar skill, knlwedge and expertise as well as not being a doctor, epidemiologist or public health expert like the author of that excellent post. I could have written the introduction to that post myself. Maybe I'm too modest sometimes :)

But I left myself intentionally open to such a challenge and am happy for the reference. However I generally prefer to review the work by the virologists, epdiemiologists and public health and other experts (which I am more than trained and competent to do) rather than someone who claims none of those tags
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#4 User is online   sfi 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 05:24

View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 04:30, said:

Thanks for the reference but I can claim similar skill, knlwedge and expertise as well as not being a doctor, epidemiologist or public health expert like the author of that excellent post. I could have written the introduction to that post myself.

Maybe you could have. Maybe you could have written the entire article. But you didn't, and now it seems you're not even going to deign to read one of the more informed, informative and insightful articles on how this issue relates to the bridge world. Instead you post something even you describe as a rant.

So yeah, you're not doing well in establishing yourself as someone with a valid insight into the current situation.
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#5 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 05:28

View Postsfi, on 2020-March-10, 05:24, said:


So yeah, you're not doing well in establishing yourself as someone with a valid insight into the current situation.


Some of us don't have to establish ourselves. Our knowledge stands irrepsective of your views. Your loss buddy

The problem with this world now is that it is dominated by ignorance and people who spout their so-called knowledge as a replacement for insight. The people who actually do have knowledge, skill, training, experience and more importantly the ability to think and critically aalyse are being ignored these days in place a many self-proclaimed experts who think pieces of paper replace intellect

The good people are now being lost. Its not just your loss and others on this site. But the whole world's loss. I'm kind of beyond caring any more. I yook a break from the place after a year of ignorant abuse. Seems you are all still at it

What you people need to learn is that when a point is made to address the point without reorting to ad hom and relying on others with less or equal expertise. I mind a point and nobody challeneged it. That can be done irrepsective of what expertise you claim. You should all know that or the world is lost
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#6 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 05:54

View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 03:48, said:

DISCLAIMER 1. The following is posted more for discussion and I claim no profesional certified status in the areas of virology, epidemiology, public health etc etc - but do have some related training and knowledge and dare I say some competence with common sense and numbers
DISCLAIMER 2: I'm in a moderate risk group and couldn't care less what takes me from this world - and a coronavirus sounds less unpleasant than many ways
DISCLAIMER 3: I know public health people have every right to be anxious and those in high risk groups

HOWEVER. My lifetime expertise is working with data, models, numbers, logic, research etc etc in many fields - irrelevant I know

SO come on some people

I am reading all the shock horror, panic panic by the doomsayers, who love to see disaster everywhere. Of course I'm not downplaying anything but tell me about this logic/lack of below

There have been so few cases with a seemingly high death rate, and very little testing, therefore people say we need to test everyone/many more to show how bad the situation is. If there are so few deaths and cases while only testing those with serious symptoms, massively expanding testing will just improve the numbers and show everyone its not as bad as the panic merchants like to make out

End Rant

Sorry everyone. Mock at will


This motivated me to look at what the CDC has put out. They also have people who have expertise in working with data.

See https://www.cdc.gov/...oV/summary.html

I would not call their report panicky, but I also would not call it dismissive. For example:
"It is important to note that current circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC’s risk assessment will be updated as needed."

Also:

"More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time."

And then, what I think is very important:

"The complete clinical picture with regard to COVID-19 is not fully known."


To me, it seems pretty clear that the severity will depend very much on how people behave. We do not know how many are infected and we are not prepared to determine just who is and who is not infected. Cautious behavior is apt to be both good for that cautious individual and good for the community/nation/world by keeping the number of cases down


Will the health service be overwhelmed? I think the only honest answer is that we don't know. The CDC report certainly speaks of potential. Different people will choose different ways of responding but I see it as important for both myself and for the community to take some care. Some serious level of care. I do not regard that as panicking.
Ken
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#7 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 08:06

View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 04:30, said:

No need for such dismissive insulting sarcasm (@good at math@) if you knew my lifetime training, knowledge and expertise but I left myself open (intentionally) for such an attack. Anyone with my level of training and knoeldge can understand and analyse the many months of research - admitedly there are not many at my level and much of what is written is BS


And the main reason, which I mentioned in my DISCLAIMERS is the overall public health risk and risk to high risk groups. However those numbers can and do potentially cause unnecessary anxiety in terms of real individual and marginal risk to many people. The campaign is to reduce spread but is potentially causing unnecesary pereptions of risk. People are not good judges of risk. We need to wait and see



Thanks for the reference but I can claim similar skill, knlwedge and expertise as well as not being a doctor, epidemiologist or public health expert like the author of that excellent post. I could have written the introduction to that post myself. Maybe I'm too modest sometimes :)

But I left myself intentionally open to such a challenge and am happy for the reference. However I generally prefer to review the work by the virologists, epdiemiologists and public health and other experts (which I am more than trained and competent to do) rather than someone who claims none of those tags


ThePossum appears to be off his meds once more...
Alderaan delenda est
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#8 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 08:23

View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 03:48, said:

DISCLAIMER 1. The following is posted more for discussion and I claim no profesional certified status in the areas of virology, epidemiology, public health etc etc - but do have some related training and knowledge and dare I say some competence with common sense and numbers
DISCLAIMER 2: I'm in a moderate risk group and couldn't care less what takes me from this world - and a coronavirus sounds less unpleasant than many ways
DISCLAIMER 3: I know public health people have every right to be anxious and those in high risk groups

HOWEVER. My lifetime expertise is working with data, models, numbers, logic, research etc etc in many fields - irrelevant I know

SO come on some people

I am reading all the shock horror, panic panic by the doomsayers, who love to see disaster everywhere. Of course I'm not downplaying anything but tell me about this logic/lack of below

There have been so few cases with a seemingly high death rate, and very little testing, therefore people say we need to test everyone/many more to show how bad the situation is. If there are so few deaths and cases while only testing those with serious symptoms, massively expanding testing will just improve the numbers and show everyone its not as bad as the panic merchants like to make out

End Rant

Sorry everyone. Mock at will


I just posted this on another thread. You might want to read it.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#9 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-March-10, 10:10

What's with all the secret squirrel stuff? Use your real name so people can check your bona fides. Its like listening to a MAGA rally.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek; Schämen sich Roboter, wenn sie lügen?
J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots
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#10 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:21

WTF

Does everyone else on these forums give their identities.

I'm not claiming anything at all. Just ***** off and leave me alone

Are you all assholes
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#11 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:21

WTF

Does everyone else on these forums give their identities.

I'm not claiming anything at all. Just ***** off and leave me alone

Are you all assholes
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#12 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:22

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-10, 08:06, said:

ThePossum appears to be off his meds once more...


What meds you asshole

You are just a bunch of obnoxious bullying assholes
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#13 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:26

I'm going to request that all my Forum threads are removed from this site

Everytime I post anything for discussion I get a full on assault from the likes of Hrothgar and his mates

They have been attacking me for years. I took a break but as soon as I come back they launch into personal attack mode and even make extremely offensive personal insinuating comments

Hrothgar is probably the ring leader and clearly has been running a bullying and harassment ring on this site for years

I'm out of here. I've said this over and over again

What an obnoxious place ruined by some truly obnoxious people
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#14 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:32

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-10, 08:06, said:

ThePossum appears to be off his meds once more...

Dear Asshole Hrothgar

Just ***** off and bully someone else you psychopathic *****ed up asshole

Ok

***** off and leave me alone you obnoxious *****

Years of this behaviour is disgusting

I never attacked anyone in this site but every time you stir up and start attacks

***** off whoever you are
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#15 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:43

PS

I don't suggest anyone continues this thread if you want to stay out of suspicion of bullying and harassment over many years

I have reported it previously to moderators and even senior management of BBO. Also the disgusting behaviour by some at tables

Sadly nobody seems to care about certain individuals. I have observed same bullying others on several occasions

So, despite the fact that BBO seems to condone obnoxious behaviour so be it

I will probably be the one banned. That's how the assholes here work. Attacking the victim of harassment

***** off
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#16 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 08:50

It is absolutely disgusting behaviour by some people who I imagine are respected professional people against someone such as myself who always behaves in a courteous and professional way towards everyone in my life personally and professionally

I only ever defend myself against extreme cases of harassment and bullying

I have done it in other forums and will do it as long as any bully dares cross my path

Bullies such as some on this site are the cause of so many problems and destroy innocent people's lives and careers

I observed it and experienced it here and other places
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#17 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 09:02

I put up a simple and reasonable post about testing and numbers of cases, and true ratios. Points that have been made by several experts over recent weeks.

What happens. The usual suspect who thinks he runs this site and gas the right to attack who he likes launches into yet another personal attack

Ironically when this all started he seemed to be a bit more reasonable than the most obnoxious characters

But it soon became clear that he is either one of the ringleaders or started attacking me for daring to stand up against the disgusting bullying culture I observed

Wish I had never come back

Bye all good people. Hope I never need to meet any of the bullies in real life. I defend myself physically when attacked too

Bye
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#18 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 09:08

View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 03:48, said:

End Rant

Sorry everyone. Mock at will



View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-10, 05:28, said:

Some of us don't have to establish ourselves. Our knowledge stands irrespective of your views.



View Postthepossum, on 2020-March-11, 08:21, said:

WTF

Does everyone else on these forums give their identities.

I'm not claiming anything at all. Just ***** off and leave me alone

Are you all assholes

These 3 quotes taken together pretty much sum up the thread. There does not seem to be much to add other than for the mods to clear the thread up ready for archiving.
(-: Zel :-)

Happy New Year everyone!
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#19 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2020-March-11, 09:31

When are ya gonna come down?
When are ya going to learn?
I should have stayed on the farm,
I should have listened to my old man
You know you can't hold me forever
I didn't sign up for you
I'm not a thing for your friends to ogle
And novel coronavirus isn't the flu!

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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Posted 2020-March-12, 10:39

Let's please calm down. I read the following post by Eugene Hung, the lead moderator at Bridge Winners, and he's allowed me to copy it here.

Quote

Over the past week, in my role as moderator of Bridge Winners, I've noticed a significant increase in the number of posts flagged as offensive and/or political. It seems like every hour there's a new flag and someone being offended by something posted by another user.

I will acknowledge that these are not normal times, which is why our front page is dominated by discussions that are related to bridge but not actually about the game. I also understand that sometimes people feel the need to crack a joke to relieve some of the stress they're feeling. But please realize that right now, we are in a situation where we are all facing a deadly enemy that isn't even human, one that will require all of us to change our lives and pitch in together to defeat. As every bridge player knows, you don't get the best results (or partners) if you keep criticizing or making fun of partner after a bad mistake. We are ALL partners now in this endeavor, no matter what your race, religion, or political creed. Please keep that in mind before you post.

Thank you all for taking the time to read this message. Stay healthy, partners!

We need the same community spirit here as well.

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