[sakuragi]

lets assume US market ....
or does it matter which market it is?

[Winstonm]

The DOW seems to have support around 24,300. I would not buy until that low was tested and held.

[barmar]

I happened to have a large cash position because I sold a bunch of funds in December to realize losses, in order to offset large capital gain distributions from other funds. My financial advisor felt last week was a good time to reinvest it.

[kenberg]

I am some combination of weird and lazy. When Trump became president I thought "This is not going to go well, maybe I should sell all of my stocks {Not that I have all that much]" But I didn't, and stocks kept going up. Holding on was not brilliant, it was lazy. Now the stocks are tumbling down. Acting wisely would, at least, require me to think about the stock market. I suppose that I should.

I suppose this could sound like I think of myself as above all such mundane matters as money. That's not exactly it. In my early years my finances were very very limited and I deeply think it is very important to have enough money. But after having that, I have just never thought it to be very important to have a lot more money. So the stocks do their thing.

This doesn't mean that I will never change my mind, but the lethargy is strong. I am very aware of my lack of savvy about Wall Street matters, that is not at all false modesty, and maybe I now have to deal with this. So far I haven't. When the market is going up, lethargy can look like wisdom.

Buy low, sell high/ Ah yes, that's what I am supposed to do.

[Winstonm]

Winstonm, on 2020-March-08, 09:13, said:

The DOW seems to have support around 24,300. I would not buy until that low was tested and held.

Quote

24,266.16-1,598.62 (-6.18%)
As of 1:15PM EDT. Market open.

You're welcome.

[kenberg]

The latest drop illustrates my approach. Apparently Saudi Arabia and Russia are having a tiff. I had not heard of this until maybe ten minutes ago. To take advantage of it I would have tp be listening to news about oil over the weekend and get right in at the opening of the market, or preferably be so wise that sometime on Friday I could anticipate this.

Of course I could now buy. Tomorrow I will fine out if I should have. Today I am going out for a walk and then I will play some bridge.

[thepossum]

Dont have enough spare cash but would have bought yesterday afternoon Australian time

Would have been a bit nervous first hour this morning that bears were taking over but.....

Maybe the bears are still there but come on - a bit of virus panic and excessive oil panic doesnt change an economy overnight ... and China is back at work by all accounts despite them having had a virus outbreak - sadly cant say the the same for the rest of the world

In fact with all that cheap oil out there and the lack of a chance to fly to Europe (with its huge footprint) thinking of investing in several tanks of petrol (gas for Americans) and going for a long driving holiday instead - unless we get locked down by this stupid virus. Its a shame we cant buy petrol (gas for Americans) now and pick it up when we need it

Who cares about climate change. All that matters is the economy right now

[pilowsky]

Woody Allen said that an investment adviser manages your money until it is all gone.

[barmar]

pilowsky, on 2020-March-10, 03:18, said:

Woody Allen said that an investment adviser manages your money until it is all gone.

I've been working with my Ameriprise financial planner for over 25 years (they were part of American Express at the time). He's not paid on commissions, he gets a percentage of my account value, so he has no incentive to trade frequently. I'm a long-term, aggressive investor, and so far it's worked pretty well; assuming he's not lying to me, I've generally been doing a little better than the market with a little less volatility.

So the generalization doesn't always apply, I'm very happy with my guy.

[Winstonm]

The battle over 24,300 is fully engaged. If that doesn't hold, who knows?

[Winstonm]

Technically speaking, the next support level on the DOW isn't until 17,800 range.

[Winstonm]

Keep in mind that with great devastation comes great opportunity. DOW on the way to 18,000, below that the next support is all the way to 12, 000, so I am pretty sure 18K will hold, and there may be an upward swing prior to that range.

Should be many bargains in the travel and entertainment sections if their balance sheets are strong enough to weather 1-2 years of collapse.

[hrothgar]

For what its worth, I have been in all cash for a couple years now
I wasn't quite sure what would cause things to blow up, but things felt way to frothy and I didn't trust the butterscotch shitgibbon not to bollox things up.

And I was feeling pretty bad about this
Less so now.

[Winstonm]

hrothgar, on 2020-March-12, 08:17, said:

For what its worth, I have been in all cash for a couple years now
I wasn't quite sure what would cause things to blow up, but things felt way to frothy and I didn't trust the butterscotch shitgibbon not to bollox things up.

And I was feeling pretty bad about this
Less so now.

Great move. There will be opportunities on the horizon, especially stocks that have taken the worst beatings like SIX.

[shyams]

I will probably start buying (in parts) at close of business today. It is quite probable that the market could continue to drop but then it is also possible that we are somewhere close to the bottom, and given that I cannot time the market perfectly I am happy to reenter at this price, realising that I could have done better.

[FelicityR]

I believe a lot of the problem with the Stock Market (as my husband keeps telling me) is that there are so many platforms for trading money that it has become more volatile in recent times with corporate greed. Add to that algorithmic trading and anything can happen. A small OEIC/Unit Trust portfolio that has returned approximately 7.5% yearly income has seen its profit almost wiped out. So much for the years of careful investing.

It's always the small investors who get hit the hardest. That's just my opinion. I'm not going to jump out of a high window just yet, not that's realistically possible as I live in a bungalow

Anyway, as I always say you can't take it with you, and people's lives are infinitely more important than money. Although this stock market crash will impact on many people's lives.

[kenberg]

As some sort of sick amusement I was watching the fluctuations in the djia for a while. My conclusion is that I have no idea where the market will be at the end of today,let alone where it will be next week or next month.

In general I favor Richard's approach "I wasn't quite sure what would cause things to blow up, but things felt way to frothy.""

This seemed right to me as well although, regrettably, I did not act on it. My wife did act on it, on basically the same reasoning. As my stocks grew she felt maybe she had made a mistake. Well, she no longer thinks that! She is not gloating, but definitely happy. And I am content that I did not put more money into the market after the fall to 24,000 or so.


I have money in the market because, over the long term that's a good idea. I have no plans whatsoever to learn how to play the market to get rich. Over the last ten years, having stocks was the right idea, or at ;east not a horrible idea. Yes, it would have been better to sell a while back. And at some point it would be a good idea to buy. I am not under the impression that I know when that is, but I am pretty sure I should not casually take the advice of others.

[Winstonm]

It is said that the market discounts ahead of realities, about 6 months or so. That would mean that what is happening in the markets this week is in advance of what the expected situation will be 6 months from now. Same is true coming out of a downturn. When a recession actually begins, the markets begin the long climb back up.

[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2020-March-16, 10:33, said:

It is said that the market discounts ahead of realities, about 6 months or so. That would mean that what is happening in the markets this week is in advance of what the expected situation will be 6 months from now. Same is true coming out of a downturn. When a recession actually begins, the markets begin the long climb back up.

Yes, that is said. But practically speaking, does it actually mean anything? Investors try to foresee what will happen. Sure, who doesn't? The huge declines of the last couple of weeks came from unexpected realities. That happens. So investors try to accurately predict, the better ones are pretty good at it in normal times, sometimes, such as when a pandemic hits, they do not foresee it and things get crazy. That makes sense. But "discount ahead of realities"? Seems lie that can mean whatever one wishes it to mean at the moment.

I again acknowledge very limited understanding of markets, but the djia is ow a little below 21,000. How should I understand that in terms discounting ahead of realities, in the practical sense of whether I should buy or sell? Perhaps I should be doing one or the other, but beats me as to which.

I just sit back (well, usually) and let it go where it goes. Probably not best, but you can't beat it for easy. We aren't speaking of enormous sums here.

[Winstonm]

Technically speaking (meaning via charts of past events), the next support level for the DOW is all the way down at around 17,900. There likely will be huge up and down swings but the trend stays down, down, down.

However, with great tragedy comes great opportunity. Those in cash right now have a great chance of making a huge amount down the road.