[cherdano]

Gilithin, on 2021-August-31, 16:39, said:

The HoR is not in the slightest representative. The extreme gerrymandering means that once you have control you only need 40% or so of the vote to keep it. The USA is more or less one Presidential election away from permanent minority government ifwhen the GOP chooses to go down that route andafter Dems fail to take preemptive action during this administration to prevent it.

FYP.

[pilowsky]

Studies on long-term outcomes following hospitalisation with COVID-19 are beginning to emerge.
Here is one from the Lancet.
The main takeaway message is that the large majority of people that are hospitalised with COVID and recover do return to normal life. However, some continue to have problems.

From my personal experience, we have much less resilience once we get past the age of 60.
Repair is rarely complete, and pains niggle on for longer than they used to.

Here is the main conclusion/summary:

Quote

Most COVID-19 survivors had a good physical and functional recovery during 1-year follow-up, and had returned to their original work and life. The health status in our cohort of COVID-19 survivors at 12 months was still lower than that in the control population. Huang L.; Lancet 2021; 398: 747–58

[johnu]

Oklahoma's ERs are so backed up with people overdosing on ivermectin, gunshot victims are having to wait to be treated

Quote

An ER doctor in Oklahoma says rural hospitals in the state are clogged up by people overdosing on ivermectin.

Dr. Jason McElyea said the bed shortage is so severe that gunshot victims have to wait their turn.

McElyea said he saw people reporting vision loss after overdosing on the horse deworming drug.

It must be nice to live in Oklahoma, right Winston I'll bet you've got some stories to tell.

[pilowsky]

Australia is now on track to vaccinate the entire (eligible) population before the end of the year (minus a small number of people that others describe better than me).
In the meantime, Sydney is locked down tighter than a metaphor about crabs.
With delta grabbing hold of 1000+ citizens daily it's a race.
All of which highlights the stupidity and incompetence of our political ("we'll be guided by the science" - so long as we agree with it and it doesn't upset our constituents) leaders.

[Winstonm]

johnu, on 2021-September-03, 01:41, said:

Oklahoma's ERs are so backed up with people overdosing on ivermectin, gunshot victims are having to wait to be treated



It must be nice to live in Oklahoma, right Winston I'll bet you've got some stories to tell.

Our state motto? At Least We're Not Texas!

[johnu]

A leader of a movement touting toxic bleach as a 'miracle' COVID-19 cure has been charged following a 5-year-old boy's death

Quote

Argentinian authorities charged Andreas Kalcker with falsely promoting toxic bleach as a medical cure.

The investigation was launched after a boy, 5, died after being given the substance by his parents.

Chlorine dioxide is a type of industrial bleaching agent commonly used to treat wood products.

Honestly, I find this story hard to believe. How is this guy not a Republican congressman or a Fox Propaganda "entertainer". Is chlorine dioxide anti-vaxxers next hydroxychloroquine or ivermectin?

[pilowsky]

Swallowing bleach is a surprisingly common method for attempting suicide (e.g. https://pubmed.ncbi....h.gov/16885747/).
Unfortunately, the lines between psychosis and reality are blurred because of the former thingy's recommendation.

[johnu]

Bat Superpowers

There was an interesting Nova (US public tv) program about bats and why they are filled with viruses (e.g. coronaviruses) yet never seem to get sick from them. A subthread of the show was that bats live extraordinarily long lives for their size, and don't seem to age and how humans could potentially benefit from knowing why.

One theory of their virus resistance is that their resistance to viruses came about when the first early bats started to fly and their immune systems developed a resistance to causing inflammation caused by the physical exertion of flying which stressed their immune systems. In Covid, cytokine storms an uncontrollable inflammatory response from the immune system which end up harming the host.

Another theory is that because bats have such an active and strong immune system, coronaviruses that exist in bats are a kind of super strain, so when they jump species they cause a lot more damage.

[pilowsky]

johnu, on 2021-September-16, 19:48, said:

Bat Superpowers

There was an interesting Nova (US public tv) program about bats and why they are filled with viruses (e.g. coronaviruses) yet never seem to get sick from them. A subthread of the show was that bats live extraordinarily long lives for their size, and don't seem to age and how humans could potentially benefit from knowing why.

One theory of their virus resistance is that their resistance to viruses came about when the first early bats started to fly and their immune systems developed a resistance to causing inflammation caused by the physical exertion of flying which stressed their immune systems. In Covid, cytokine storms an uncontrollable inflammatory response from the immune system which end up harming the host.

Another theory is that because bats have such an active and strong immune system, coronaviruses that exist in bats are a kind of super strain, so when they jump species they cause a lot more damage.

Bats have a relatively low average heart rate - especially when hibernating (obviously).
Longevity is inversely related to heart rate; Across (but not within) species.
The blue-throated hummingbird doesn't stand a chance.

We can draw a straight line from human destruction of the climate to the reduction of habitat to the intermingling of species to the admixture of viral reservoirs that don't usually see humans.

[pescetom]

pilowsky, on 2021-September-17, 00:55, said:

Bats have a relatively low average heart rate - especially when hibernating (obviously).
Longevity is inversely related to heart rate; Across (but not within) species.
The blue-throated hummingbird doesn't stand a chance.

This paper seems to conclude that across species, longevity is more about scale than heart rate; fast beating chickens live almost as long as slow beating big dogs (and reach the same lifetime total of beats as a human).
Unfortunately it doesn't include data for bats. Fascinating to learn about giraffe blood pressure and why, though

[pilowsky]

In February 2020 - that was a long time ago - Anthony Fauci and Robert Redfield penned an Editorial for the New England Journal of Medicine.
You can read it here.

Fauci, Lane & Redfield said:

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

[pilowsky]

A lot of heat is being generated over the Ivermectin story.
It seems that anything that has anything to do with COVID19 now takes on a political flavour.
Yes. Getting vaccinated is the number one thing to do.
Politicising the development of medications for people that get the disease is bad.

Here is a reference to an article entitled "Ivermectin as a potential treatment for COVID-19?"
The authors (actual experts) point out several critical inadequacies in the RCT recently conducted.

[pilowsky]

This year the Nobel prize for economics (some would argue an oxymoron) went to Card (Canada) for "Empirical contributions to labour economics" and to Angrist (USA) and Imbens (Netherlands) for "Methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships". All three now work in the USA.
The idea is that natural experiments are everywhere (Card), and careful observation allows one to infer causal relationships when examining the data appropriately (Angrist and Imbens).
Natural experiments have been around for a very long time. I think that it was the development of the mathematical modelling that was so exciting to the Nobel committee.
This award led me to wonder what we can infer from uptake rates of the vaccine in countries where it is freely available.
I don't know enough about the methodology, but I see that the literature is already pretty rich in this kind of work.
Here are two commentaries in Circulation (a very highly ranked journal in the field of cardiology):https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.048671 and https://www.ahajourn...AHA.120.047538.

Uptake of COVID vaccination in Australia seems to be reaching a plateau at about 90-92% of people aged 16 and over.
Many factors can be considered important when comparing these data to underdeveloped 2nd world countries such as Florida where the uptake rate for vaccination seems a little lower.
One could argue that the concept of 'mateship' which is deeply embedded in Australian culture has led to our excellent uptake despite the efforts of the Murdoch press here to **** us up, and despite the ingrained contempt for the government (and pretty reasonable it is too), Australians have a well-developed sense of helping their mates (other Australians).
Even so, there does seem to be a population of about 5-10% who are as silly as a wheel. Nothing will convince them not to die.
I've met many of them; reality is just not their thing.

[y66]

Good take on the endgame for covid from Bob Wachter via David Leonhardt at NYT:

https://messaging-cu...896ed87b2d9c72a

[Gilithin]

pilowsky, on 2021-October-12, 03:17, said:

Even so, there does seem to be a population of about 5-10% who are as silly as a wheel. Nothing will convince them not to die.
I've met many of them; reality is just not their thing.

Valar morghulis.

[y66]

From Covid-19 is likely to fade away in 2022 by Edward Carr, Deputy Editor, The Economist:

Quote

Pandemics do not die—they fade away. And that is what covid-19 is likely to do in 2022. True, there will be local and seasonal flare-ups, especially in chronically undervaccinated countries. Epidemiologists will also need to watch out for new variants that might be capable of outflanking the immunity provided by vaccines. Even so, over the coming years, as covid settles into its fate as an endemic disease, like flu or the common cold, life in most of the world is likely to return to normal—at least, the post-pandemic normal.

Behind this prospect lie both a stunning success and a depressing failure. The success is that very large numbers of people have been vaccinated and that, at each stage of infection from mild symptoms to intensive care, new medicines can now greatly reduce the risk of death.

Quote

Covid is not done yet. But by 2023, it will no longer be a life-threatening disease for most people in the developed world. It will still pose a deadly danger to billions in the poor world. But the same is, sadly, true of many other conditions. Covid will be well on the way to becoming just another disease.

[cherdano]

y66, on 2021-November-12, 07:28, said:

Good take on the endgame for covid from Bob Wachter via David Leonhardt at NYT:

https://messaging-cu...896ed87b2d9c72a

Uhm.

Dr. Angela Rasmussen @angie_rasmussen said:

Which precautions should stay and which should go?

Many experts have many opinions on this, but you should know that David Leonhardt is not one of them. Actual experts/responsible journalists don’t cherry-pick quotes & data to justify the conclusion they want to be true.

Note that Bob Wachter also felt the need to clarify his quotes - https://twitter.com/...198230994980870

The timing of this article is particularly Leonhardtish. With its slow booster uptake, the next US wave is certainly coming. If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

[pilowsky]

RonDeSecrateUs said:

NO VAX NO VOTE


In a shock move yesterday the Governor has decided that only fully vaccinated individuals will be allowed to vote.

The Governor said that too many unidentified people are entering our polling stations.

"To prevent these people from casting illegal ballots, I am today signing into law a bill that requires all voters to identify themselves by showing proof of vaccination. "

[y66]

cherdano, on 2021-November-14, 17:25, said:

Uhm.

Note that Bob Wachter also felt the need to clarify his quotes - https://twitter.com/...198230994980870

The timing of this article is particularly Leonhardtish. With its slow booster uptake, the next US wave is certainly coming. If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

Leonhardt starts off his Nov 12 newsletter with

Quote

Among the Covid experts I regularly talk with, Dr. Robert Wachter is one of the more cautious. He worries about “long Covid,” and he believes that many people should receive booster shots.

As you point out, that's not exactly a forceful case for getting boosters when, as Wachter pointed out yesterday:

Quote

If vax used to prevent 95% of infectns, then wanes, but protection can be restored via safe/cheap boost (not only prevents cases/Long Covid–it also keeps community safer), why NOT do that?

and as Eric Topol points out today:

Quote

The new data from England today shows a booster (3rd) shot increased vaccine effectiveness from 44% to 93% for Astra Zeneca and from 62.5 to 94% for Pfizer, vs symptomatic infection, age 50+

[Gilithin]

cherdano, on 2021-November-14, 17:25, said:

If you live in the US and want covid to be over, the best thing to do is to stop reading Leonhardt and instead urge all your friends and relatives who are eligible to get a booster. Anyone over 65, anyone with health conditions (quite broad), anyone working in a "high risk" (healthcare, schools) setting is eligible if they've been fully vaccinated for 6 months.

y66, on 2021-November-15, 11:14, said:

and as Eric Topol points out today:

The last information I saw was recommending a booster for anyone in the right categories over 40.