thepossum, on 2019-October-23, 23:20, said:

Thanks for any comments and guidance on Soloways.

P

Currently in hiding for a while but here are some Sim results which kind of back up any side of the argument (using bdeal). Not really good enough for me to bid past game but each to their own

Assumptions by North of South's hand

Sim 1: 15+ HCPs and splinter clubs (Gib doesnt know), 6+ spade points

Mean spade tricks by S: 23105 / 2000 = 11.5525 An 0.0446834 (95% conf.) min: 8 max: 13 sdev: 1.01894

chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0

chance to win 2S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0

chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008

chance to win 4S by S: 1951 / 2000 = 0.9755 An 0.00677942 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.154595

chance to win 5S by S: 1710 / 2000 = 0.855 An 0.0154406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.352101

chance to win 6S by S: 1053 / 2000 = 0.5265 An 0.0218955 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.499297

Number of hands dealt: 621821. CPU time usage [sec]: 34.34 (x8 threads).

Sim 2: 15+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points

Mean spade tricks by S: 22700 / 2000 = 11.35 An 0.046791 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 1.06701

chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0

chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551

chance to win 3S by S: 1987 / 2000 = 0.9935 An 0.00352401 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0803601

chance to win 4S by S: 1920 / 2000 = 0.96 An 0.00859333 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.195959

chance to win 5S by S: 1590 / 2000 = 0.795 An 0.0177034 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.403702

chance to win 6S by S: 906 / 2000 = 0.453 An 0.0218293 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.497786

Number of hands dealt: 191328. CPU time usage [sec]: 28.02 (x8 threads).

Sim 3: 17+ HCPs and no splinter assumption, 6+ spade points

Mean spade tricks by S: 23412 / 2000 = 11.706 An 0.0436453 (95% conf.) min: 7 max: 13 sdev: 0.995271

chance to win 1S by S: 2000 / 2000 = 1 An 0 (95% conf.) min: 1 max: 1 sdev: 0

chance to win 2S by S: 1999 / 2000 = 0.9995 An 0.000980331 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0223551

chance to win 3S by S: 1997 / 2000 = 0.9985 An 0.00169713 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0387008

chance to win 4S by S: 1959 / 2000 = 0.9795 An 0.00621406 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.141703

chance to win 5S by S: 1791 / 2000 = 0.8955 An 0.0134149 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.305908

chance to win 6S by S: 1187 / 2000 = 0.5935 An 0.0215396 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.49118

Number of hands dealt: 626902. CPU time usage [sec]: 35.11 (x8 threads).

Note. I think An is two (1.96??) standard errors (funny character in my command window)