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What is Percentage

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 05:14


IMPs.

Fewer than half the declarers made this tricky 3NT from the LMBA Teams yesterday. How would you play?
a) On the lead of the two of clubs. If you play low from dummy East will play the nine, and the ten would be covered.
b) On the lead of the queen of hearts to the ace and a heart return.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#2 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 08:01

I can see how people went off on a heart lead.

They won the K, played spades conceding one to establish the 5th one, and a club came back, now when they played a diamond to make an entry for the 5th spade, another club came back cutting them off from A.

On the club lead I would play the 10 because I'm missing the 987, although a mis defense from H8x is possible if you play low.
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#3 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 08:34

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-July-15, 08:01, said:

They won the K, played spades conceding one to establish the 5th one, and a club came back, now when they played a diamond to make an entry for the 5th spade, another club came back cutting them off from A.


By now the defence have five tricks (the spade you lost, the diamond you lost to create an entry, two clubs and the ace of hearts, You're too late even if you get back for the ace of diamonds.

It seems to me that playing on spades will only work if they are 3-3, as you can't force an entry quickly enough.

It doesn't look like playing on hearts is any better since the second part of the question suggests that south holds QJ9(X).

There doesn't seem to be any hurry to test the spades, so maybe play the club 10 as Cyberyeti suggests and duck when north plays the jack or queen (i'm not an optimist). Then play a diamond, hoping to judge an end-play later?
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#4 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 10:58

View PostTramticket, on 2019-July-15, 08:34, said:

By now the defence have five tricks (the spade you lost, the diamond you lost to create an entry, two clubs and the ace of hearts, You're too late even if you get back for the ace of diamonds.

It seems to me that playing on spades will only work if they are 3-3, as you can't force an entry quickly enough.

It doesn't look like playing on hearts is any better since the second part of the question suggests that south holds QJ9(X).

There doesn't seem to be any hurry to test the spades, so maybe play the club 10 as Cyberyeti suggests and duck when north plays the jack or queen (i'm not an optimist). Then play a diamond, hoping to judge an end-play later?


It helps if you quote the whole quote - "I can see how people went off on a heart lead." the defence have NO club tricks yet.
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#5 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 12:35

View PostTramticket, on 2019-July-15, 08:34, said:

It seems to me that playing on spades will only work if they are 3-3, as you can't force an entry quickly enough.

I don't think this is true. Although how you play on spades is unclear. I do think if spades are not coming in and the king of diamonds is offside you are struggling though.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#6 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2019-July-15, 13:45

Not an expert, as I always say, but running the 10 looks as good as any. Hoping s are 3-3 is playing against the odds.
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#7 User is offline   alok c 

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Posted 2019-July-16, 12:26

For a lead, duck the second also.West is likely to return a , take A & run the 10 not covering even if West plays J. Makes when East holds K & are not worse than 4-2.
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#8 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-17, 06:08

View Postalok c, on 2019-July-16, 12:26, said:

For a lead, duck the second also.West is likely to return a , take A & run the 10 not covering even if West plays J. Makes when East holds K & are not worse than 4-2.

Why is West likely to return a club? He should clearly play a diamond, ducked, taking out a late entry. I don't think it can be right to duck the second heart.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#9 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-17, 06:18

View Postlamford, on 2019-July-17, 06:08, said:

Why is West likely to return a club? He should clearly play a diamond, ducked, taking out a late entry. I don't think it can be right to duck the second heart.


I don't see any benefit to ducking the heart, other than if it gives you an entry back to hand, and a diamond return after the duck (not covered) means E can mess you up with Jxxx by ducking the 10. So win the heart and table 10.
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-17, 07:20

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-July-17, 06:18, said:

I don't see any benefit to ducking the heart, other than if it gives you an entry back to hand, and a diamond return after the duck (not covered) means E can mess you up with Jxxx by ducking the 10. So win the heart and table 10.

If East returns a diamond instead of a second heart, what would you do?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#11 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-17, 07:52

View Postlamford, on 2019-July-17, 07:20, said:

If East returns a diamond instead of a second heart, what would you do?


I have to duck, no choice (defence have 3 diamond tricks if I play the A so I only make if spades are 3-3 or Jx) I now have the extra chance of generating a second heart trick if the spades misbehave.
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#12 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 07:24

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-July-17, 07:52, said:

I have to duck, no choice (defence have 3 diamond tricks if I play the A so I only make if spades are 3-3 or Jx) I now have the extra chance of generating a second heart trick if the spades misbehave.

Why not play then for spades 3-3 or Jx from the start? And a second heart trick looks remote, as surely the leader has QJ9x, assuming you have shown hearts, perhaps after game-forcing checkback on most tables.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#13 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 09:07

View Postlamford, on 2019-July-18, 07:24, said:

Why not play then for spades 3-3 or Jx from the start? And a second heart trick looks remote, as surely the leader has QJ9x, assuming you have shown hearts, perhaps after game-forcing checkback on most tables.


Because I don't know the rest of the shape, anything could be going on here, going up with the A seems to gain nothing and can easily lead to -2 for no good reason if the diamond switch is from 5 as I now only have 7 tricks, ducking doesn't cost.

Jxxx, QJ9x, xx, 3random is an interesting possible hand for W for example that shows why going up with the ace is bad.
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#14 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 09:30

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-July-18, 09:07, said:

Because I don't know the rest of the shape, anything could be going on here, going up with the A seems to gain nothing and can easily lead to -2 for no good reason if the diamond switch is from 5 as I now only have 7 tricks, ducking doesn't cost.

Jxxx, QJ9x, xx, 3random is an interesting possible hand for W for example that shows why going up with the ace is bad.

Similarly xxx QJ9x Kxx 3random is a possible hand for W that shows why running the ten is bad.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#15 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 10:01

View Postlamford, on 2019-July-18, 09:30, said:

Similarly xxx QJ9x Kxx 3random is a possible hand for W that shows why running the ten is bad.


I don't understand what you're getting at with this comment,it's IMPs, I'm making the contract. Which 10 ? I was replying to the "Take the A and switch to a diamond" arc
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#16 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 11:48

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-July-18, 10:01, said:

I don't understand what you're getting at with this comment,it's IMPs, I'm making the contract. Which 10 ? I was replying to the "Take the A and switch to a diamond" arc

In that line you would be in dummy . I was referring to the initial club lead, which you win (otherwise a diamond switch could beat you) and then if you run the ten of spades you could go down with spades 3-3.

I am still unsure what the right line is and much depends, believe it or not, on who has the two of diamonds!
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#17 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 12:16

View Postlamford, on 2019-July-18, 11:48, said:

In that line you would be in dummy . I was referring to the initial club lead, which you win (otherwise a diamond switch could beat you) and then if you run the ten of spades you could go down with spades 3-3.

I am still unsure what the right line is and much depends, believe it or not, on who has the two of diamonds!


OK, I made no comment on how I'd play on a club lead other than that I'd play the 10.
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#18 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 12:17

The full deal rotated for convenience again.

Seraphim and Hashmalim, EW for the winning team, defended well but to no avail. West led the six of diamonds and East unblocked the ten on the first round. Dummy won and played a heart, but East won and played a second heart. South ducked and West won to play a third heart won by South, while East pitched a club. South now advanced the ten of spades, but East ducked!! South cashed the queen of spades and ducked a diamond to East, West playing the nine. East exited with a club. South won, cashed the other high club (a dentist coup) and cashed the ace of diamonds and peered closely at West's card and was pleasantly surprised that it was the two. Now South exited with a diamond, resurrecting dummy's spade winners. "Well played but very unlucky for us", commented Hashmalim, "I was 4-3 on to have been dealt the two of diamonds, when our fine defence would have beaten the contract, as I would have unblocked the eight or seven under the ace of diamonds and let you win the three of diamonds.

"Your powers are waning", replied Ophanim, the declarer, "surely you could have swapped the seven and two of diamonds without anyone noticing?" "The last time someone tried that, he lost half his lifetime master points when it was discovered," replied EW in unison.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#19 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2019-July-18, 14:30

I do not see much of a problem after the heart lead.
Win the second heart with the king and run the spade ten
If the spade ten holds or gets covered, cash the spade queen and force an entry in diamonds.
If the spade ten looses, you can overtake the spade queen later.
That way I expect to make 4 or more spade tricks, at least one heart, and two tricks in each minor.
If the spade ten looses and East switches to clubs I may have to decide in the end between the diamond finesse or whether to end-play West with a heart for a diamond return.

Rainer Herrmann
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#20 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-July-20, 09:04

View Postrhm, on 2019-July-18, 14:30, said:

I do not see much of a problem after the heart lead.
Win the second heart with the king and run the spade ten
If the spade ten holds or gets covered, cash the spade queen and force an entry in diamonds.
If the spade ten looses, you can overtake the spade queen later.
That way I expect to make 4 or more spade tricks, at least one heart, and two tricks in each minor.
If the spade ten looses and East switches to clubs I may have to decide in the end between the diamond finesse or whether to end-play West with a heart for a diamond return.

Rainer Herrmann

If this line works, then the expert defender would have played a diamond at trick two, and then ducked the ten of spades with Jxxx.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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