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Play problem

#1 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 05:11

Hybrid pairs/teams scoring.



(edited) W leads 10, E takes your J with the A and plays 2 top clubs, plan the play.
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#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 06:48

What strength NT are opps playing? Is the 1 opening compatible with a weak NT type hand?
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 07:10


CyberYeti wriites 'Hybrid pairs/teams scoring. W leads 10, E takes the A and plays 2 top clubs, plan the play.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


OK, to get the ball rolling: in practice I would...
... Ruff the , enter dummy with J, and lead T, finessing..

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#4 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 07:23

View Postnige1, on 2019-June-10, 07:10, said:

... Ruff the , enter dummy with J, and lead T, finessing..
[/hv]


Yes this was my initial thought and I'm sure it would be the line that I would take at the table. But you need some luck if the heart finesse fails (and if East has the weak NT type, it has a good chance of failing).

As an alternative, I was thinking of eliminating the minor suits, then playing ace of hearts and throw the opps in with a heart ...
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#5 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 07:36

View Postnige1, on 2019-June-10, 07:10, said:


CyberYeti wriites 'Hybrid pairs/teams scoring. W leads 10, E takes the A and plays 2 top clubs, plan the play.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


OK, to get the ball rolling: in practice I would...
... Ruff the , enter dummy with J, and lead T, finessing..



If I could do that, it's a non problem. sorry I played the J at trick 1, if I hadn't, E I think would have ducked
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#6 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 07:38

View PostTramticket, on 2019-June-10, 06:48, said:

What strength NT are opps playing? Is the 1 opening compatible with a weak NT type hand?


Yes it is, but if he has a weak NT with less than 5 clubs you may well have heard from W.
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#7 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 07:50

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-10, 07:38, said:

Yes it is, but if he has a weak NT with less than 5 clubs you may well have heard from W.


Yes, good point.
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#8 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 08:00

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-10, 07:36, said:

If I could do that, it's a non problem. sorry I played the J at trick 1, if I hadn't, E I think would have ducked

OK :( more unimaginative tries.
... Ruff the , cash K, ruff a high, run T :)
or possibly safer...
... Run Q, intending to finesse s later.
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#9 User is offline   HardVector 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 09:16

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-10, 07:38, said:

Yes it is, but if he has a weak NT with less than 5 clubs you may well have heard from W.

I think what Tram is getting at, is if they are playing a weak NT, then the 1c has the potential to be a strong NT hand. If they play strong NT, then east having the 11-14 range goes up.

To me, this looks like a hand where either both major suit finesses work, or they both fail...unless east has a balanced 17 count. I'd take the spade finesse to find out what's going on there. If it fails, I play the heart ace to try and drop the K.
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#10 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 10:03

I wouldn't try the J at trick one but let it go around to KQ if East ducks. Then I would play myself. It seems easier to make progress towards a partial elimination that way whatever cards the opponents play next. Then you can make decisions about the major suits.
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#11 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 10:17

View PostHardVector, on 2019-June-10, 09:16, said:

If they play strong NT, then east having the 11-14 range goes up.


Yes but as Cyberyeti points out, if East has 11-14, west has 6-9 and at least four clubs (likely at least five). It seems that east is unlikely to have a weak NT hand. Given that they would open a strong NT it seems that east is unbalanced.

View Postnige1, on 2019-June-10, 08:00, said:

... Run Q, intending to finesse s later.


This feels like an illusion. West won’t cover the queen on the first round and east would also be likely to hold up on the first round of spades. So what do you do next?
- You might run the jack trying to pin east’s 10. But even if east has 10X you will get a spade ruff if the heart finesse fails to a singleton king. Or east might win the king and give east a ruff.
- If you play low to the ace you have a losing spade if the heart finesse fails

It looks like the spade position is largely an illusion and our best chance is the heart finesse. It is interesting that west did not lead his partner's suit, so I am guessing that west might have a club honour (the queen?). If west has a king that would get him up to five HCPs and he might find a bid. So the heart finesse is starting to look much better than a 50:50 shot.

So:
- I play the 4 from dummy at trick 1 in case east rises with the ace.
- Assuming east ducks, we need to find a safe way of getting to dummy. Three rounds of diamonds is risky if the suit is 6-2 and the safest route to dummy is to lead the spade 7 to the ace.
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#12 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 10:30

View PostTramticket, on 2019-June-10, 10:17, said:


- Assuming east ducks, we need to find a safe way of getting to dummy. Three rounds of diamonds is risky if the suit is 6-2 and the safest route to dummy is to lead the spade 7 to the ace.


It's far from the safest method, if the trump finesse loses, W with 2-2 in the majors now gets a spade ruff (or if 4-1 E does).

And if you do find E with 10x you don't have a spade loser and just play hearts from the top

Anything you do CAN go wrong, it's a question of what's the best chance
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#13 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-June-10, 10:39

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-10, 10:30, said:

Anything you do CAN go wrong, it's a question of what's the best chance


I agree with this. And it is complex to calculate the various odds mathematically.

But I am starting to think that the heart finesse is our best chance and attempting to combine chances might carry bigger risks than relying on the straight finesse.
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#14 User is offline   rathb 

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Posted 2019-June-11, 03:42

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-June-10, 05:11, said:

Hybrid pairs/teams scoring.



(edited) W leads 10, E takes your J with the A and plays 2 top clubs, plan the play.

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#15 User is offline   rathb 

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Posted 2019-June-11, 04:02

ace
q
j
10
9
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#16 User is offline   etienne19 

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Posted 2019-June-12, 03:49

Hi Yeti,
how is the weather near Katmandu ? Not too cold ???
IMHO you don't have to fear a spade ruff since it means you would be already down.
No losers in spade has a very weak prob (less than 10%) so back to the basics : finesse heart via the ace of spades.
That gives you a 50% chance, not so bad ! If you play for KH drop, that's only 26% ; so the gap cannot be compensated
by the no losers in spades opportunity.
Maybe I have missed something ?
Brg,
Etienne

PS : I can't understand the diamond lead !
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#17 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-June-12, 06:02

View Postetienne19, on 2019-June-12, 03:49, said:

Hi Yeti,
how is the weather near Katmandu ? Not too cold ???
IMHO you don't have to fear a spade ruff since it means you would be already down.
No losers in spade has a very weak prob (less than 10%) so back to the basics : finesse heart via the ace of spades.
That gives you a 50% chance, not so bad ! If you play for KH drop, that's only 26% ; so the gap cannot be compensated
by the no losers in spades opportunity.
Maybe I have missed something ?
Brg,
Etienne

PS : I can't understand the diamond lead !


You have to worry about the spade ruff due to the scoring system, you don't want to be -2 when opps are -1, this will probably cost you 1.5/12 VPs for the round.
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