So you manage to get to a 6 ♥ contract after south opens a strong NT and you get a trump lead; trumps are 3-1. In the play you can take the chance of 1 of 2 finesses in the minors working about 75% with a 25% chance of going down and a 25% chance of getting +1. Of course there is a stronger play to make the contract by eliminating ♥ and ♠ and playing Ace and King ♦.

If doubleton Q ♦ doesn't drop then give up the diamond and west is endplayed if the finesse was working originally and east is endplayed if they hold either the 10 or Q ♣ and the original ♦ finesse wasn't working. All together approx. a 90% chance of making the contract with a very small chance ~ 2% singleton or doubleton Q ♦ of having a chance for an overtrick.

So playing MP's which is the best percentage play for a top and which would you choose in the field. Do you think this one of the rare instances that it is correct theory- wise to play "safely" for the endplay?

I have not discussed playing against anyone in 6NT because you cannot practically play against anyone who bids 6NT for the board. Their most likely play on a heart lead is to try the 2 finesses which will either work or not. In either case they will score higher than you making 6NT or 6NT+1 or going down on the board when you would also have gone down.

Thanks in advance for the replies,

T

Thank you for the intriguing problem, Theokole.

Stephen Tu's conclusions seem correct

Although they confirm Justin Lall's advice, about eschewing safety-plays at match-points, I still found them surprising.

If the field is in 6♥, it appears that you should take 2 finesses.

If you suspect that several pairs will reach 6N, however, then you should eliminate ♠ and play ♦AK and another.

IMO, in real-life, a wheel sometimes comes off, leaving a few players in game, in which case, you should again consider the safety-play.