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Evaluate this Hand

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 05:48


Dealer South, Love All, IMPs converted to VPs, London Superleague
I had an interesting discussion with the London expert Phil King yesterday as to whether to open this hand a strong NT. I thought the K-R evaluation would be below 17, but Phil offered to buy at 17.5. In his match both dealers upgraded it. What do readers think?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#2 User is offline   etha 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 06:37

1NT for me.
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#3 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 06:46

I consider this to be too strong for a 15-17 NT

While this hand only contains 17 HCP, the combination of the 5 card heart suit and the 10 of hearts both boost the playing strength significantly.

(As I recall, KNR is intended for unbalanced hands, not evaluating NT openings)
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 06:53

View Posthrothgar, on 2019-March-14, 06:46, said:

I consider this to be too strong for a 15-17 NT

While this hand only contains 17 HCP, the combination of the 5 card heart suit and the 10 of hearts both boost the playing strength significantly.

(As I recall, KNR is intended for unbalanced hands, not evaluating NT openings)

https://bridgewinner...-could-upgrade/ suggests that balanced hands are also evaluated well. As does the link at the end of the article. You share the view of Phil King and Alex Hydes. I think that AQ doubleton and Jxx are major downsides. http://www.jeff-goldsmith.org/knr.txt is the basic algorithm.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#5 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 06:58

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-14, 06:53, said:

You share the view of Phil King and Alex Hydes.


Even a blind pig finds an acorn some times
(Is this the same Phil King that wrote "The King's Tale"?)

I'm afraid that I don't know who Alex Hydes is
Alderaan delenda est
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#6 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 07:21

Hi,

it may be relevant to know the available tools, if I have decided to open 1H,
similar, although to a lesser degreem similar, if we play some kind of puppet
stayman after a 1NT opening.
Similar if you regular upgrade your 14HCP counts into 15-17 NT opener is relevant,
if you do, you should most likely start upgrading out of the range as well.

I rarely downgrade / upgrade, but I also rarely open 1NT with a 5 card major.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: I am side stepping the question, but I dont think there is a lot wrong with
either treating this one as 15-17 or as slightly too strong for this range.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#7 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 07:31

View Posthrothgar, on 2019-March-14, 06:58, said:

Even a blind pig finds an acorn some times
(Is this the same Phil King that wrote "The King's Tale"?)

I'm afraid that I don't know who Alex Hydes is

Yes the same Phil. And Alex (who is "wank" on BBO) won the BAM at a Nationals, so his view is also to be respected.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#8 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 08:02

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-14, 06:53, said:

https://bridgewinner...-could-upgrade/ suggests that balanced hands are also evaluated well. As does the link at the end of the article. You share the view of Phil King and Alex Hydes. I think that AQ doubleton and Jxx are major downsides. http://www.jeff-goldsmith.org/knr.txt is the basic algorithm.

KNR is not such a good evaluator for notrump.
It is better for suit play. .
However, whether you open 1NT or one of a suit, you do not know whether you will end in notrump or in a suit contract.

The actual hand is borderline.
I agree with Phil's evaluation for notrump and with KNR if we end up in a trump contract.
Accordingly I would open with a 15-17 notrump and would not upgrade, though I do not think it is a big deal if somebody does.
Trouble with upsides and downsides is that people usually attach too much correction to these.
I think Jxx is a minor downside. AQ doubleton is not, because the AQ combination is a good one to start with.
So I think "major downside" is an overbid.

Rainer Herrmann
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#9 User is offline   billyjef 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 14:02

1NT whichever way I slice it. Not that it isn't very borderline. My rudimentary count and what I often rely on with borderline hands, Kleinman Points, adds up to 17. It "feels" less than a jump to 2NT after a temporizing 1H.
Jef Pratt
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#10 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 15:11

View Posthrothgar, on 2019-March-14, 06:46, said:

I consider this to be too strong for a 15-17 NT

While this hand only contains 17 HCP, the combination of the 5 card heart suit and the 10 of hearts both boost the playing strength significantly.

(As I recall, KNR is intended for unbalanced hands, not evaluating NT openings)


yes I agree totally with this
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 15:32

It's an interesting hand, it has reasons to devalue, but as little as xxxx, xxx(x), KJ10x(x), x will give at worst a 3-3 break shot at game, and the game that will make opposite very little is in hearts.

For that reason I open 1.
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#12 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2019-March-14, 15:45

1NT is ok, but 1 is better. Its better to bid a good suit than to bid 1NT here. 1NT is a underbid. 17 plus a good suit equals more than 1NT.
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#13 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 06:36

View PostLBengtsson, on 2019-March-14, 15:45, said:

1NT is ok, but 1 is better. Its better to bid a good suit than to bid 1NT here. 1NT is a underbid. 17 plus a good suit equals more than 1NT.

The K-R is only 16.1, so the fact that K-R is better for suit play suggests that 1NT is right. Partner had Qx xxxx Kxx KQxx. He did well to bid Stayman whereas 3NT would have failed on a spade lead through the Qx, whether spades had been 5-3 or 4-4, with the king over the queen. Opening 1 of course got to the heart game.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#14 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 06:41

View Postrhm, on 2019-March-14, 08:02, said:

I think Jxx is a minor downside. AQ doubleton is not, because the AQ combination is a good one to start with.
So I think "major downside" is an overbid.

Axx KQJTx AKx xx is far too good, at 18.3. Axx KQJTx AQ Jxx is a full 2.2 K-Rs less at 16.1. Both hands are 5-3-3-2, so your arguments can be challenged.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#15 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 06:43

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-15, 06:36, said:

The K-R is only 16.1, so the fact that K-R is better for suit play suggests that 1NT is right. Partner had Qx xxxx Kxx KQxx. He did well to bid Stayman whereas 3NT would have failed on a spade lead through the Qx, whether spades had been 5-3 or 4-4, with the king over the queen. Opening 1 of course got to the heart game.

Why should he not use Stayman? This is the normal action, he is 4432, has min values for the gameforce and the 1NT does not deny 4 hearts. Make it 4333 and than we can discuss the merrits of going via Stayman or not.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#16 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 08:42

lamford writes 'Dealer South, Love All, IMPs converted to VPs, London Superleague
I had an interesting discussion with the London expert Phil King yesterday as to whether to open this hand a strong NT. I thought the K-R evaluation would be below 17, but Phil offered to buy at 17.5. In his match both dealers upgraded it. What do readers think?'
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
FWIW, using WTC: Total winners = 6++ (1.5 (A), 1.5 (KQ), 2 (AQ, -doubleton = 1).
It's close but, after reading the comments, I think I'd open 1N

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#17 User is online   Tramticket 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 09:08

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-14, 05:48, said:

I thought the K-R evaluation would be below 17, but Phil offered to buy at 17.5. In his match both dealers upgraded it. What do readers think?


For me, this looks like a shade over 17 but not enough to upgrade.

In reality, of course, the choice will depend on the partnership attitude to upgrading / downgrading. The absolute valuation is less important than whether the hand fits within partner's range of expectation. It seems that the modern trend is to upgrade aggressively and never downgrade. If this is the partnership's philosophy, then I would expect this hand to fall within (or close to) the range of partner's expectation.
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#18 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2019-March-15, 12:20

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2019-March-15, 06:43, said:

Why should he not use Stayman? This is the normal action, he is 4432, has min values for the gameforce and the 1NT does not deny 4 hearts. Make it 4333 and than we can discuss the merrits of going via Stayman or not.

I think 4-4-3-2 with Hx is very close, and if you do a simulation of that hand, even knowing partner had four hearts it is close. Two good players just raised to 3NT opposite a strong NT.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason. - barmar
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#19 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2019-March-19, 06:13

View Postrhm, on 2019-March-14, 08:02, said:

I think Jxx is a minor downside. AQ doubleton is not, because the AQ combination is a good one to start with.
So I think "major downside" is an overbid.

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-15, 06:41, said:

Axx KQJTx AKx xx is far too good, at 18.3. Axx KQJTx AQ Jxx is a full 2.2 K-Rs less at 16.1. Both hands are 5-3-3-2, so your arguments can be challenged.

Of course my arguments can (and should be) challenged. ;)
When I am uncertain I use
http://bridge.thomas...XX,KQJTX,AQ,JXX
as a second opinion.

According to this site K & R for the original hand is not 16.1 but 16.45.
Sure your second hand is better, but again 1.85 points better, it is at best only better for suit play not for notrumps.
Even for suit play Thomas Andrews double dummy analyzer considers the second hand only 0.32 tricks better for suit play, which suggests 1.85 points difference is too much.
For notrump play your second hand increases on average only by 0.16 tricks, which translates to about 0.3 more points for notrump play.
See what I mean when I observed "Trouble with upsides and downsides is that people usually attach too much correction to these."

However, I agree with you that the second hand clearly should be upgraded, while the actual hand is borderline.

View Postlamford, on 2019-March-15, 06:36, said:

Partner had Qx xxxx Kxx KQxx

I admit, it would never occur to me to use Stayman on this hand. I bid 3NT and go down on a spade lead, when the king is wrong.

Rainer Herrmann
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#20 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2019-March-19, 06:56

This is far too strong for 1NT for me. For me, a five card suit is a reason to upgrade, unless it is really terrible. But look at this hand! The Q, J and T have the same value as the K. Effectively, I have four kings of hearts. I am not saying that they are worth 4x3 = 12 HCPs, but they are definitely worth more than 6.

Rik
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