BBO Discussion Forums: When will Brexit Happen - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 5 Pages +
  • « First
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

When will Brexit Happen

Poll: When will Brexit Happen (9 member(s) have cast votes)

What's your prediction?

  1. Brexit will happen on March 29, 2019 without a deal. (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Brexit will happen on March 29, 2019 with a deal. (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. Brexit will be delayed until later in 2019. (1 votes [11.11%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.11%

  4. Brexit will be delayed until 2020 or beyond. (4 votes [44.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 44.44%

  5. Brexit will be canceled completely. (4 votes [44.44%])

    Percentage of vote: 44.44%

  6. Something else (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#81 User is offline   cherdano 

  • 5555
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,516
  • Joined: 2003-September-04
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2019-April-09, 10:37

I think the Brexit votes in parliament might be Arrow's impossibility theorem in action. I'll have to think about the numbers more carefully, but for now I'll note the following: if we restricted parliament to the three options of
- pass a amended deal with the stated goal of a customs union ("soft brexit"),
- pass May's deal as it is,
- crash out without a deal,
and you asked every MP to rank their preference in order, you'd easily get votes for all six possibilities.

I think you might get similar results with other examples of three options (say, revoke article 50/soft Brexit/May Brexit).
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
2

#82 User is offline   helene_t 

  • The Abbess
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 17,068
  • Joined: 2004-April-22
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:UK

Posted 2019-April-09, 15:51

View Postcherdano, on 2019-April-09, 10:37, said:

I think the Brexit votes in parliament might be Arrow's impossibility theorem in action. I'll have to think about the numbers more carefully, but for now I'll note the following: if we restricted parliament to the three options of
- pass a amended deal with the stated goal of a customs union ("soft brexit"),
- pass May's deal as it is,
- crash out without a deal,
and you asked every MP to rank their preference in order, you'd easily get votes for all six possibilities.

I think you might get similar results with other examples of three options (say, revoke article 50/soft Brexit/May Brexit).


If the absolute majority rule was applied we would probably find that soft brexit wins from all the other alternatives. If that's the case, it wouldn't be impossible (in Arrow's sense) to make a decision that is the consensus choice. But it could still be impossible for other reasons. I expect that some MPs want one thing but want something else to appear from their voting record. For example, it could be a strategy to vote against everything (including "no deal") to make sure that "no deal" happens, but that it is someone else's fault.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
0

#83 User is online   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,833
  • Joined: 2008-September-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2019-April-09, 18:29

I'm changing my vote to any of the last 4 choices.
0

#84 User is offline   y66 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,496
  • Joined: 2006-February-24

Posted 2019-April-09, 19:24

Partha Dasgupta, the Frank Ramsey Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Cambridge, proposed in February that Parliament should scrap its “up or down” voting system, which is unable to cope with situations when there are three or more options, and use Condorcet's method to ask each MP to submit a ballot that allows him or her to pick both a first choice and then a second choice if the first is not available. Professor Dasgupta grants that a flaw of the Arrow Theorem type could arise but thinks it is highly unlikely. He said he and Eric Maskin have demonstrated formally that the probability a flaw of the Arrow Theorem type will arise under Condorcet’s method is lower than that under any other voting system, adding "Brexit has been an extraordinarily divisive issue for the UK, and no option will satisfy everyone. However, parliament can break the current stalemate and produce a truly democratic outcome if the House of Commons adopts Condorcet voting."
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
0

#85 User is offline   PeterAlan 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 614
  • Joined: 2010-May-03
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2019-April-11, 18:33

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-March-29, 14:49, said:

You can appeal a decision of the nation's highest court to the European court, and some of the judgments it comes up with are extremely odd

This is often misrepresented: the [European] Court of Justice is only the final court in matters of European Union law; its jurisdiction does not extend to domestic law in general.
1

#86 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,899
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2019-April-12, 03:59

View PostPeterAlan, on 2019-April-11, 18:33, said:

This is often misrepresented: the [European] Court of Justice is only the final court in matters of European Union law; its jurisdiction does not extend to domestic law in general.


Most of the cases are that national law is incompatible with EU law.
0

#87 User is offline   PeterAlan 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 614
  • Joined: 2010-May-03
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2019-April-12, 20:50

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-March-29, 14:49, said:

You can appeal a decision of the nation's highest court to the European court, and some of the judgments it comes up with are extremely odd

Moreover, it is incorrect to say that "you can appeal a decision ...": cases for the Court of Justice have to be referred by the relevant national court (or EU institution), not by an individual appellant.

The UK has a good record in relation to cases with the Court of Justice, both in the number of referrals (relatively low) and in terms of their resolution: for example, see Institute for Government's report.

Most of the cases that the press and some politicians highlight for criticism have nothing whatsoever to do with the [European] Court of Justice, the one that is an European Union institution; instead, they are judgments of the entirely separate European Court of Human Rights [ECHR] in Strasbourg, which is concerned with alleged violations of the European Convention on Human Rights. This Convention (drafted 1950; came into effect 1953) was created under the auspices of the Council of Europe (established 1949), which both pre-dates and is entirely separate from the European Union and its predecessors. (Incidentally, the United Kingdom played a leading role both in the establishment of the Council of Europe - it was created by the Treaty of London - and in drafting and promulgating the Convention on Human Rights.) Again, the UK has a good record at this Court too, both in the number of referrals and in their outcomes.

UK courts are required under the Human Rights Act to take account of ECHR judgments, but they are not bound by them.

Leaving the EU (if it happens) would not affect the UK's obligations under this Convention, and in particular would not remove us from the ECHR.

I focused initially on the Court of Justice, since your remark was in response to a question about the "EU judicial body" and the "EU charter", but I felt your response was potentially misleading. It has suited mendacious politicians and others to conflate the two entirely separate and different Courts, and to spin ECHR judgments with which they take issue as reasons for leaving the EU: please do not add to this confusion.
4

  • 5 Pages +
  • « First
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users