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Lucky lead Mea culpa

Poll: Lucky lead (3 member(s) have cast votes)

What next, after five rounds of spades?

  1. Another spade (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. Ace of hearts (2 votes [66.67%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 66.67%

  3. Four of hearts (1 votes [33.33%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  4. Something else (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 19:50


Latest stupidity :(
In a local league match (aggregate) -- about 3 hours ago.
Against 6 by South, LHO leads T won by J.
On declarer's AK76
-- LHO discards 2 5 4 2.
-- RHO follows twice then discards 8 6
UDCA
What now?

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#2 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2019-February-13, 03:07

Essentially you have to tell if hearts are breaking or not. West did have the short spades, and play the C5 then the C4 possibly suit-preference high. Perhaps he holds e.g. T J963 Q982 K542, where even a singleton trump lead looks the most appealing of that ugly lot. But it's far from clear, as something like T J93 Q982 KJ542 would have the same lead issue and likely discard the same way.

You can actually pick up J963 with W thanks to the power of the 5 and the 4 :). Lead the 8, if 9 then K (East shows out), DA and then run the 5. And hell, this can't go wrong if East has them either, as W will show out when you lead the 8. The challenge is backing your judgement / guess if you lead the 8 and W follows small. I'm not sure I would (unless playing for a swing, perhaps).

ahydra
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#3 User is offline   HardVector 

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Posted 2019-February-14, 17:53

You are only worried about a 4-0 heart break. I will be shocked if west had a singleton spade and a void in hearts, so I'd cater to east having the void.
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#4 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2019-February-15, 17:10

When at trick 2 you find that LHO had only 1 trump and RHO had 3, LHO has 12 vacant places and RHO only 10. So the odds (12/10) favor LHO having 4 , if anyone does.
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