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When your hand evaluation goes wrong

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 06:21

Dear all

You have this hand as south and the following auction. Do you bid 3 or 4 and why. I reasoned that I didn't have enough points, trumps or few enough losers to bid straight to 4 and bid an invite which was passed. Any thoughts please. Is it just one of those hands which could have gone either way or did I miss something. North's bid is described as 6-10 points (including distribution) with 3+ trumps. I evaluated my hand as 13 HCPs and 15 distributional (note Pavlicek and KR give it around 16) which seemed like an invite to me???

IMPs in this case but could be MPs

regards P

EDIT Please ignore this. I cant add up. If I had calculated losers correctly I would have bid 4 :( Sadly I cant delete this


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#2 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 06:30

3 is not an invite, merely a competitive effort. If you play double as an invite here, I think it's close between that and 4.

If partner can have anywhere between Jxx, Qxx, QJxx, Jxx where you haven't made 2 yet and AJxx, xxx, xxxx, Kx you have a problem, the point to note is the one I made above, that 3 is not an invite and partner will only bid 4 with something exceptional.
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#3 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 07:16

The single most important this to consider is that you have the stiff A in a suit that the opponents have bid and raised to the three level. The opps rate to have a 9 card fit in Hearts and I would expect that they have a bunch of wasted heart honors.
Balanced against this, you're probably looking at a 4-1 trump break with the tap going into the long hand and clubs don't rate to be breaking either.

If partner had been able to show me a 4 card mixed raise or some such, I'd try for game.
As is, I am bidding 3!S
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 13:16

As the other said, 3S is purely competitive and doesn’t ask for partner’s cooperation. You could be bidding this to honor a 6th trump, a 2-suited hand with honor concentration, etc. The only available space you have is X to invite, which is not penalty obviously.

Your loser count is 5 but the hand lacks intermediaries and LHO rates to have some kind of C opposition implied by his X. Trumps could be breaking 4-1 as partner with 4 could have bid 3 directly.

I therefore think 3S is enough and should they bid 4H on that, you should respect it too. I wouldn’t blame partner to invite, though, as placed after doubler, he should upgrade his potential minor AKs, trump honors, and downgrade H honors (AJ S and a minor K will be very good cards for 4S). Minor QJs are wasted in D but golden in C, but it is hard to guess!
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#5 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 17:39

Thanks everyone

It did make 5 in this case hence my disappointment but I know, other than losers, my hand wasn't really strong enough on most assessment. Appreciate the tips on what else to look for.

It was bid approximately one third to game, a half to three S and the balance other outcomes.
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#6 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 17:47

View Postthepossum, on 2019-February-12, 17:39, said:

Thanks everyone

It did make 5 in this case hence my disappointment but I know, other than losers, my hand wasn't really strong enough on most assessment. Appreciate the tips on what else to look for.

It was bid approximately one third to game, a half to three S and the balance other outcomes.


Can you show the other hand?
It would be interesting to see why a single raise produced so many tricks.
(My guess is that you had a double fit or some such)
Alderaan delenda est
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#7 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2019-February-12, 18:14

Hi Hrothgar

It was a nice fit and an extra trump. The breaks were friendly and I was able to establish two small clubs. I dont know if you would regard North's hand as exceptional enough to raise to game. I think its borderline too. I was also able to finesse the K diamonds so not many losers

regards P


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#8 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2019-February-13, 04:31

With robot agreements (I don't know what X over 3 would be) this is an awkward hand. We split the 2 bid by using 1-(X)-1N as a good raise to 2 and have a game try double available so I think we get there. It's a decent game, things couldn't have been much friendlier, trumps 2-2 is the only thing you didn't get.
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#9 User is offline   fromageGB 

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Posted 2019-February-13, 05:35

One way that might help is to think of a straight uninterrupted 1 2. With this, you look at the power of your hand - more than a minimum, all aces and kings, a brilliant Q, a 5xx5 shape which is always better than a 5233, and you'd probably make a game try. Now consider the actual sequence, and add on the fact that you have a singleton in their suit, and the bidding indicates partner will not have wasted values there. I'd be torn between making an invitation, and bidding game. If X as invitation is not part of robot's system (or if I didn't know for sure) I'd bid 4.

Yes you need to have the agreement that this 2 is a good raise to 2 (which you said it was), because you would not do this if 2 could be weaker. For method, I prefer transfers over their overcall or double, so my human partner would respond 2, but robot lovers have no choice. I don't know how the robot would handle a weaker raise to 2, perhaps it just passes.
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#10 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2019-February-13, 07:49

This is IMPS if you imagine what you need to make 4s you will see all p needs is Jxx xxx xxxx KQx this is not too much to ask from a 2s bid. Bid 4s. P can certainly have a dog and 4 has no play but the backs of the cards coupled with the opps bidding has left us with no exploration room. MP you might easily get some MP just for bidding 3 and making 4 or going down less than 4s bidders. Going down in 4s is unlikely to be a disaster at IMPS so have no fear.
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