[pigpenz]

like i said go to Pavliceks site and fill in the holes and you will see the percentages your self

West has shown up with
1-5-3-1 (10 known cards)

East has shown up with
2-3-3 -1 (9 know cards)

this is at the point we have played to and played the ♣ honor in dummy.
The percentages are going to always be the same.

Now if we are going to play against them then they will never seem to work.

Now why would such a good player like Barry Crane have such silly rules?
To take the frustration out of it.....look at us we are discussing the probabilities of where the Q♣ is when we know the percentages favor it being with East 70% of the time

[kenberg]

beatrix45, on May 10 2005, 11:34 PM, said:

I don't see how you can isolate a diamond or a heart threat, so squeeze isn't possible absent a suicidal blunder by opponents.

No squeeze but some pseudos are not so easy to cope with. Give yourself as LHO a plausibkle hand:

x
AKJxxx
Qxxx
Qxx

After you lead a heart and switch to a trump declarer ruffs his two remaining hearts and runs his remaining four spades, never touching diamonds. As he leads his last spade you hold

Qxx
Qxx


In dummy you see
AKx
Axx

If declarer holds
Jxx
Kx (he has five cards, since he led just led a spade)
you must hold the diamond and pitch the club.

With his actual holding you must hold the club and pitch the diamond.


Partner has followed to two of the trumps and pitched a heart and a diamond on two more trump leads but has not yet played to this trick. I agree that you, as LHO, can work this out, or at least you can make the likely guess that declarer holds clubs not diamonds. If declarer held Jxx in diamonds then your partner would have held 2-3-3-5 originally and would presumably have thrown a club not a diamond on the run of the trump. (Also, if declarer held Jxx in diamonds he probably would have pitched a diamond from the dummy on his fourth spade hoping to run a trump squeeze against a defender holding four or more clubs and the guarded Q of diamonds, but that's a bit obscure.) My claim is that this thinking will take a noticeable amount of time, at least for most opponents. It's clear that declarer has eleven tricks (two ruffs, five trump, and presumably AK in both minors) so this will be defeated if and only if defenders score a minor Queen. Almost certainly a LHO holding Qxx Qxx will review the situation in his head before he makes his pitch. However LHO will have no such problem if he holds
Qxxx
xx

It is on this basis I expect to judge whether to play for the drop or run the Jack.

Of course if LHO does not hold the Queen of diamonds he also has no problem. I'll still be playing for the drop. It may drop.

If my prediction that LHO will stop for thought if he holds both minor queens and will not stop for thought otherwise is correct, then this method works whenever clubs are 2-2 and it works whenever LHO holds both minor Queens regardless of whether clubs are 2-2 or 3-1. It loses if LHO holds Qxx in clubs and does not hold the Queen of diamonds.

Ken

[kenberg]

Oops. In the parenthetical part I meant 3 or more clubs, not 4 or more clubs.

[kenberg]

kenberg, on May 11 2005, 10:13 AM, said:

Oops. In the parenthetical part I meant 3 or more clubs, not 4 or more clubs.

Good grief, I did make an error, but not here. If declarer has Jxx then LHO can place his pard with 2-4-3-4 distribution not my claimed 2-3-3-5. He can still work out this isn't the case, but less easily.

I will now stop conversing with myself before I am hauled away in an ambulance.