BBO Discussion Forums: Get a head start - the play - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Get a head start - the play

#1 User is offline   pescetom 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,204
  • Joined: 2014-February-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Italy

Posted 2019-February-04, 04:56

This got lost in the noise but is an interesting hand to play, so try again here.

IMPs. Sitting in West, you bid unopposed to 6.



The lead is Q. How do you plan to proceed?

Say you cover with the Ace and then pull trumps in three rounds, with South discarding two small clubs. What now?
0

#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,070
  • Joined: 2009-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Kent (Near London)

Posted 2019-February-04, 08:22

View Postpescetom, on 2019-February-04, 04:56, said:

Say you cover with the Ace and then pull trumps in three rounds, with South discarding two small clubs. What now?


You can play to bring the Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.
0

#3 User is online   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,899
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2019-February-04, 08:46

View PostTramticket, on 2019-February-04, 08:22, said:

You can play to bring the Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.


Or play AK and a ruff, and if this doesn't bring the spade down take the ruffing club finesse and hope it works and the 10 drops (the 2 club pitches could easily be from xxxxx).

Edit: this is all kinds of wrong, if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant
0

#4 User is offline   Tramticket 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,070
  • Joined: 2009-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Kent (Near London)

Posted 2019-February-04, 09:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant


Yes - don't need the long spade if the finesse works. Good spot.
0

#5 User is online   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,899
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2019-February-04, 09:19

View PostTramticket, on 2019-February-04, 09:01, said:

Yes - don't need the long spade if the finesse works. Good spot.


The 5th spade is useful only in that you can use it to pitch 9 for the overtrick if spades are 4-3 onside, the ruffing club finesse works but the 10 wasn't dropping
0

#6 User is offline   pescetom 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,204
  • Joined: 2014-February-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Italy

Posted 2019-February-04, 15:34

View PostTramticket, on 2019-February-04, 08:22, said:

You can play to bring the Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.

The others playing diamonds rather than NT all went down, so I imagine they chose one of these lines.

At the table, I was trying to figure out what Q from N might mean, with AT5 in dummy. I imagined she had at least the J too and more probably 5 cards than 4, which put the K probably second in S along with a stack of black cards. So when S pitched 2 clubs I figured it might be from Txxxx and in any case suggested the Q was being protected.

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

Or play AK and a ruff, and if this doesn't bring the spade down take the ruffing club finesse and hope it works and the 10 drops (the 2 club pitches could easily be from xxxxx).

That was my reasoning, and it worked.

View PostCyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

Edit: this is all kinds of wrong, if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant

Not sure it was wrong at all.

Of course if South had discarded 2 spades it would all have been simpler and we gain an overtrick.

If he was more wily and discarded a spade and a club it gets more intricate, but with attentive play it comes home the same.
0

#7 User is offline   pescetom 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,204
  • Joined: 2014-February-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Italy

Posted 2019-February-04, 15:39

Here's the full hand:


0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users