[pescetom]

This got lost in the noise but is an interesting hand to play, so try again here.

IMPs. Sitting in West, you bid unopposed to 6♦.

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The lead is Q♥. How do you plan to proceed?

Say you cover with the Ace and then pull trumps in three rounds, with South discarding two small clubs. What now?

[Tramticket]

pescetom, on 2019-February-04, 04:56, said:

Say you cover with the Ace and then pull trumps in three rounds, with South discarding two small clubs. What now?

You can play to bring the ♠Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play ♠AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2019-February-04, 08:22, said:

You can play to bring the ♠Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play ♠AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.

Or play ♠AK and a ruff, and if this doesn't bring the spade down take the ruffing club finesse and hope it works and the 10 drops (the 2 club pitches could easily be from xxxxx).

Edit: this is all kinds of wrong, if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant

[Tramticket]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant

Yes - don't need the long spade if the finesse works. Good spot.

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2019-February-04, 09:01, said:

Yes - don't need the long spade if the finesse works. Good spot.

The 5th spade is useful only in that you can use it to pitch 9♣ for the overtrick if spades are 4-3 onside, the ruffing club finesse works but the ♣10 wasn't dropping

[pescetom]

Tramticket, on 2019-February-04, 08:22, said:

You can play to bring the ♠Q down in three rounds (e.g. ace of spades king of spades and ruff a spade). Quick calculation gives this as about 36%

Or you can finesse on the first round of spades and hope for any 4-3 spade break. Quick calculation gives this as about 31%

Or you can play ♠AK and if the queen doesn't drop, you take a club finesse and try to drop the king in three rounds. I haven't calculated, but seems worse.

The others playing diamonds rather than NT all went down, so I imagine they chose one of these lines.

At the table, I was trying to figure out what Q♥ from N might mean, with AT5 in dummy. I imagined she had at least the J too and more probably 5 cards than 4, which put the K probably second in S along with a stack of black cards. So when S pitched 2 clubs I figured it might be from Txxxx and in any case suggested the Q♠ was being protected.

Cyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

Or play ♠AK and a ruff, and if this doesn't bring the spade down take the ruffing club finesse and hope it works and the 10 drops (the 2 club pitches could easily be from xxxxx).

That was my reasoning, and it worked.

Cyberyeti, on 2019-February-04, 08:46, said:

Edit: this is all kinds of wrong, if the spade finesse works, both losing hearts go away, you give up a club and ruff one, for a guaranteed 12 tricks, the spade break is irrelevant

Not sure it was wrong at all.

Of course if South had discarded 2 spades it would all have been simpler and we gain an overtrick.

If he was more wily and discarded a spade and a club it gets more intricate, but with attentive play it comes home the same.

[pescetom]

Here's the full hand:

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