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November hand

#1 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2018-November-07, 18:01



West leads the A, gets an encouraging 3 from East and continues with the 9 to East's king. East then shifts to the 9.

Your plan?

Would be fun to hear from non-experts first.
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#2 User is offline   DozyDom 

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Posted 2018-November-07, 18:23

Hum, it's late over here and I've had a few drinks... but aren't we going down on a 4-0 split however we play it? And making if it's a 3-1 split? At least in my current state of mind I'm just gonna let the 9 come round to my ATx on table. Cash the top hearts. Sit back, relax, and doze off while partner points out the obvious line for an overtrick which I haven't noticed.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-November-07, 18:49

Spoiler

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#4 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2018-November-07, 18:59

deleted: I missed the double, so thought the 'right' line was going to be very difficult for a non-expert...the double, imo, makes it a lot easier, tho I think an expert 'in the zone' would get it right without the double.

Then I missed the part asking more advanced players not to post right away....I am very sorry
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#5 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 02:50

Spoiler

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#6 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 02:56

Spoiler

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#7 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 08:59

View PostTramticket, on 2018-November-08, 02:50, said:

Spoiler


I don’t think your line works. You’ve ruffed too many spades, so are reduced to a stiff A at the stage where you say you lead another trump


The key is to reduce to A9 of trump in hand, with 8xx in dummy, in a 3 card endgame with S on lead. I won’t provide what I think is the line until later. Hope this hint helps.
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#8 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 11:17

Spoiler

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#9 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 11:58

View Postmikeh, on 2018-November-08, 08:59, said:

I don’t think your line works. You’ve ruffed too many spades, so are reduced to a stiff A at the stage where you say you lead another trump


The key is to reduce to A9 of trump in hand, with 8xx in dummy, in a 3 card endgame with S on lead. I won’t provide what I think is the line until later. Hope this hint helps.


Thanks. Yes, got it. :)

(I'm on a tablet at the moment, so can't hide answer).
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#10 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 12:15

View Postnige1, on 2018-November-08, 11:17, said:

Spoiler


There are a couple of sequences, amounting to the same thing, that get you to the desired end position. Both depend on RHO being 5=0=71, and I am not entirely convinced that rho would not/should not, bid 4S over 4H with that shape. I am very much of the view that West ought not to be doubling unless it is at mps or he has little respect for his opps. In fact, I think that this hand would be made by many good players, if on their game, even without the double. Winning the club cheaply in dummy (and it is fine to win in hand as well), crossing to the spade, and leading a heart, intending to cover whatever LHO plays, is pretty simple at an expert level, even at mps, and clear at imps. The only time it fails is when RHO wins and gives LHO a club ruff. Firstly, the 9 of clubs is an unusual play from any 4 card holding, secondly, RHO would, on that auction, have at most 1 spade, which is (a) improbable given LHO's pass over 1H and (b) likely to engender a spade switch, not a club. Meanwhile, the delayed preempt pretty clearly suggests at least 4 spades, hence 4-0 trump are relatively probable, compared to the very low a priori odds of a 4-0 split.



Good hand.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 13:14

I'd have played it slightly differently.

Win the club in hand, A, club to 10, spade ruff, club to A, spade ruff, top club and W is now down to trumps only, and the 5th club fixes him, this also works if he has a club less and a spade more, you lead the 4th club, if he pitches the spade you're in the same place, ruff low is no issue, ruff high, you overruff, ruff a 3rd spade and play the 5th club.
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#12 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 13:23

View PostCyberyeti, on 2018-November-08, 13:14, said:

I'd have played it slightly differently.

Win the club in hand, A, club to 10, spade ruff, club to A, spade ruff, top club and W is now down to trumps only, and the 5th club fixes him, this also works if he has a club less and a spade more, you lead the 4th club, if he pitches the spade you're in the same place, ruff low is no issue, ruff high, you overruff, ruff a 3rd spade and play the 5th club.

The problem with this is that it is remotely possible, although very unlikely, that RHO has a trump and will ruff that second round of clubs, and down you go in a cold contract. Now, LHO should not be doubling with, say, KQxx QJ10 Ax Jxxx, and RHO maybe shouldn't be passing then bidding on xxxx x KJ10xxxx x but there is no upside to your line compared to the line of leading a low heart towards dummy early. When one line is 'almost' equivalent to another, but has an additional, if remote, risk attached, it is the wrong line.
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#13 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 13:28

View Postmikeh, on 2018-November-08, 13:23, said:

The problem with this is that it is remotely possible, although very unlikely, that RHO has a trump and will ruff that second round of clubs, and down you go in a cold contract. Now, LHO should not be doubling with, say, KQxx QJ10 Ax Jxxx, and RHO maybe shouldn't be passing then bidding on xxxx x KJ10xxxx x but there is no upside to your line compared to the line of leading a low heart towards dummy early. When one line is 'almost' equivalent to another, but has an additional, if remote, risk attached, it is the wrong line.


OK, it can go down when you make if he has a trump and it's the 7 (the 10 both go down in a cold contract that every beginner makes).
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#14 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 13:29

View Postmikeh, on 2018-November-08, 13:23, said:

but there is no upside to your line compared to the line of leading a low heart towards dummy early.

Isn't the upside that you make the contract if RHO has 4 spades? That is, if you are 100% sure West has all of the trumps, Cyberyeti's line guarantees the contract, while playing a low heart will go down whenever RHO has 4 spades.

So it comes down to how often you think RHO will have a trump vs how often they will have 4 spades and no trump.
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#15 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 13:40

I've been grosvenored on a hand like this with a most excellent line of play only to find that the trumps split 2-2. :unsure: :blink:
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#16 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 14:01

One side note - if you do play a low heart towards dummy, and West plays the 7, would it be better to jump up with the King than cover? Would 7 from QJT7 ever remotely be the correct play from West?

[edit] Nevermind, I get mike's point now - if you cover and lose, you still make the contract, so it doesn't really matter.
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#17 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 14:49

View PostCyberyeti, on 2018-November-08, 13:28, said:

OK, it can go down when you make if he has a trump and it's the 7 (the 10 both go down in a cold contract that every beginner makes).

How does my line go down when RHO has any trump, other than all 4? If RHO wins his stiff trump, which by definition has to be an honour, since if RHO has the 7, LHO will have played an honour and I will have won the King, I'm save unless he has 7 diamonds and 4 clubs, giving LHO at least 7 spades, and values, and yet he passed over 1H. Zero chance.
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#18 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 14:57



Cyberyeti's line is clever
Although when RHO is 4072, he can defeat the contract with a 3rd round of -- a bit double-dummy.

If you're willing to bet the house on LHO holding all 4 trumps, then you can start as above (press Next)

-- If RHO follows to the 2nd club, then continue with Cyberyeti's line.

-- If RHO shows out on the 2nd club, then Cyberyeti's line reverts to MikeH's line.

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#19 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2018-November-08, 17:08

View Postnige1, on 2018-November-08, 14:57, said:



Cyberyeti's line is clever
Although when RHO is 4072, he can defeat the contract with a 3rd round of -- a bit double-dummy.

If you're willing to bet the house on LHO holding all 4 trumps, then you can start as above (press Next)

-- If RHO follows to the 2nd club, then continue with Cyberyeti's line.

-- If RHO shows out on the 2nd club, then Cyberyeti's line reverts to MikeH's line.


This was also my line at the table. Unfortunately, I was inhabiting the wrong universe:


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