[ahydra]

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IMPs (Swiss). Nothing unusual about the meanings of calls so far.

ahydra

[FelicityR]

Horrible! Partner using a double in the balancing position. How strong is he/she? Full strength or just balancing? Who's to know at the point? I'd rather bid 3♠ with one guaranteed trick in my hand against 3♦x because if partner has points, 3♠ will be ok, and if partner has doubled in 4th vulnerable vs. vulnerable without points he will have distribution. The devil vs. the deep blue sea scenario

[nullve]

Pass (LoTT)

[Cyberyeti]

 nullve, on 2018-July-01, 04:00, said:

Pass (LoTT)

You can't use LoTT with any degree of accuracy here.

My partner always has KJxxx, AKQJ, void, xxxx or similar where if I pass 3♦X and then consider 4♠, one makes and the other is -1 but I don't know which is which.

[gszes]

p either has the nuts OR they have listened to the bidding and their hand has improved expecting most of the opp power (outside dia) to be with east. Since my only real alternative is 3s (if I bid 4s I am pretty sure partner will never balance again) it seems setting 3d 1 or 2 will often be a reasonable to significant gain. I have reasonable expectation of a club ruff (or an uppercut) so 2 trump tricks are reasonable and I have almost zero entries (in a spade contract) to lead up to partners honors. In a dia contract I have the opening lead and any trump tricks I can win. I agree this is hardly fool proof (see cyberyeti) but that is a mighty small target to be worried about. I would expect to set this close to 80% of the time so at MP its almost an easy choice but at IMPS when you are wrong it can be a HUGE problem. Pass is not for those with a weak stomach and I have a lot of sympathy for 3s. Pass = 7.5 3s = 6

[TylerE]

I like sitting in these sort of situations but A9xx is NOT enough with nothing else going for the hand.

[dsLawsd]

4 Spades. Partner at Imps should be short in diamonds with sound majors. Yea it might go down but we should (better!) have no wasted values. I've been wrong before...

[gordontd]

3S seems normal.

[P_Marlowe]

3S, ..., you may convince me, that 3NT is better.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Cyberyeti]

 P_Marlowe, on 2018-July-02, 02:24, said:

3S, ..., you may convince me, that 3NT is better.

With kind regards
Marlowe

Partner always has a 4414 11 if I bid 3N.

[nullve]

 Cyberyeti, on 2018-July-01, 04:27, said:

You can't use LoTT with any degree of accuracy here.

My partner always has KJxxx, AKQJ, void, xxxx or similar where if I pass 3♦X and then consider 4♠, one makes and the other is -1 but I don't know which is which.

 Cyberyeti, on 2018-July-02, 03:56, said:

Partner always has a 4414 11 if I bid 3N.

I suppose partner always has a 3424 14-count if you bid 3♠?

[Cyberyeti]

 nullve, on 2018-July-02, 07:00, said:

I suppose partner always has a 3424 14-count if you bid 3♠?

At least that's not dialling a stupid score, I'll have plenty of company.

[msjennifer]

 TylerE, on 2018-July-01, 17:46, said:

I like sitting in these sort of situations but A9xx is NOT enough with nothing else going for the hand.

I fully agree.

[miamijd]

In MPs, you might risk a pass if you want to swing a board. At MPs, however, you just have to beat 3D more than 50% of the time for pass to be right. Close decision.

But this problem specified IMPs. In IMPs, passing is very much against the odds.

If partner has a moose, you will likely beat 3DX and make 4S. Not a huge difference at IMPs. Otherwise, 3D and 3S are both going to be close. Let's say the opposing N/S at the other table bids a normal 3S:

Both make: You go -670 at your table and -140 at the other: Lose 13 instead of a push if you bid 3S.

3S makes but 3D is off one: You score +200 at your table and -140 at the other: Win 2 instead of the push you get for bidding 3S.

3S is off one but 3D makes: You go -670 at your table and +100 at the other: Lose 11 instead of the push you get for bidding 3S.

Both contracts are off one: You go +200 and +100: Win 7 instead of a push.

At IMPs, for pass to be right, you need to be danged sure you are beating 3D. With one defensive trick, I'm not sure of that at all, so I can't pass (with AT9x of diamonds, I would consider a pass).

Cheers,
Mike

[TylerE]

 miamijd, on 2018-July-02, 11:38, said:

At IMPs, for pass to be right, you need to be danged sure you are beating 3D.
Cheers,
Mike

I do think your final conclusion is correct, but I think you are getting the analytics wrong by not including at least a small percentage of 3♦-2 or even -3. +500 and +800 usually imp out well.

I think a lot of it comes down to partnership style. For instance, I tend to balance light and accept heavy (I wouldn't bid 4♠ here without near-opening values or a _Really_ good ♠ suit + shortness.) - and that would make me lean away form passing. OTOH, versus a partner I know to balance timidly, I would be more likely to pass since it's much less likely to be a "courtest" X.

[nullve]

 miamijd, on 2018-July-02, 11:38, said:

Let's say the opposing N/S at the other table bids a normal 3S:

Both make: You go -670 at your table and -140 at the other: Lose 13 instead of a push if you bid 3S.

3S makes but 3D is off one: You score +200 at your table and -140 at the other: Win 2 instead of the push you get for bidding 3S.

3S is off one but 3D makes: You go -670 at your table and +100 at the other: Lose 11 instead of the push you get for bidding 3S.

Both contracts are off one: You go +200 and +100: Win 7 instead of a push.

At IMPs, for pass to be right, you need to be danged sure you are beating 3D. With one defensive trick, I'm not sure of that at all, so I can't pass (with AT9x of diamonds, I would consider a pass).

If LoTT holds, then there are at least 16 total trumps in all the cases you mention. But do you have any reason to believe there are more than around 16 total trumps on average? (My uneducated guess is that the average is higher, but still closer to 16 than 17.)

[rmnka447]

3 ♠ is virtually required with this hand.

Who knows exactly what partner has doubled on. If it's a very aggressive bid by partner, then 3 ♦ may make giving up a VUL game swing. If 3 ♠ goes down, them's the breaks. OTOH, partner might have the biggest bone crusher 4=4=1=4 ever and just needs to find a fit to bid game. Can you beat 3 ♦ enough to offset your VUL game? So it comes down to "Which would you feel better about defending in the post mortem Pass or 3 ♠?"

About the only way, I'd possibly think about pass would be if partner jumps up from the table and slams the double card on the table. But, of course, that would be unauthorized information, so I'd feel duty bound to bid 3 ♠ anyway.

[ahydra]

Thanks all. I actually passed, having bid 3S on many similar hands in the past and struggled in the ensuing 4-3 fit (partner never has four, of course). Actually partner had ♠AJ85 ♥AKT42 ♦2 ♣AK4 and we collected 500 but were cold for 6S (not that we would have got there), losing 4 IMPs.

Having reflected on it a bit, I was lucky to get 500. It would be easy for East to hold one of partner's kings and then I'm only collecting 200 against 620. On a bad day it even makes and then you get kicked off the team

ahydra

[nullve]

 ahydra, on 2018-July-03, 02:59, said:

Actually partner had ♠AJ85 ♥AKT42 ♦2 ♣AK4 and we collected 500 but were cold for 6S (not that we would have got there), losing 4 IMPs.

Having reflected on it a bit, I was lucky to get 500. It would be easy for East to hold one of partner's kings and then I'm only collecting 200 against 620.

So you're saying there were 12 tricks in spades and 8 tricks in diamonds, 20 tricks in all? I know LoTT isn't perfect, but it is seldom off by more than 1. On this hand it was off by 4?

 ahydra, on 2018-July-03, 02:59, said:

On a bad day it even makes and then you get kicked off the team

Then your teammates should try something like

predeal north SQT64, H873, DA965, CT6
predeal south SAJ85, HAKT42, D2, CAK4
condition hcp(west)<11 and diamonds(west)>6

with West as dealer at a teaching table on BBO, to get a feeling for how likely -670 is compared with +800.