Posted 2005-May-03, 09:21
Fluffy is right, and really doesn't need to think about it any longer.
You are in a pickle. You need clubs to be 3-2, are forced to ruff this heart now, you will have to lose the lead twice (leading towards KQ of spades, leading towards diamond queen). They will return hearts each time, forcing you to ruff... so what you can and can not do.
1) You can not play three rounds of trumps now (else they cash another heart and their diamond/spade winners.
2) You can not afford to hook EAST for club jack. For even if he has three to the jack, will not help you. You will be forced to ruff three hearts (one now, one when you knock out the spade ACE, one when you knock out the diamond king). So one fo the ruffs will be with the ACE, KING or QUEEN of clubs.
You wlll need to, eventually, cash two clubs, and ruff the three hearts (either they force you or you do so yourself, effecting a dummy reveral). You need the club Jack to be doubleton. So you win three clubs in hand by ruffing, the club AK in hand, and then the club TEN in dummy for six club tricks. You also win 2D, and 2S. There really isn't any other way to 10 tricks I don't think. So you need WEST to be 5-4-2-2 (if he has six spades, they can get a spade ruff) with the doubleton club jack. Not great odds, but go for it.
ben
--Ben--