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Play 3 NT

#1 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 08:36



IMPs, you reached to 3 NT and opponents were silent through out after weak NT opening by S and 3 NT by North.
Lead = 3 (4th best)

EDIT: This problem is more for intermediate players so perhaps it is better adv+ players to hide their replies. Thanks!
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#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 09:20

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#3 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 09:51

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#4 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 15:08

View PostCyberyeti, on 2018-March-21, 09:51, said:

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ahydra
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#5 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 15:15

View Postahydra, on 2018-March-21, 15:08, said:

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ahydra

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#6 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 21:32

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

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#7 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-21, 22:23

View Postahydra, on 2018-March-21, 21:32, said:

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

Defenders vary their leading styles. Hence, Cyberyeti's line is no cinch. It is simply the line overwhelmingly likely to succeed.
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#8 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-March-22, 06:07

View Postahydra, on 2018-March-21, 21:32, said:

Wish I played in your games Cyber, they sound much easier. Round here people lead just about anything (e.g. just the other day someone led a diamond from two small against my unopposed-auction 3NT and caught their partner with six).

Spoiler


ahydra


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#9 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-March-24, 01:10

Good job Cyber!

I also agree to those who said people tend to lead their 4th best of their 5 card suit. Of course it is not guaranteed but as Nige1 said this is the line which succeeds much more often than any other possible line.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#10 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2018-March-24, 19:45

Looks like a hand from "How to Read Your Opponents Cards".
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#11 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2018-March-24, 19:47

Double
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#12 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2018-March-24, 19:50

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high rather than low on this auction.
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#13 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-March-25, 03:53

View PostBillPatch, on 2018-March-24, 19:50, said:

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high rather than low on this auction.


Yes, a high spade is much more likely to be from 4 when a 5 card suit is held than a low one.
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#14 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-March-25, 16:03

View PostBillPatch, on 2018-March-24, 19:50, said:

Good job Cyber! Another reason for the rarity of fourth best from QJxx Kxxx Jxxxxx - is that Byrd & Anthias correctly would recommend the high rather than low on this auction.

What do you mean by "correctly"? It seems obvious to me that double dummy analysis favours high from QJxx compared to low.

If they really recommend leading high from QJxx just based on double dummy simulations the book is worse than I thought.
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#15 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2018-March-25, 20:53

View Postcherdano, on 2018-March-25, 16:03, said:

What do you mean by "correctly"? It seems obvious to me that double dummy analysis favours high from QJxx compared to low.

If they really recommend leading high from QJxx just based on double dummy simulations the book is worse than I thought.

Their double dummy analysis is more nuanced than that. Only when the bidding clearly favors majors, such as when the auction goes directly to 3 NT without Stayman does one favor the lead from QJxx, JTxx, T9xx, or longer.
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#16 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-March-26, 06:20

View PostBillPatch, on 2018-March-25, 20:53, said:

Their double dummy analysis is more nuanced than that. Only when the bidding clearly favors majors, such as when the auction goes directly to 3 NT without Stayman does one favor the lead from QJxx, JTxx, T9xx, or longer.

I was only commenting on the choice of leading high or low from QJxx - assuming that's the suit you have decided to lead.
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