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Hope for the best Play problem

#1 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-15, 21:35


Vanderbilt teams KO round of 16. Imps
North is declarer in 3N.
East leads T to West's A
West returns 2 and East follows with 5.

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#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 01:57

It looks like we need rather a lot:
(1) Spades 4-4.
(2) Club ace with west.
(3) Heart queen with east.
(4) Take the right diamond finesse.

East has the ace of spades and we need east to hold the queen of hearts (6 points).
West seems to have the queen and jack of spades and we need west to have the ace of clubs (7 points).

There seems like nothing much to go on as to who has the queen of diamonds. I can't see any line except taking a finesse in diamonds - probably against west since we also need diamonds to be 3-2 if we are finessing against east.

I must have missed something clever here - but can't see what?
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#3 User is offline   fourdad 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 02:22

why 3NT? If the bid is 1D rather than 1H, N bids 2D and u do not end in a silly game.
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 03:30

View Postfourdad, on 2018-March-16, 02:22, said:

why 3NT? If the bid is 1D rather than 1H, N bids 2D and u do not end in a silly game.


Combined flattish 24 count with stops in all suits will very often make game, it just happens to be silly in this case, if you bid 2 you will miss some good games as well as the silly ones.
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#5 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 03:49

View Postfourdad, on 2018-March-16, 02:22, said:

why 3NT? If the bid is 1D rather than 1H, N bids 2D and u do not end in a silly game.


I prefer to play four-card majors, opening a major before a minor and in this system it is normal to bid suits up the line showing diamonds before hearts. But I believe that playing five-card majors it is normal to respond in a major before a minor, so that the major isn't lost when opener rebids 1NT.

I don't think that south is worth a 3NT bid - except that you are vulnerable at teams and you really can't afford to miss vulnerable games. There is often more play for game than this!
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#6 User is offline   kbrat 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 03:52

Win 2nd spade, heart to J, diamond to T, holds for 9 tricks, with A of clubs in W, by trick 6.

Me and p would bid this, and my luck would put the !dQ on the wrong side either way.
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#7 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 06:55

I would open 1 with the North hand. It's an awkward hand to rebid depending on partner's response, and I'd rather treat it as a minor two-suiter, telling a small lie to partner by rebidding 2 on the second round. Given that 3NT is a poor percentage contract, I am perhaps resulting but in Acol bidding, let alone 2/1 or SAYC I would certainly hesitate opening 1NT(Weak) with 2-2-4-5.
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#8 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 10:33

View PostTramticket, on 2018-March-16, 01:57, said:

vIt looks like we need rather a lot:
(1) Spades 4-4.
(2) Club ace with west.
(3) Heart queen with east.
(4) Take the right diamond finesse.
East has the ace of spades and we need east to hold the queen of hearts (6 points).
West seems to have the queen and jack of spades and we need west to have the ace of clubs (7 points).
There seems like nothing much to go on as to who has the queen of diamonds. I can't see any line except taking a finesse in diamonds - probably against west since we also need diamonds to be 3-2 if we are finessing against east.
I must have missed something clever here - but can't see what?

Declarer needs to find Q. As Tramticket points out, a priori, his best chance is to take 2 finesses against West.
Before committing himself, he should indulge in some wishful thinking. He hopes East holds Q and West holds A i.e. he places West with AJ and A. Adding Q would give West 11 HCP -- a probable opener, 1st in hand, in a Vanderbilt context. West is also likely to hold a quack, which would be the icing on the cake. Anyway 3N was defeated in the other room but Bilde successfully finessed East for both red Qs, to make his contract. Arguably, Bilde went with the odds.

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#9 User is offline   pescetom 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 10:41

View PostTramticket, on 2018-March-16, 03:49, said:

I prefer to play four-card majors, opening a major before a minor and in this system it is normal to bid suits up the line showing diamonds before hearts. But I believe that playing five-card majors it is normal to respond in a major before a minor, so that the major isn't lost when opener rebids 1NT.

I don't think that south is worth a 3NT bid - except that you are vulnerable at teams and you really can't afford to miss vulnerable games. There is often more play for game than this!


Playing five-card majors it is fairly normal to respond in a major before diamonds, but when the opener rebids 1NT it is NOT normal for responder to jump to 3NT when he has the other major completely unstopped.

But then Agustin Madala is one of the best players in the world, so who am I to judge :)
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#10 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 12:02

View Postnige1, on 2018-March-16, 10:33, said:


Declarer needs to find Q. As Tramticket points out, a priori, his best chance is to take 2 finesses against West.
Before committing himself, he should indulge in some wishful thinking. He hopes East holds Q and West holds A i.e. he places West with AJ and A. Adding Q would give West 11 HCP -- a probable opener, 1st in hand, in a Vanderbilt context. West is also likely to hold a quack, which would be the icing on the cake. Anyway 3N was defeated in the other room but Bilde successfully finessed East for both red Qs, to make his contract. Arguably, Bilde went with the odds.


Yes, I thought that Bilde played it correctly, and was surprised when Gold went off in the other room. Unfortunately the Vugraph operator was pfaffing around correcting a misscored earlier board and missed the play, but it seems to have been to finesse the diamond the other way.
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#11 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 12:49

View Postnige1, on 2018-March-16, 10:33, said:


Declarer needs to find Q. As Tramticket points out, a priori, his best chance is to take 2 finesses against West.
Before committing himself, he should indulge in some wishful thinking. He hopes East holds Q and West holds A i.e. he places West with AJ and A. Adding Q would give West 11 HCP -- a probable opener, 1st in hand, in a Vanderbilt context. West is also likely to hold a quack, which would be the icing on the cake. Anyway 3N was defeated in the other room but Bilde successfully finessed East for both red Qs, to make his contract. Arguably, Bilde went with the odds.



I knew I'd missed something - west had the ace of spades. Logic was fine, but not my ability to read.
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#12 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2018-March-16, 21:29

View Postnige1, on 2018-March-16, 10:33, said:


Declarer needs to find Q. As Tramticket points out, a priori, his best chance is to take 2 finesses against West.
Before committing himself, he should indulge in some wishful thinking. He hopes East holds Q and West holds A i.e. he places West with AJ and A. Adding Q would give West 11 HCP -- a probable opener, 1st in hand, in a Vanderbilt context. West is also likely to hold a quack, which would be the icing on the cake. Anyway 3N was defeated in the other room but Bilde successfully finessed East for both red Qs, to make his contract. Arguably, Bilde went with the odds.


Exactly.

The lead of 10 would seem to deny the J as it's usual to lead J from J109(...). If West held AJ2, it would be proper to return the J to unblock . Besides if break 5-3 you can't make the hand anyhow (4 , A cash]. So assume 4-4 with West holding AJ?2. If A is with East, you can't make 3 NT either as the spots are poor and the opponents can produce 2+ tricks unless somehow you can scope out a very, very unlikely stiff A with East and duck the first lead of a toward dummy.

Then the rest of your logic follows perfectly.

BTW, if East holds 4 to the Q, you can still make if West holds the stiff 9, that A8 in the South isn't insignificant and gives that small extra chance.
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#13 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2018-March-17, 18:08

I don't get it. 1 spade, 4 diamonds, and 3 hearts is still only 8 tricks.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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#14 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2018-March-18, 09:47

View PostWinstonm, on 2018-March-17, 18:08, said:

I don't get it. 1 spade, 4 diamonds, and 3 hearts is still only 8 tricks.


And a club up for 9.
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#15 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2018-March-18, 09:53

Hand looks like an open book since nearly everyone opens 11 counts now. Still, I think its correct hook diamonds first and make sure they are 32.
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#16 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-18, 12:23

View PostPhil, on 2018-March-18, 09:53, said:

Hand looks like an open book since nearly everyone opens 11 counts now. Still, I think its correct hook diamonds first and make sure they are 32.

After winning the 2nd , Bilde continued K, J.



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#17 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2018-March-18, 13:41

View PostPhil, on 2018-March-18, 09:47, said:

And a club up for 9.


I see - spades are 4/4.
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