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Long Diamonds

#21 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2017-December-15, 22:12

View Postcleveritis, on 2017-December-15, 14:10, said:

There is never a RIGHT answer on these weird hands - the percentage bid at love all is 3N. They are very likely cold for game - and we might even make +430 if they make the wrong lead/ switch. They need to have worked out what a cold double of 3N means, what 4m means, what 4M can or can't be... it is VERY hard... What do you bid holding AQJxx, KQtx, x, Axx over 1N - 3N by opps... partner leads heart from Kxx, J9xxxx, xx,xx... unlucky! if it goes double pass pass, I will bid 5 diamonds...


I'm not so sure that the percentage bid is 3NT, even at teams (MPs it's an obvious 5D bid over 1NT). There are hands where 3NT makes and 5D doesn't, and there are hands where 5D makes and 3NT doesn't. But on the hands where 5D fails, it won'b do so by much. On the hands where 3NT fails, it could be down 5 rather easily. Going -50 rather than -250 does save some IMPs.

I think 5D directly over 1NT has to be reasonable. No need to get fancy here.

Cheers,
Mike
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#22 User is offline   cleveritis 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 01:05

I think the worst bids are 3d pre-emptive because they can make light take out double, or 2n and pass 3d or complete to 3d over 3c because again - now marginal 5512 or 4513 can easily come in.
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#23 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 03:58

I find it difficult for anyone to consider passing with a known 11 card fit, possibly 12, in addition to they can take a lot of tricks some where. It is even possible one of the opps will appreciate its their hand. 5D is clear.
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#24 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 08:08

A little side question as I think most posters are working within a "3 or 5" framework. If you had the 4 level available, either through a Texas-style 4 puppet or just a natural, weak 4 response, would you prefer to use it or stick with your original choice?
(-: Zel :-)
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#25 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 10:15

View Postcleveritis, on 2017-December-15, 14:10, said:

There is never a RIGHT answer on these weird hands - the percentage bid at love all is 3N. They are very likely cold for game - and we might even make +430 if they make the wrong lead/ switch. They need to have worked out what a cold double of 3N means, what 4m means, what 4M can or can't be... it is VERY hard... What do you bid holding AQJxx, KQtx, x, Axx over 1N - 3N by opps... partner leads heart from Kxx, J9xxxx, xx,xx... unlucky! if it goes double pass pass, I will bid 5 diamonds...

When one holds the major two suiter we bid 4D ,take out in majors with longer spades.Reverse the majors and the bid is now 4C,take out in majors with longer hearts.
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#26 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 10:15

View Postcleveritis, on 2017-December-15, 14:10, said:

There is never a RIGHT answer on these weird hands - the percentage bid at love all is 3N. They are very likely cold for game - and we might even make +430 if they make the wrong lead/ switch. They need to have worked out what a cold double of 3N means, what 4m means, what 4M can or can't be... it is VERY hard... What do you bid holding AQJxx, KQtx, x, Axx over 1N - 3N by opps... partner leads heart from Kxx, J9xxxx, xx,xx... unlucky! if it goes double pass pass, I will bid 5 diamonds...

When one holds the major two suiter we bid 4D ,take out in majors with longer spades.Reverse the majors and the bid is now 4C,take out in majors with longer hearts.
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#27 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 10:15

View Postcleveritis, on 2017-December-15, 14:10, said:

There is never a RIGHT answer on these weird hands - the percentage bid at love all is 3N. They are very likely cold for game - and we might even make +430 if they make the wrong lead/ switch. They need to have worked out what a cold double of 3N means, what 4m means, what 4M can or can't be... it is VERY hard... What do you bid holding AQJxx, KQtx, x, Axx over 1N - 3N by opps... partner leads heart from Kxx, J9xxxx, xx,xx... unlucky! if it goes double pass pass, I will bid 5 diamonds...

When one holds the major two suiter we bid 4D ,take out in majors with longer spades.Reverse the majors and the bid is now 4C,take out in majors with longer hearts.
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#28 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 10:24

View Postcleveritis, on 2017-December-15, 14:10, said:

There is never a RIGHT answer on these weird hands - the percentage bid at love all is 3N. They are very likely cold for game - and we might even make +430 if they make the wrong lead/ switch. They need to have worked out what a cold double of 3N means, what 4m means, what 4M can or can't be... it is VERY hard... What do you bid holding AQJxx, KQtx, x, Axx over 1N - 3N by opps... partner leads heart from Kxx, J9xxxx, xx,xx... unlucky! if it goes double pass pass, I will bid 5 diamonds...

We bid 4D a takeout in majors with longer spades and with longer hearts we bid 4C as the take out.This is the treatment for a hand like the one posed as a problematic situation by you.
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#29 User is offline   bluechip10 

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Posted 2017-December-16, 12:27

View PostTramticket, on 2017-December-14, 05:48, said:



Teams of 4 match, all non-vul, spots approximate.

Partner deals and opens a weak NT. What is your plan?

If you choose to bid 2NT (transfer to diamonds), opponents remain silent and partner bids 3, (promising QXX or better in diamonds). What now?
I'm an aggressive bidder. I bid 5 diamonds with reasonable expectation to make. If all your partner had was 3 aces, you may even miss slam. But you can check that with blackwood if you choose. Another reason for jumping to game is that the opps probably have a game in the majors themselves. I have done this all the time with great success.
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#30 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2017-December-17, 01:42

In a pairs game with a field mostly playing strong NT, I would've bid 3N over 1N, hoping to steal a top on the wrong lead and figuring 3N down a lot undoubled could still leave us ahead of all the pairs that opened lower and let their opponents in. There's less merit to this at teams (whether IMPs or BAM), but I'd consider it.

Having invited opponents to try to cash 5 tricks off the top with the minor suit transfer, I'm jumping to 5D now.
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#31 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2017-December-21, 09:56

Hi,

#1 if I have a way to show the diamonds, I will use it, ..., I can always bid 5D later.
#2 If I pass now, ... they know, I am weak, and that we have a 9 card fit, ..., still they
need to get in at the 3 level.
Does Qxx or better, imply, that partner has the Ace? Or is xxxx better than Qxx?
I will pass, seeing where they end up, but I am considering 3NT, it will be hard for them
to double this, but if we get a lead director, I will retreat to 4D.
If they reach 4M, I will sacrifice in 5D, but will let them play 3M.

The problem with a 5D bid (direct or delayed): It is easy to double, 1 person only needs 2 1/2
tricks in his own hand.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#32 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-22, 08:13

Poll posted to BridgeWinners:
https://bridgewinner...m-2-5c19iwi8ot/
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#33 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-December-22, 09:41

View Postnige1, on 2017-December-22, 08:13, said:

Poll posted to BridgeWinners:
https://bridgewinner...m-2-5c19iwi8ot/

Interesting. Thanks Nigel.
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#34 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-December-22, 09:47

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2017-December-21, 09:56, said:

Does Qxx or better, imply, that partner has the Ace? Or is xxxx better than Qxx?


Yes, partner has the ace. Perhaps our agreement should be stated as "at least a three-card suit including at least one of the top three honours".
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#35 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-23, 16:27

Simulation using Thomas Andrew's scripting language
vindicating Mr Ace and co:
Shows 5D more likely to make than 3N at double-dummy
/** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***
LongD.ds. 22 Dec 2017. Nigel Guthrie. 
Trick expectation at double-dummy.
Dealer by Hans van Staveren & Henk Uijterwaal
http://dealergib1.bridgebase.com/tools/dealer/dealer.php
*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** **/
predeal east S9, H7, DKQJT8642, C753

# 1N opener
ntHCP = 12
wHCP = hcp (west)
w1N =
(shape (west, any 4333 + any 4432 + any 5332) and 
  (ntHCP <= wHCP or wHCP <= ntHCP + 2))

# Tricks test. 
produce 100
condition w1N
action
frequency "Tricks taken by West in 3N" (tricks( west, notrump), 9, 13),
frequency "Tricks taken by West in 5D" (tricks( west, diamonds), 11, 13),


Results
Frequency Tricks taken by West in 3N: 
Low 85
9      8	
10    2
11    3
12    1	
13    1 

Frequency Tricks taken by West in 5D: 
Low 80
11    13
12	6
13    1 
Generated 310 hands 
Produced 100 hands 
Initial random seed 1514067121 
Time needed    2.637 sec

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#36 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2017-December-23, 16:36

View Postnige1, on 2017-December-23, 16:27, said:

Simulation using Thomas Andrew's scripting language

Do you not also need to add the information that Opener has Axx(x)(x)?
(-: Zel :-)
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#37 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-23, 16:51

View PostZelandakh, on 2017-December-23, 16:36, said:

Do you not also need to add the information that Opener has Axx(x)(x)?

Only if responder intends to bid 2N, which few BBOers would.
Interestingly, 2N was the most common choice on Bridgewinners.

As a crude approximation to Zelandkh's suggestion, I predealt West Axx;
but it made hardly any difference to the results

This post has been edited by nige1: 2017-December-23, 17:22

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