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Pass or act?

#1 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2017-November-12, 07:35

IMPs, all green, bidding goes 1H pass 4H (preemptive w/ long trumps and less than 9 HCPs), was I so crazy to act / was I too disciplined to pass (I won't give you straight away what happenned😉) with:

AKxx
xx
K8xxxx
x

PM coming soon!
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#2 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-November-12, 10:33

Ask yourself a few questions before bidding

a) Are the opponents using Bergen responses? (This might clarify whether responder has 4 or 5 card support.)
b) Are you and your partner using weak jump overcalls?
c) What shape is your partner likely to be if the opponents have raised to 4 with 5 trumps?

I'm going to assume that the opponents have bid as per LOTT, so there is 5 card support, and this leaves your partner with probably 6331, 6421, 5431 or 4441 shape. With the last two, he'd make a takeout double if he had an opening hand; with the first two assuming 6s in his hand he'd overcall 2 with about 10HCPs mimimum.

By my reckoning he is twice as likely to have either 4441 or 5431 shape than 6331 or 6421. (I have discounted the hands with 7 as partner is likely to have made a WJO.)

Even though he is unlikely to have an opening hand, you fit well, and personally I'd like to push to opponents to the 5 level if I can so I will chance a X, assuming that your partner does understand that you X on these sorts of hands when you have been put under pressure.
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#3 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2017-November-12, 16:17

Pass. I need a lot to make 4S (partner didn't overcall) or 5D. I don't need a lot to beat 4 (A or A).
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#4 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2017-November-12, 18:58

A consideration is that the AK is in a 4-card suit so more likely that both will cash on defense. Pass.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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#5 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 05:11

pass. you have mountains of defence.
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 05:49

View Postcherdano, on 2017-November-12, 16:17, said:

Pass. I need a lot to make 4S (partner didn't overcall) or 5D. I don't need a lot to beat 4 (A or A).


I'd pass, you don't need a lot to make 4, Qxxxx, x, Axx, xxxx one of 4 and 4 will make, possibly both, but the potential downside is massive.
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#7 User is offline   lycier 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 05:59

No way to pick up other suits, only pass.
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#8 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 06:09

View Postwank, on 2017-November-13, 05:11, said:

pass. you have mountains of defence.


View PostCyberyeti, on 2017-November-13, 05:49, said:

I'd pass, you don't need a lot to make 4, Qxxxx, x, Axx, xxxx one of 4 and 4 will make, possibly both, but the potential downside is massive.


Actually, I can't fault either of those statements, and I did say that I would chance a Dbl. It certainly would be with a very experienced partner, not a pick-up game. I am not looking to win the contract but to push the opponents one level higher. Partner should realise I know far more about his hand, than he does about mine, and he shouldn't bid again or interpret a pass by me as forcing.

As Cyberyeti rightly says the potential downside [of competing] is massive, but there's also the potential downside of a double game swing if you don't act.

When I wrote my original post I did think the decision was borderline. I'd be interested what others say here.
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#9 User is offline   RD350LC 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 08:23

View Postapollo1201, on 2017-November-12, 07:35, said:

IMPs, all green, bidding goes 1H pass 4H (preemptive w/ long trumps and less than 9 HCPs), was I so crazy to act / was I too disciplined to pass (I won't give you straight away what happenned😉) with:

AKxx
xx
K8xxxx
x

PM coming soon!

My view is that if you have good opps, and a good partner, I would take action-likely with a double. Partner will not have 5 spades, but he could have 4 spades. If p responds with 5C, then I would run to 5D (as p had not made a weak jump overcall).
However, with most players that I have seen on bbo, the 4H bidder could have 13+ hcp, and not necessarily a 5 card heart suit. In that case, I would pass like a shot.
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#10 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 11:29

I'm passing.

It is often a good idea to look at your holding in the opponents' suit and holding a small doubleton is often the worst possible news:
- If the opponents have a nine-card fit then partner also has a doubleton and you are probably looking at two heart losers in 4 or 5m.
- If opponents have a ten or eleven-card fit then partner is short in their suit, but hasn't bid yet - which suggests that partner doesn't have much.

In either case there is an indication that game is against the odds. Meanwhile we have some defence and some hopes of defeating 4.
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#11 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 11:52

Pass. Leaving aside the technical issues (which I also think suggest that pass is the wisest choice) taking action risks a major upset to team morale. No team mate would criticise you for passing, and if both 4H and 4S are making it could still be a flat board. However if you bid and it goes wrong, perhaps conceding 1100 or more, maybe with 4H not even making, team mates will not be best pleased. Nobody likes to sweat for board after board, trying to avoid errors, only for another team member to chuck imps away with one rash bid.
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#12 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 12:15

View PostGrahamJson, on 2017-November-13, 11:52, said:

perhaps conceding 1100


It is green/green so three down non-vulnerable doubled for 500 isn't so much of a disaster if they can make 420 or 450 with a game, Graham.
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#13 User is offline   apollo1201 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 13:56

Thanks all for your comments. On the reflection, X is more a MP than IMP move, although green is not too dreadful (but red no way).

To give a bit more "table feelin", LHO and RHO are two friendly grannies that should be trusted to have their 10-card fit (RHO was almost bouncing on her chair and Ininterpreted that as she was happy to preempt me and would have a textbook hand for that).

I too considered the risk of acting vs leaving them quiet but I also thought they would bid 1 more for the road like others pointed out. So I ventured a X (planning to pass 5C undoubled that can't cost more than 550, and running if Xed).

Partner turned out with an ugly 54 minors hand and the unexpected singleton HA, bid 4NT and I ended up in 5DX for -1 but I still can't figure out how I was allowed not to lose a single S trick (should be -2 with AQD sitting behind me in a very heavy HCP hand with 3 small S who proved right not bidding 5).

Team members were allowed to play in 4H making.
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#14 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 14:17

View Postapollo1201, on 2017-November-13, 13:56, said:

To give a bit more "table feelin", LHO and RHO are two friendly grannies that should be trusted to have their 10-card fit (RHO was almost bouncing on her chair and Ininterpreted that as she was happy to preempt me and would have a textbook hand for that).


Friendly grannies bouncing. That's the most descriptive case of UI I have ever heard. lol! :)
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#15 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 14:46

View Postapollo1201, on 2017-November-12, 07:35, said:

IMPs, all green, bidding goes 1H pass 4H (preemptive w/ long trumps and less than 9 HCPs), was I so crazy to act / was I too disciplined to pass (I won't give you straight away what happenned😉) with:

AKxx
xx
K8xxxx
x

PM coming soon!


A lot depends on the opponents' bidding style. If you can trust RHO to have five hearts, then it seems like bidding is right, especially at IMPs. The opponents have a 10-fit; you should have at least a nine-fit. If they can make 4H, you should be down only 1 in 4S or 2 at 5m. Even if they can make 5H, you at worst should be -3 in 5D. And of course, if partner has something like

Qxxxx x Ax xxxxx

you will make 4S and/or likely defeat 5H (though probably not 4H).

I think I would X and correct 5C to 5D (assuming you play equal-level conversion and partner won't take this as a huge hand). This is especially true at IMPs, where the reward for being right is huge and the risk for being wrong isn't hideous.

Now, of course, if the opponents bid 4H on a wide variety of hands, then it's a whole different story.

Cheers,
mike
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#16 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 15:41

What was partner leading vs 4H if you'd passed? If a club, bad luck. If not, good sac. :)

ahydra
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#17 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 16:18

View Postahydra, on 2017-November-13, 15:41, said:

What was partner leading vs 4H if you'd passed? If a club, bad luck. If not, good sac. :)

ahydra


Spade will prob do, you can switch to a club
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#18 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 16:42

View PostCyberyeti, on 2017-November-13, 05:49, said:

I'd pass, you don't need a lot to make 4, Qxxxx, x, Axx, xxxx one of 4 and 4 will make, possibly both, but the potential downside is massive.

That's a lot for a hand that didn't overcall 1. Add J or J and I would definitely bid 1.
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#19 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2017-November-13, 17:24

View Postcherdano, on 2017-November-13, 16:42, said:

That's a lot for a hand that didn't overcall 1. Add J or J and I would definitely bid 1.


You might, we'd need an ace more than that, 2 or nothing for us and with most of the hand outside the spade suit, would be nothing.
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