[lenze]

Clyde Love tells us

"Countless multitudes of contracts fail because declarer wouldn't lead the last trump"

His advice would have served well on this hand from a Regional Swiss teams.

         S-Q4
         H-J854
         D-A863
         C-AJ5

   S-T853            S-J976
   H-T73             H-6
   D-4              D-KQ975
   C-T8743          C-Q96

         S-AK2
         H-AKQ92
         D-JT2
         C-K2

6 Hearts by South. After the 4 of diamonds lead, the play was the same at both tables.

Diamond A
J,A,K Hearts
3 spades
Heart Q
4th trump
Club finesse (down two)

[EricK]

Quote

Clyde Love tells us

"Countless multitudes of contracts fail because declarer wouldn't lead the last trump"

His advice would have served well on this hand from a Regional Swiss teams.

         S-Q4
         H-J854
         D-A863
         C-AJ5

   S-T853            S-J976
   H-T73             H-6
   D-4              D-KQ975
   C-T8743          C-Q96

         S-AK2
         H-AKQ92
         D-JT2
         C-K2

6 Hearts by South. After the 4 of diamonds lead, the play was the same at both tables.

Diamond A
J,A,K Hearts
3 spades
Heart Q
4th trump
Club finesse (down two)

I don't think this helps. After 3 rounds of Spades, 1 Diamond and 5 rounds of trumps, East comes down to DKQ CQ9 and South, who will know that clubs were originally 5-3 (assuming he reads the diamond lead as a singleton) will still finesse.

Or am I missing something?

Eric

[lenze]

Quote

I don't think this helps. After 3 rounds of Spades, 1 Diamond and 5 rounds of trumps, East comes down to DKQ CQ9 and South, who will know that clubs were originally 5-3 (assuming he reads the diamond lead as a singleton) will still finesse.

Or am I missing something?

Eric

No Eric, you are not missing anything, but I'm betting that east is not that cleaver. Plus, unless east is a REAL pro, there will be a major wiggle factor on the last trump.

[luis]

The famous "movement factor" that is measured by good declarers using a modified Mercalli scale.
The last trump would surely have generated a 5.3 movement in the modified Mercalli scale from east :-)

[EricK]

Quote

The famous "movement factor" that is measured by good declarers using a modified Mercalli scale.
The last trump would surely have generated a 5.3 movement in the modified Mercalli scale from east :-)

I think you are overestimating how hard it is for East to unguard the CQ, as this is really an easy hand for East to count too (the lead, plus South's not ruffing a spade gives him a 3532 hand with the JT of diamonds).

I am willing to grant that a fair number of players would hesitate in East's seat, but a large number of players who were not even close to being real pros would get it right.

Eric