[P_Marlowe]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-11, 19:14, said:

Double dummy isn't a good gauge. If I lead the S4 on this hand, my double dummy partner will defend perfectly, but it's likely my human partner will be totally misled and misdefend as a result.

The argument is partially true, but also misses something.

If deciding, what to lead, it is common advice, to ask, what lead requires the least from
partner. Which holding in the 3 unknown hands are good for a specific lead, which are not.
And to do this, you should construct sample hands in your mind.
In the given situation, if we choose spade, we lead from our suit shortage through their
suit length to our suit length. We also lead through most of their honors, to some of our
honors.
A DD simulation can give you a pretty good idea, how likely you are blowing a trick, if you
go for spade vs. not going for spade. And the DD will construct 100-1000 hands.
The only read free parameter is, how good the spade suit is, that partner can still hold,
lots of peoble would go in with ATxxx and 10 HCP, most will go in with AKxxx even red,
for some 9xx xxx will do, with 10 HCP on the side, not for me, ...

Finally: We have a situation, when touching every suit is risky, and the only information we
have is, that heart is their suit, and that the spades will be likely break, giving each side
combined 6 or 7cards.
If spades hits partners 5 carder, it will be brilliant, if we hit his 4 carder,it may or may
not cost.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: The argument, that partner is misdefending id also only half true, the knowledge that partner
goes for DD leads, what ever this means in a sheat free context, should be a partnership agreement,
and if oppoenents ask, you can tell them that.

[Kaitlyn S]

johnu, on 2017-July-11, 22:59, said:

But you bring up a point frequently brought up by double dummy haters. My question is if not double dummy analyzers, what??? Where and how are going to find 10, 50, 100, 200+ hands to do a single dummy analysis and then adjust for strength of bidding and play by all 4 players in the hand?

I wasn't a double dummy hater until someone ran a simulation with thousands of deals to "prove" that four queens were better than two aces.

[Winstonm]

I shall rate this lead: it sucks....when you are declarer....and it works.

[P_Marlowe]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-12, 09:06, said:

I wasn't a double dummy hater until someone ran a simulation with thousands of deals to "prove" that four queens were better than two aces.

Than you are also a statistics hater?
I understand the point, ..., the simulation is not the issue, but that peoble, dont try
to figure out, why the result of a given simulation is as it is.
If a simulation / statistical analysis tells you something that is contraire to any common
logic, repeat it, and if the same result showes u,p check the input again and run the whole
process again. Try even to restart from scratch.
And only after a while, if the output is still the same, try to believe it, ..., and the hardest
part begins, try to understand it, what have you overlooked the whole time.

[johnu]

Kaitlyn S, on 2017-July-12, 09:06, said:

I wasn't a double dummy hater until someone ran a simulation with thousands of deals to "prove" that four queens were better than two aces.

Sounds like an "interesting" idea. In poker, no question that 4 queens beat 2 aces every day of the year.