[MrAce]

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IMPs

Lead ♣ Q

[kenberg]

Lay 6H? Do I have to? Well, maybe I can get my name in the paper.

Takke the club Ace, throwing a diamond honor from the hand. Two rounds of diamonds. Two rounds of hearts ending in dummy, hopefully everyone follows. Diamond J. If it isn't ruffed, lead the diamond T throwing another spade and claim 12 tricks.

This needs that hearts are 3-2, reasonable, and that diamonds are either 3-3 or else, if 4-2, that the three hearts and the four diamonds are in the same hand.

I have been in worse slams. I try not to be.

Maybe there is a better line? [Much improved version is below]

[rmnka447]

I don't think the slam can be made if trumps are 4-1.

I'm pitching a ♠ on ♣ A, then playing 3 rounds of ♦. If diamonds are 3-3, you draw 2 rounds of trump and discard your last low ♠ on ♦ J which should be about 36% of the time. If the third round is ruffed, there's a slightly higher probability that the ruffing hand has 3 trumps (9/7 on vacant places) which makes that overall about 27% of the time (56.25% of the time that ♦ are 4-2).

[Cyberyeti]

rmnka447, on 2017-March-23, 12:51, said:

I don't think the slam can be made if trumps are 4-1.

I'm pitching a ♠ on ♣ A, then playing 3 rounds of ♦. If diamonds are 3-3, you draw 2 rounds of trump and discard your last low ♠ on ♦ J which should be about 36% of the time. If the third round is ruffed, there's a slightly higher probability that the ruffing hand has 3 trumps (9/7 on vacant places) which makes that overall about 27% of the time (56.25% of the time that ♦ are 4-2).

I think Ken's line is better because it deals with the same hand holding doubletons in both red suits and works with 3-3 diamonds also.

[kenberg]

Upon reflection, I think I might be wrong. If Ds are 3-3 and hearts 3-2 any reasonable line works.if hearts are 4-1 nothing works. So suppose hearts are 3-2 and diamonds 4-2. On my line, if the third heart is with the short diamonds I am down. But the long heart is more apt to be with the short Ds. If I simply play off the top three diamond, he cannot profitably ruff. If he does, I win the return, play two rounds of hearts ending on the board, that draws trump, and I cash the last diamond.
And if he refuses to ruff the D, I cash two rounds of trump and lead the last D.

So, if I am right so far, pitching the honor works if the long heart is with the long Ds, not pitching it works if the long heart is with the short Ds (short Ds meaning 2Ds).

But maybe we can do better. Suppose Ds are 5-1. And still assume hearts 3-2, and that the three hearts are in the hand with the short Ds.
We ruff the club in hand, T1. We play on Ds. Suppose the second D is ruffed, and suppose the ruffer started with three hearts. I win any return, I play hearts ending on the board, thus drawing trump. I now play the club A throwing my last D from hand. The JT are good so I throw spades on them .


So I think this works providing the hearts are 3-2 and the Ds are either 3-3 or else the short Ds, either 1 or 2, are with the long hearts.

The reason for not playing the club Ace is that I want to discard a D honor on it if the Ds are 5-1, but not if they are 4-2.

Probably someone has called delay of game by this point, but this is my after some thought opinion.

[MrAce]

Finally... Ken got it right in his last reply.

Assuming that 3-2 trumps, cashing 3 round of diamonds make when they are 3-3 or 4-2 or even 5-1 if it is being ruffed by long trumps. You win whatever they exit and cash AK of trumps ending in dummy. Probability of diamonds being short in longer trump side is pretty strong compared to other line, which by the way has advantage ONLY when diamond shortness has also short hearts.

[kenberg]

MrAce, on 2017-March-23, 15:34, said:

Finally... Ken got it right in his last reply.

Assuming that 3-2 trumps, cashing 3 round of diamonds make when they are 3-3 or 4-2 or even 5-1 if it is being ruffed by long trumps. You win whatever they exit and cash AK of trumps ending in dummy. Probability of diamonds being short in longer trump side is pretty strong compared to other line, which by the way has advantage ONLY when diamond shortness has also short hearts.

It's amazing (well, not amazing really) how often there is a better plan than the first one that I think of. It's a very nice problem because the "win the ace and unblock the Ds" seemed very natural. Wrong, but natural.

[ahydra]

There's the technically correct line, and there's the once in a lifetime style points opportunity of discarding an Ace under an Ace... hopefully Law 77 in this year's laws includes allowance for this.

ahydra

[kenberg]

Trusting that (a), there is not much more to be said about this hand but (b) the general topic is interesting, I have another hand, one I was kibbing.

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NS were in the pessimistic contract of 6S but suppose you are trying to make 7. The opening lead is the diamond Q, you win, you lead a small spade, W discards a diamond. After thanking the bridge gods that you are not in 7, you win the K and lead the spade T. E, mistakenly if making 7 were the issue, cooperates by covering with the J and you win the Ace.

Making 7 is now not out of the question. How? Imagine that you are in 7 so that taking the rest is your only concern.

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So far E has followed low to the firsr D, and played the 3 and the J of spades, leaving him with the 865.

Caution: I am not sure that there is a unique solution here. I was looking at all four hands and what I have in mind works on that layout, a more lor less plausible one, and on some mild variants of it..

[nige1]

Good stuff Ken!
On this kind of layout (East with at least 4 red cards, at least 2 ♣s, and no void), at double-dummy, Gib confirms that there's no defence to a trump coup in 7♠.
As Kenberg points out, however, if declarer makes the natural play of cashing ♠K, then East can usually defeat the contract by refusing to cover dummy's next ♠

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If Declarer plays ♠K at trick 2 but East is 5422 or ♣QJ is doubleton, then there is no defence.

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