[dickiegera]

You are in a 6♦ contract and you need to play the diamond suit for no losers.

You hold AKJxxx dummy with entries hols 10xx.

Do you #! finease
#2 play for drop
#3 play honor first and return to dummy before big decision?

WHY?

WE play controls so 2Hearts shows 1 Ace or 2 Kings. 2 Spade bid and 3 Heart bids are natural

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[SteveMoe]

Two reactions then an answer:
1) the context of the entire hand is always important - so is the bidding.
2) the "x's" matter - holding 9's or 8's have an impact on the odds.

Try http://www.rpbridge....cgi-bin/xcc1.pl
Richard's site is highly manual but helps anyone visualize the reasons why a given line of play is best.

Taking three strategies:

• Play AK:------------------53.13% - catches 2-2(40.7%) and q-xxx (12.44%)
  
• Play A then finesse: 51.43% (loses to qxxx-void (4.78) but gains xxx-Q (6.22%)).
  
• Finesse:------------------45.22% (50%? - only if West does not cover from Q987). Since we assume they hold 9 and 8, the Q987 - void case loses one trick that you were never going to win).

The fourth strategy (Play A then lead small toward KJxxx) allows for the case where LHO plays xx. Now going up with the K is better (original probability Qxx-x 18.65% and xx-xQ as 20.35%). Notice that 20.35%/(18.65+20.35) = 52.17% - exactly what vacant spaces would predict (after LHO plays the second x, the odds are 12/23 that the Q is with RHO. You know 2 of LHO's cards leaving 11 spaces - and 1 of RHO's cards leaving 12 spaces. 12/23 = 0.5217).

[SteveMoe]

Thanks for the additional detail. Can you recall the opening lead?
It is possible on this hand that RHO is 3=3=4=3.
You might be able to get a partial count of the hand by playing off side suits and ruffing ♠s.
Likewise if LHO has ♠AK and ♣K, they wont have the ♦Q.